Retail experts are expecting slower than normal holiday sales, even as some stores are ramping up for Christmas sales in early October with seasonal items.
“We expect consumers to be frugal this season and less willing to splurge on discretionary items,” Rosalind Wells, chief economist for the National Retail Federation, said in a statement.
The NRF projects holiday sales to rise 2.2 percent this year to $470.4 billion. That would represent the lowest gain since 1.3 percent in 2002, and below the 10-year average of 4.4 percent.
During a conference call with analysts in August, CBL & Associates Properties Inc. President Stephen Lebovitz said that the mall operator expects its tenants to have flat sales this holiday period. Retailers have cut back on their inventory, he said.
“It’s just a weak retail environment,” Mr. Lebovitz said in August. “We’ve seen it before. There’s no way holiday sales won’t decrease.”
Another CBL executive said recently that some retailers will cut back on inventories. And, stores must juggle holiday and spring merchandise levels, she said.
“The concern is they want to make sure they have merchandise available but come the end of December, to make sure they remove that inventory for spring,” said Barbara Faucette, vice president of mall marketing.
Holiday sales are important to CBL because the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 accounts for between 35 percent to 45 percent of the company’s sales, she said. The day after Christmas is one of the company’s biggest days of the year.
One store, The Grapevine, does not order extra merchandise for the holidays, said Daniel Shartle, manager of the store on South Broad Street. The stores try to stay stocked up year-round. The family-owned chain has cut back on winter clothing the last couple of years, but that’s because of the area’s warm winter weather, he said.
The Grapevine has a store on Signal Mountain and two in Hamilton Place mall.
To fight a blue holiday season, CBL has been planning for a fourth-quarter marketing campaign since the first quarter that will work in concert with retailers’ campaigns, she said. CBL will promote new stores, including stores open only for the holidays, and issue press releases about stores’ hot new items. CBL also in early November is distributing nearly 900,000 coupon books to its shopping centers around the nation featuring specials at each center’s tenants.
Every CBL mall’s Web site also has an event or special offer page that will change every week during the holidays, Ms. Faucette said. For the first time CBL is doing a fourth-quarter advertising campaign, she said. The inaugural campaign is with Coca-Cola, and incorporates CBL’s “Treat Yourself” campaign.
Ms. Faucette said she expects a lot of stores will offer discounts this season to draw shoppers.
One bargain shopper said that’s what she likes to hear.
“I’m always looking for sales,” said Tristin Chiafullo, a local property manager. “I never pay retail.”
Ms. Chiafullo said she expects to spend less this holiday because of the economy. And she expects large sales because retailers are suffering, she said.
