Griscom: An hour can be a lifetime

Those who dabble in politics know that an hour can be a political lifetime. With the advent of the Internet, the time frame has shortened.

Last week generated a number of stories predicting the demise of the Obama agenda, the Democratic majorities and the balance of power in Washington.

Slightly more than a year ago, the pundits predicted the demise of the Republican Party, stating that the GOP was destined for a regional status bounded by the states that sit in the Southern portion of America. The coalition created during the presidency of Ronald Reagan was in tatters, and for the foreseeable future there was little to change the numbers.

Republican senators fell by the wayside in New Hampshire, Ohio and Missouri, and based on the votes cast in the presidential election between Sen. Obama and Sen. John McCain, Democrats were poised to pick up all three seats.

Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania switched from Republican to Democrat, but that did not eliminate a potential primary challenge. The prediction: The Democrats would retain the seat.

American politics, particularly at the national level, ebb and flow with a fickle populace.

Following the Watergate-induced resignation of President Richard Nixon, the Democrats swept into the White House at the next presidential election in 1976 and picked up seats in Congress. The 3rd Congressional District seat that covered Hamilton and other eastern Tennessee counties moved to the Democratic column, where it remained until 1995.

The Gingrich-led revolt in 1994 ushered a Republican majority into the U.S. House of Representatives, and the political pundits proclaimed a grim future for the Democrats following the failed national health care bill from the Clinton White House.

The country had made a right turn politically as Democrats took on the mantle of “blue dogs,” and cast bipartisan votes with like-minded Republicans.

Defined differences existed in the minds of voters between the two national political parties, but with time and money, those lines of distinction became blurred and in some cases were even obliterated.

The Bush 43 years sowed the seeds for independents — who over the past several decades had leaned toward the Republican column — to shift in the direction of the Democrats. At the time the issue was not

so much that the country had shifted right to left but that the confidence placed in the Bush White House had been misplaced. Voters were looking once more for a change.

There is another political saying — that it is better to take a position and stand by it than to say one thing and do another. The best example is the Bush 41 challenge to read his lips on “no new taxes” — followed by his doing the opposite.

The Obama election in 2008 pulled together a coalition of voters who had trended toward the GOP. The results were positive for the Democrats and negative for the Republicans, prompting the prediction of demise.

Fourteen months have passed. Two Democratic senators are stepping down. A Democratic governor has chosen not to stand for re-election in Colorado. Predictions are dire on whether Democrats can hold the 60-vote margin in the Senate.

In the best of years during the Reagan presidency, the Republicans never held a 60-vote margin. If failure is now defined as 60 votes, the political bar was raised in the dark of night.

What that says is that you take your political shots when they are available.

If there is any doubt now as to why Mr. Obama pushed for deadlines to pass the health care reform bill, the likely Senate numbers following the 2010 midterm elections tell all. No more questions need to be asked. The need to hold on to fragile votes makes it clear why Republican senators’ requests for more time to study health care reform were turned down and why all the deals were being made. The votes simply may not be there next year.

American voters probably have seen the bulk of the Obama first-term domestic agenda. The jockeying will be under way between now and the summer and fall elections.

The outcomes may mean a return to some semblance of civility in the halls of Congress between Republicans and Democrats.

Voters have a way of course-correcting the politics and the politicians.

To reach Tom Griscom, call 423-757-6472 or e-mail tgriscom@timesfreepress.com.