Ed Cromer

NASHVILLE — The battle for control of the Tennessee General Assembly is under way as Democrats seek to retake the narrowly divided Senate while House Republicans hope 2008 will be the year they finally topple majority Democrats.

Although all 99 House seats and 16 Senate seats are on the Nov. 4 ballot, only a relatively few number of seats — perhaps 20 at most — could be in contention, according to legislative leaders and political aides.

The Senate is now evenly divided 16 to 16 between Republicans and Democrats with one independent who often sides with Democrats. But with the aid of a Democratic senator, Senate Republicans made history last year by electing Sen. Ron Ramsey, R-Blountville, the first Republican speaker since post-Civil War Reconstruction.

Democrats still reign 53-46 in the 99-member House, but several retirements such as that of House Democratic Caucus Chairman Randy Rinks, D-Savannah, have GOP leaders keeping their fingers crossed that they can pick up four seats and win control.

Ed Cromer, editor of the nonpartisan political newsletter Tennessee Journal, said he thinks Senate Democrats face an “uphill battle” regaining control in the chamber.

“On the House side, I think the Democrats have the advantage,” Mr. Cromer observed. “The Republicans would have to pick up a net of four seats.”

Even before the fall contests between Democrats and Republicans, however, there are a number of contested party primaries where Democrats and Republicans are going after their own.

For example, in the House District 31 race, which includes Hamilton County, Rep. Jim Cobb, R-Spring City, faces a challenge from former Rep. Jim Vincent, R-Soddy-Daisy, who is attempting a political comeback.

“That does seem to be a trend this year, more so than I can remember in the past,” Mr. Cromer said.

Senate battles

In the general election, Senate Democrats have to defend two open seats from Republicans. One is the Senate District 12 seat being vacated by Sen. Tommy Kilby, D-Wartburg, who is not seeking re-election. The district includes Rhea County.

The contest pits Morgan County Mayor Becky Ruppe, a Rockwood Democrat, against former Roane County Mayor Ken Yager, a Harriman Republican, and independent Christopher Fenner, of Kingston.

Mr. Cromer said the race could be a toss up.

The other open seat is in West Tennessee — the Senate District 26 seat held by Sen. John Wilder, D-Mason, the former speaker, who is retiring after 44 years in the Senate. Republicans say the district leans their way, but Democrats say they believe they can win there as well as the Kilby seat.

“We’re very optimistic that we can take the Senate,” said Senate Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Haynes, D-Nashville. “We think it’s a good year for Democrats in view of the economy and high gas prices and other issues surrounding high energy costs, inflation and unemployment.”

Sen. Haynes also cites Senate District 14, a district that includes Sequatchie, Grundy, Bledsoe and Warren counties. The seat is held by Sen. Steve Roller, D-McMinnville, who was appointed in January following the resignation of longtime incumbent Jerry Cooper.

Sen. Roller, an attorney, faces Democratic primary challenges from Belvidere insurance agency owner Eric Stewart and Tullahoma jewelry store owner Jim Woodard.

Republicans Lynn Sebourn, of Tullahoma, an aerospace engineer; Estill Springs businessman Mike Niederhauser; and Manchester attorney James Threet are vying for their party’s nomination.

“I think we can keep that seat,” Sen. Haynes said, noting he is “very optimistic” about defeating Republican incumbents in two districts near Nashville.

Tennessee Republican Party spokesman Bill Hobbs said Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will pose problems for Democrats.

When national Democrats nominate U.S. Sen. Obama of Illinois later this summer, Mr. Hobbs said, he will become the “most liberal” major political party nominee in American history.

“You can see the disconnect bewteen Obama and Tennessee Democrats,” Mr. Hobbs said.

Mr. Hobbs said that “obviously, (independent) Mike Williams’ seat is in a Republican-leaning district, so we got a great shot to pick that one up. And the other two seats (Kilby, Wilder seats), I think we stand a good chance on both of those.”

Mr. Hobbs and other Republicans are also confident they will hold on to the two Middle Tennessee seats targeted by Democrats.

Republicans also are watching with fascination how some Democrats are going after Sen. Rosalind Kurita, D-Clarksville, who joined with GOP members in ousting Sen. Wilder last year as Senate speaker. Sen. Kurita faces a Democratic primary candidate but no Republican general election foe.

Former Lt. Gov. John Wilder recently campaigned for Sen. Kurita’s primary opponent.

A House fight

As for the House, Speaker Jimmy Naifeh, D-Covington, said, “Hopefully we’ll be able to add to our numbers this election cycle.”

Democrats are targeting an open Cumberland Plateau-area seat as well as an open West Tennessee seat held, respectively, by Rep. William Baird, R-Jacksboro, and Rep. Chris Crider, R-Milan, both of whom are not seeking re-election.

Other seats are targeted as well.

House Minority Leader Jason Mumpower, R-Bristol, however, said, “It’s going to be a very good year for Republicans.

“I have seen polling that, No. 1, shows John McCain has as wide a lead over Barack Obama in Tennessee as he does anywhere in the nation,” Rep. Mumpower said. “I think we will see some of that Republican help filtering down to the state level.”

He said there will be a coattail effect for legislative candidates if Sen. McCain is 10 points or above Sen. Obama on Election Day.

The GOP is keen to have control of both chambers in time for legislative redistricting after the 2010 census.

Republicans are targeting seats held by departing House Majority Caucus Leader Rinks and Rep. John Hood, D-Murfreesboro. Rep. Mumpower said they also have their eyes on two Democratic-held seats in traditionally Republican Upper East Tennessee.

Comments