Bruce Oppenheimer

MANCHESTER, Tenn. -- With the sun dropping behind the horizon, U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis already had been politicking all day when he walked out of a federal funding seminar at the Manchester Convention Center and straight into a "tea party" protest.

Carrying signs with slogans such as "Vote for freedom not tyranny," a group of conservative constituents seemed bent on convincing the Blue Dog Democrat and 4th District congressman to just say "no to ObamaCare."

Rep. Davis, of Pall Mall, listened and talked for more than an hour with the group, his spokesman Tom Hayden said.

"These are tough times for America, and folks at home are concerned about the direction of our country," Rep. Davis said in a prepared statement. "In the end, we are all Americans and are working towards a common goal of a more perfect union."

Political pundits have said the conservative and self-described "Blue Dog" Democrats of the South are in a precarious position -- caught between their very conservative constituents and their party's recognition that spiraling health care costs must be reckoned with.

But Bruce Oppenheimer, professor of public policy and education at Vanderbilt University, said he thinks it's all just political pomp and drama.

"The Blue Dogs have probably already had the most opportunity they're going to have to influence reform," Dr. Oppenheimer said. "When the proposal reaches the floor for a vote after the recess, (reform advocates) will not need all the votes of the Blue Dogs."

Some Blue Dogs signed a letter July 9 expressing "strong reservations" about the direction of the administration's draft reform proposal.

Rep. Davis, one of the signers, said last week that reform must happen; the question is how.

"We're going to have to have health care reform," he said. "I haven't seen the right proposal yet."

In an interview before he met with the protesters, Rep. Davis said he is not hung up on whether government should be involved.

Government is involved, he said, and the government programs appear to be the most cost-effective.

He said the nation spends $800 billion a year on health care for 125 million at-risk Americans on Medicare, Medicaid, disabled veterans and children.

Another $1.6 trillion is spent on the rest -- 135 million lower-risk people who can get commercial insurance.

"We've got to look at the 1.6 trillion or we won't fix it," he said.

Dr. Oppenheimer said the tea party outcry indicates a "poorly informed" public that is rallying to the cry of keeping government out of health care.

"It's a nonargument," Dr. Oppenheimer said. "Do you want to stop Medicare?"

The question, he said, is not whether government gets more involved, but how.

"Do you just reform the existing system and let it go on, or are you going to produce a serious effort at reigning in health care costs?" Dr. Oppenheimer said.

As for where and how the Blue Dogs such as Rep. Davis eventually vote, Dr. Oppenheimer said the Democratic leadership has provided some wiggle room.

"(House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi isn't stupid, and she doesn't want to put these people in the position where they're going to vote for legislation that's going to cost them re-election -- and subsequently threaten her ability to be Speaker of the House," he said.

FAST FACT

The government spends $800 billion a year on 125 million Americans who are the most at risk -- the elderly on Medicare, the poor on Medicaid, disabled veterans and children.

Another $1.6 trillion is spent on the rest: 135 million people who are the least at risk, who can qualify for and afford commercial insurance.

Source: U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis