Even in a populace acutely aware of the H1N1 flu, the numbers released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention late last week had to come as a shock. About 4,000 individuals, including about 540 children, are believed to have died from the so-called swine flu, according to the report released by the CDC. The figures are considerably higher than previous death estimates, but they reflect, thankfully, a new analysis of data rather than a worsening of the disease.
The CDC also believes that nearly 100,000 people, including 36,000 children, have been hospitalized in the first six month's of the United States' H1N1 epidemic and that about 22 million Americans have been sickened by the swine flu since the epidemic began last spring. Other numbers reported by Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, underscore the heavy toll exacted by the virus.
About 8 million children under 18 are believed to have been sickened by the virus. About 12 million adults, up to the age of 64 have been sickened as well. There have bee about 53,000 hospitalizations and 2,900 deaths in the latter group, according to the CDC. Individuals over 65 accounted for 2 million illnesses, 9,000 hospitalizations and 440 deaths, according to Dr. Schuchat.
If those numbers seem extraordinarily high, they are. The current prevalence of flu cases -- most believed to be H1N1 rather than seasonal flu -- is higher now than at any time since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, Dr. Schuchat said, is "nowhere near the severity of the 1918 pandemic." That, of course, is welcome news, but public worry about the illness continues to grow.
That concern is exacerbated by continued shortages of both the H1N1 vaccine and the seasonal flu vaccine in many places around the country. Demand, as evidenced by long lines of individuals of all ages lined up at sites where vaccinations are available, far exceeds supply at the moment. Dr. Schuchat concedes that is a problem. The CDC reported late last week that about 41.6 million does of the H1N1 vaccine are available, an increase of more than 3 million from the previous week. Still, she admitted, that is "not as much as we'd hoped to have" by the day of the latest report. The shortage is likely to linger for a while.
Production of the vaccine is taking longer than initially expected. Complications in manufacturing the vaccine and extensive but necessary testing -- each batch of vaccine undergoes about 50 tests to check for everything from safety to strength -- has slowed delivery of the product to the marketplace. Consequently, availability of the vaccination is far behind schedule.
There are indications that will change shortly. Employees at the lone company producing H1N1 vaccination shots in the United States are working 24 hours a day seven days a week to meet demand. That's cold comfort to the millions of people -- many in high risk groups -- advised to get a shot by public health officials and private health care providers but can't find one.
Officials now predict that supply of the vaccine is likely to start matching demand early in December and to meet or exceed it by the end of that month. The question, of course, is whether that will be in time to help abate the spread and the severity of the flu. At least one expert thinks not. "Unfortunately, the consequences of not having enough vaccine soon enough is we're going to have people who are going to unnecessarily get sick and some will die," says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Health officials and a worried pubic can only hope that his view is overly pessimistic.
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