Groundhog versus weatherman

Today’s not the best day to be a meteorologist.

It’s Groundhog Day, so those who make a living studying the weather scientifically will be upstaged by furry forecasters across the country — especially Punxsutawney Phil in Punxsutawney, Pa. — even if their shadow-based predictions aren’t close to correct.

“It generally goes along with the way people see the weather and us meteorologists,” lamented Tom Ross at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. “Everybody likes to make fun of the weatherman.”

Folklore has it that if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather. If the famous groundhog does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring.

Derek Eisentrout, a hydrometeorological technician at the National Weather Service in Morristown, Tenn., said he isn’t going to pay much attention to the groundhog myth. Radar patterns show winter isn’t going away in the Chattanooga area this week, regardless of the appearance of a shadow.

“We are looking at a system coming through, a cold front,” Mr. Eisentrout said.

The system will bring rain today with highs in the upper 40s. There’s a slight chance of snow showers tonight and early Tuesday with lows in the upper 20s. Highs Tuesday will be near 40 with a strong breeze, according to the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, Ed Jekielek — who dubs himself the “storm chaser” in Punxsutawney Phil’s 15-member “inner circle” in Pennsylvania — is awaiting the final word from the groundhog. No one, not even “imposter” groundhogs like Atlanta’s Gen. Beauregard Lee, knows the truth as well as Phil, he said.

“He’s been doing it 123 years and he’s never been wrong,” Mr. Jekielek said, citing a well-established legend that locals swear is true. “We do very, very scientific studies of these things.”

Unfortunately, most groundhogs won’t be awake to offer clues about weather patterns, according to Tish Gailmard, wildlife curator at the Chattanooga Nature Center. Groundhogs hibernate during the winter and typically haven’t woken up by Feb. 2, she said.

Last fall, the Nature Center welcomed its first groundhog, a female thought to be under a year old. She is in semihibernation as she recuperates from a bobcat attack and seizures, Ms. Gailmard said.

The groundhog will serve as an educational tool and “an ambassador for her species,” she said.

There’s no telling whether she’ll stir today, Ms. Gailmard said.

“We can’t force her to wake up,” she said. “She may choose to be asleep all day on Groundhog Day.”

Mr. Ross won’t be paying much attention either, having dismissed the event in Pennsylvania as a tourism campaign.

“It’s a fun, kitschy thing to bring people in to make a buck,” he said. “Who’s going to go up there at that time of year except for Groundhog Day?”