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Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008 , 12:01 a.m.

Epps: Belated SEC West predictions: Auburn edges LSU for top spot

A subpoena-flinging process server precluded me from submitting predictions at SEC Media Days. He forced me to follow around Phillip Fulmer and ask him about a piece of paper he supposedly didn’t receive.

(I like to imagine Fulmer rifling through individual sheets of paper in search of the subpoena and thinking, “Is this it? No, this is the 2005 offensive playbook. Let’s see, here’s, no, that’s a scholarship offer for Josh Bullocks — I was wondering where I put that — hmmm ...”)

I’ll start with SEC West predictions here and continue with SEC East predictions Wednesday. Remember, since I didn’t turn in predictions at media days, that immediately eliminates me from any discussion concerning the unidentified crazy person who picked Ole Miss to win the SEC championship.

1. Auburn (6-2)

In 2005, Urban Meyer came to the SEC with his new offense — he still can’t believe this — and finished fourth in the SEC in scoring and third in passing offense with personnel unsuitable for the spread. Chris Leak was running the spread option. Think about that.

And almost no one could stop it. Why? It was new.

Auburn’s offense is new. If you believe Tommy Tuberville, no one in the SEC has ever seen this type of offense. The Tigers have suitable offensive personnel, a good schedule — they love these even-numbered years on the Plains — and the typical fast and scary defense.

A win over LSU (home team has won every matchup this decade) in their usual ridiculously awesome game early in the season breaks the tie. I believe ESPN Classic already has “Instant Classic: LSU at Auburn” scheduled for Sunday, Sept. 21.

2. LSU (6-2)

Tennessee, in 1998, is the last repeat champion in the SEC. But LSU returns with almost equal talent as last year, minus, of course, the quarterback position (Ryan Perrilloux will not be the next repeat SEC title-game MVP).

Matt Flynn was overshadowed by a spectacular defense and a kooky Les Miles last year, but he helped LSU rally to beat Florida, Auburn and Alabama. Against SEC defenses, you can’t just surround an overwhelmed quarterback with tons of talent and win a title. Also, this might be the year Miles adopts his new philosophy: Go for it on every fourth down. I see losses at Auburn and South Carolina but a big win against Georgia.

3. Alabama (4-4)

If you look at the Crimson Tide’s recruiting classes under Mike Shula, there are very few major contributors such as Andre Smith, John Parker Wilson and Antoine Caldwell remaining. Jimmy Johns was allegedly more of a distributor.

Nick Saban is still trying replenish the roster with talent. Alabama is seriously lacking in depth, and the last half of the season includes a trip to Tennessee, a trip to LSU and the Iron Bowl. The last half of the season last year ended in embarrassment and a billboard that read, “Tide Rolled! ULM 21 - Alabama 14.” No SEC coach ever thinks, “These freshmen will win us a title this year.”

4. Ole Miss (2-6)

I think this story ends well for Houston Nutt. The resources available at Ole Miss are similar to what he left at Arkansas, and Ed Orgeron, for all his goofiness, did recruit some talent. The inital reviews of quarterback Jevan Snead are impressive. But still, this was an 0-8 team last year. And the players will be adjusting to a new dialect this year from the head coach.

5. Mississippi State (2-6)

I got a thoughtful e-mail from reader Mike Lofton after I suggested that Mississippi State was lucky last year. He wrote, “You implied that one play made the difference in several games. I contend that it takes 8 to 10 plays good or bad that will determine a ballgame, not one play. If one play determines a ballgame, then luck determines every game.

“Nobody knows the outcome of the 2008 season, but I guarantee that no team that comes out of the Southeastern Conference with a winning record and a bowl game will be called ‘lucky.’”

I see his point. I will agree that the Bulldogs put themselves in position to use timely punt returns/interception returns/Orgeron weirdness to win games. But I wouldn’t count on a bunch of so-called lightning strikes this season, and I still don’t like the Bulldogs’ personnel on offense.

6. Arkansas (1-7)

Maybe this is the year Bobby Petrino doesn’t express interest in another job. Because nobody offers one. The Razorbacks are transforming from run-oriented to pass-happy with a completely depleted roster.

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