Oscar watch: Dark horses could win acting races

By Tom Long

The Detroit News

A few months back, no one really expected the frontrunners for this year's best actor and actress Oscars to even be nominated.

George Clooney seemed to be ahead in the actor race for "Up in the Air," with Colin Firth right behind for "A Single Man." And Meryl Streep was the foregone frontrunner for Best Actress for her role as Julia Child in "Julie and Julia," simply because she's Meryl Streep.

Dark horses always seem to move to the front in at least one major Oscar race a year. This year, once-dark horses are dominating both top acting races.

Best actor

Clooney has faded (as has "Up in the Air" overall). "A Single Man" never really caught on, and Firth's performance is more admired than beloved.

Morgan Freeman was nominated for "Invictus," but that's probably because he was playing Nelson Mandela, and who wants to freeze Nelson Mandela out of an Oscar nomination?

And for virtual unknown Jeremy Renner, the nomination is the award. Although if "The Hurt Locker" starts tornado-ing through the Oscar show, there's a slight chance he could get caught up in the storm.

But that's a very slight chance.

Jeff Bridges came out of nowhere with one of those big, natural performances of his in the last-minute release "Crazy Heart" and all of a sudden went from off-the-radar to likely Prom King.

It's Bridges fifth nomination in a near-40-year career; and at age 60, there's no telling if he'll get a lead role this juicy again. It's the right time for the Academy to honor his career.

Should win: Jeff Bridges.

Will win: Jeff Bridges.

Best actress

This is one weird race.

For one thing, you've got two young newcomers in the top female race -- Carey Mulligan for "An Education" and first-time actress Gabourey Sidibe for "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire."

And then you've got the veterans. Helen Mirren, who won for "The Queen" a few years back, is nominated for the little-seen "The Last Station." And Streep has her record-breaking 16th Oscar nomination for "Julie & Julia."

Sixteen nominations in 30 years. And yet Streep has won only twice, way back in 1980 for "Kramer vs. Kramer" (Supporting Actress) and in 1983 for "Sophie's Choice" (Lead Actress). This means that despite all the nominations, she only has as many statues as Hilary Swank.

That's nuts.

But it will probably remain the status quo thanks to Sandra Bullock's emergence as a powerhouse in 2009. She pulled in well over $400 million in the box office between the romantic comedy "The Proposal" and the football weepy "The Blind Side."

Now suddenly everybody loves Sandy, and she's got her first Oscar nomination for "The Blind Side."

Mirren just won one; the two newcomers are too young; Streep gets nominated every year; so, somehow, Bullock has become the frontrunner.

People will likely be shaking their heads about this one for years to come. It's not that Bullock isn't good in a mediocre movie; it's that the others are better in good movies.

Should win: Sidibe, or anyone other than Bullock.

Will win: Sandra Bullock.

CAST YOUR VOTES

Think you can predict this year's Oscar winners? Cast your votes in the Red Carpet Movie Contest at www.timesfreepress.com/oscars. The contest closes at 8 p.m. Sunday. Winner of the online contest receives an 18-DVD Best Picture Oscar collection.