Tennessee: GOP faces headwinds in races for Congress

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WASHINGTON — Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., took over as Republican Conference chairman this year, pledging to bring new ideas to the party that would help the GOP attract moderates and independents in the coming election.

Now, less than five months before the November election, Sen. Alexander’s job is no easier, as most political observers foresee major headwinds for Republicans that could lead to significant losses in both the House and the Senate.

“What we senators are doing on the Republican side is, in our states we’re reminding people of who we are and who we stand for and what we propose to do about big problems in our country and how we’re working across party lines to get things done,” Sen. Alexander said.

But voters’ preferences this year appear to be with the Democrats, with polls reflecting discontent with President Bush, the weak economy and the war in Iraq. Those factors played large roles in the sweeping Democratic victories of 2006, when both the House and the Senate switched to Democratic control.

This year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has predicted Democratic gains of 10 to 20 House seats and four to seven Senate seats.

Dr. Larry Sabato, who heads the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said he conservatively estimates that Democrats will gain between eight to 14 seats in the House and a minimum of four seats in the Senate.

“If anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats have had in many a moon,” Dr. Satabo said. “Only a strong presidential victory by John McCain that is strong enough to come with coattails attached can change this vision.”

Democrats, along with the two independent senators that caucus with them, hold a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate and a 235 to 199 majority in the House.

Expanding their majorities, particularly in the Senate where 60 votes are required to head off filibusters, would allow Democrats greater ability to push through their agenda, even if Sen. McCain wins the presidential election.

Safe seats lost

As a sign of the potential GOP difficulties, the party lost three special elections for House seats in normally reliably Republican districts: one in Illinois, one in Louisiana and one in Mississippi.

The losses prompted former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to offer a scathing critique of the Republican Party in an open letter last month, saying if the party fails to “chart a bold course of real reform,” it “could face a catastrophic election this fall.”

The criticism from the Georgia Republican, who flirted with a presidential run this year, was welcomed by some House GOP members but rankled others.

“I think Speaker Gingrich is obviously very bright and I agree with a lot of what he says, but I also look at him now as a for-profit entity,” Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., said. “He’s not so much looking out for Republicans’ interests as he is looking after his own best interests.”

Rep. Wamp acknowledged that his party is facing an uphill challenge this fall and must return to its core principles of reducing government waste and lowering taxes that helped sweep the Republicans into power in 1994.

“We have not been consistent on limited government, and we have not exerted the type of congressional oversight that we should have,” Rep. Wamp said. “We’ve lost a bit of our brand identity, and we’ve lost a lot of our credibility.”

Energy prices

Sens. Alexander and Bob Corker, R-Tenn., said one strategy the party will use is to hammer Democrats on high energy prices, as gas hovers $4 a gallon.

Sen. Alexander recently proposed a “Manhattan Project” energy plan that includes developing hybrid plug-in vehicles, pursuing nuclear fusion and researching advanced biofuels, among other ideas.

In addition, Republicans have proposed bills that would open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and other coastal regions for oil drilling, along with expanding nuclear power.

“I believe people will see that we truly have a focus on increasing the supply (of energy) across all avenues,” Sen. Corker said. “When people move beyond the rhetorical comments and see we’re doing the necessary things, I think that can be a real winning component for people running for office.”

Democrats, however, have been equally eager to criticize Republicans for high gas prices and have highlighted their own measures to increase conservation, invest in alternative energy research and tax “unreasonable” profits earned by oil companies.

The three Democrats running to take on Sen. Alexander, a race most election observers rate as safe for the GOP, have all issued statements on energy policy that take Republicans to task for their refusal to adopt global warming legislation and take on oil company profits.

“The Republicans are out of touch with working-class Tennesseans,” Democratic candidate Mike Padgett said.