Bank economist says recovery under way, true jobles rate 17%

Though First Tennessee Bank's chief economist has mixed feelings about President Obama's stimulus package, he says there is no doubt it's working.

"We would not be in a recovery without the stimulus bill," said Chris Low, adding, "could they have done it better, yeah."

Mr. Low, chief economist for FTN Financial, whose parent company is First Horizon National Corp., spoke Friday to about 200 people gathered at the Chattanooga Convention Center about the country's economic recovery.

"We are moving in the right direction and that is a hugely positive change from just a couple of quarters ago," he said.

The recession, as bad as it was, is now over, he said, with one of the leading indications coming from manufacturers. For the past two months, that sector has reported positive activity.

In talking to executives and business leaders in various industries, those in manufacturing were definitely the most optimistic, which for Chattanooga is a good thing, he said.

"You have some manufacturers that are just setting up shop here -- Volkswagen, for example." Mr. Low said.

Frank Schriner, city president of First Tennessee Bank, said he already felt better after hearing Mr. Low's talk. But not all of what Mr. Low said left him with a positive feeling.

"I was most surprised to hear him say the true unemployment rate was 17 percent," Mr. Schriner said.

Rather than the 9.8 percent announced in September, Mr. Low explained the country's higher jobless rate. The 17 percent includes the number of people "marginally attached," or underemployed, the number of unemployed people who have stopped looking for work and people working part-time because they can't find full-time jobs.

Mr. Low referred to the the national mood as one of unease, rather than the panic gripping the country a year ago when he spoke to a group in Chattanooga. He predicted the mood would be even better a year from now, and gave those in attendance a sense of encouragement.

"It is the the time now to be thinking about growth and thinking about the future again," he said.