No Democrats officially have entered the race for Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District, and observers have said the state's gubernatorial race is a Republican's to lose.
Still, Tennessee's top Democrat says he is not writing off those races.
"I don't think the state has drifted too far right of center," said Chip Forrester, chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party.
The 3rd Congressional District has become "a more conservative district" since U.S. Rep. Marilyn Lloyd, D-Tenn., represented it from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s, he said. But he said it's hard to know just how red the district has become since U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., took the seat in 1995.
ELECTION DATES* April 1: Last day candidates can qualify for state/federal primary* July 16-31: Early voting in state/federal primary* Aug. 5: State/federal primary* Oct. 13-28: Early voting in state/federal general election* Nov. 2: State/federal general electionMAJOR-PARTY CANDIDATESGovernor raceRepublicans:* Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons* Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam* Joe Kirkpatrick* Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey* U.S. Rep. Zach WampDemocrats:* State Sen. Jim Kyle* Former state Rep. Kim McMillan* Mike McWherter3rd DistrictRepublicans:* Businessman Tommy Crangle* Attorney Chuck Fleischmann* Bradley County Sheriff Tim Gobble* Attorney Van Irion* Businessman Art Rhodes* Former Tennessee Republican Party Chairwoman Robin Smith* John WhitleyIndependents:* Businessman Mark DeVol* Engineer Greg GoodwinTHE 3RD DISTRICTTennessee's 3rd Congressional district includes Tennessee's Southeast corner, stretches in a small strip toward Oak Ridge and opens up to include several counties north and west of Knoxville.
Chris Devaney, chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party, attributed the GOP's perceived leg up to the strength of the candidates rather than a reddening state, and he said state Republicans will take nothing for granted. Still, he said he thinks Tennesseans are "by and large, conservative."
Bob Swansbrough, a political science professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, said the 3rd District always has been a swing district but has "Republican tendencies."
"Any political candidate kinds of reads the political tides," he said.
Dr. Swansbrough said Rep. Lloyd was elected when anti-Republican sentiment was high after Watergate, while Rep. Wamp came in during the Republican revolution of 1994.
"Right now, the bet is that the tide is going to run Republican this year," he said. "It goes back and forth. I'm not sure this is a permanent shift."
The two Democrats who were running for the 3rd District seat, former state Commerce and Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers and systems analysts Brent Benedict, dropped out of the race in early December. Two other Democrats, Chattanooga City Councilman Andraé McGary and Brad Parish of Kingston, Tenn., have said they are interested in seeking the seat.
Mr. Parish announced last week he has set up an exploratory committee, but said he still has some deciding to do.
"I anticipate making the final decision when I am comfortable in the coming weeks or months," he said.
Mr. McGary could not be reached for comment Monday.
Mr. Forrester said the process of finding a candidate for the seat is "still very fluid right now." He said a Democratic candidate for the district would have to have "moderate-to-conservative values."
A moderate Democrat such as Gov. Phil Bredesen would have a good chance to take the governor's seat as well, Mr. Forrester said.
After serving two terms, Gov. Bredesen is prevented from seeking another term by state law.