Bruce Oppenheimer

While state Sen. Roy Herron touts his recent string of wins in straw polls in his campaign for governor, some of his Democratic opponents question their value.

Sen. Herron says it's just sour grapes.

Those criticisms "would carry more weight if they had come before the straw polls instead of after," he said. "Every campaign has tried very hard to do very well in these straw polls."

Democrats and Republicans in the governor's race differ on just what should be gleaned from straw polls -- nonbinding votes, often taken at political party events. Some say a lot, some say nothing.

Sen. Herron was one of four Democratic candidates who spoke Nov. 16 at the Hamilton County Democratic Party's Estes Kefauver Dinner, where he won the straw poll by nearly twice the votes of any other candidate.

That win added to two other recent straw poll victories indicates that he has "a statewide campaign, not a regional campaign," he insisted.

Before the Kefauver dinner, Nashville businessman Ward Cammack's campaign sent an e-mail attacking the accuracy of a previous poll in Sullivan County, which Sen. Herron also won. Mr. Cammack also spoke at the dinner.

"The numbers just aren't adding up," staffer Marissa DeCuir wrote. "Most importantly, some people were denied voting. They were told 'it didn't matter anyway' and that voting had closed."

The campaign of Mike McWherter, son of former Tennessee Gov. Ned McWherter, sent out an e-mail dismissing straw poll results and "other anecdotal evidence" as "more talking points for the campaigns than a true barometer of the race." Mr. McWherter did not attend the Kefauver event in Chattanooga.

But in the same week, the McWherter campaign released the results of a statewide poll done by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group showing him as the frontrunner.

Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri of Lake Research Partners, the polling firm for former state Rep. Kim McMillan, D-Clarksville, said in a written statement that straw polls are condemned by the American Association for Public Opinion Research because they are misleading.

"These straw polls are not a reflection of how the general public feels, how likely voters feel or even how 'insiders' feel, since they only measure the attitudes of those at any given event at a given time," they wrote.

But Bruce Oppenheimer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University, said straw polls do give some clue about the status of the contest.

"They obviously have flaws, but if you have somebody winning a series of them, and they're in diverse places, they're at least an indication that that individual has the ability to mobilize some activists," he said.

Dr. Oppenheimer said the question is whether the candidate can parlay poll wins into fundraising and primary votes.

U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., one of four GOP candidates for governor, said straw polls drum up enthusiasm, but aren't very good for predicting contest outcomes.

"In the big scheme of things they don't tell you very much -- other than how many tables or tickets each candidate buys for an event or whether the candidate's schedule permits them to attend and speak at the event," he said.

Brad Todd, spokesman for the campaign of Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, R-Blountville, said the polls are "a good barometer of how a candidate is doing on the trail," but he also warned that campaigns shouldn't put too much emphasis on them.

The Ramsey campaign, which touted a win in a statewide straw poll earlier this month, is "not in a resource position to go out and buy too many tickets," for political events where straw polls might be held, Mr. Todd said.

Mark Cate, campaign manager for Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam's campaign, said the polls are "fun" and "give a sense of that moment in time," but aren't reliable like scientific polls.

Josh Thomas, spokesman for the campaign of Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons, said the polls give more of a sense of the makeup of a room than how the electorate will vote.

"Traditionally, they are poor predictors of the eventual outcome," he said.

Katy Cutwright, a spokeswoman for the campaign of state Sen. Jim Kyle, D-Memphis, said straw polls "are fun and good way to raise money, but not indicative of much."

ELECTION DATES

* April 1, 2010: Qualifying deadline for candidates running in primaries

* July 16-July 31: Early voting in state primary

* Aug. 5: State primary election

* Oct. 13-Oct. 28: Early voting for state general election

* Nov. 2: Election Day

Source: State of Tennessee

WHAT IS A STRAW POLL?

Straw polls are nonbinding votes, often taken at political party events, on candidates or issues. Often, polls on candidates are taken at events where those candidates speak.