Storm warnings for East Coast

Though the Atlantic hurricane season extends from June through November, September historically is the most active month of the period and early to mid-September is the busiest period within that time frame. Current events certainly support that fact.

After three months of relative calm on the tropical storm front, September has arrived and Hurricane Earl, as this is written, is moving with speed towards the U.S. East Coast. Fiona, a less powerful storm so far but one that is expected to strengthen, is following much the same path as Earl. The pair, like Danielle last weekend, are reminders that the East Coast of the United States is a frequent target of hurricanes and other dangerous tropical weather systems.

Florida and the other Gulf Coast states are the most frequent sites for hurricane landfalls, to be sure, but North Carolina is not far behind. Indeed, that’s the state most likely to be affected first by Earl, according to forecasters. The storm is predicted to brush the state by late Thursday or early Friday and then move north, parallel to land up the Eastern seaboard toward New England and the easternmost parts of Canada. A small change in direction, though, could mean major trouble for residents along the heavily populated U.S. coast.

While Earl’s currently projected path puts the Category 4 storm far enough east to prevent a major strike, that can change. A shift of 100 miles or so to the west would bring the powerful storm ashore or very close to shore, with possibly devastating results. Even if the bulk of the storm remains at sea, significant winds and rain could affect coastal areas from the Carolinas to Maine. Whatever the case turns out to be, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, once rightly accused of being lackadaisical in such matters — remember Katrina? — is assuming an active role in preparing to deal with Earl and its aftermath.

It has already sent crews to North Carolina and has other groups on stand-by should they be needed in states farther to the north. In addition, an agency administrator said Tuesday that residents along the East Coast should be prepared to move out of harm’s way if evacuations become necessary. The timely advice is well taken. It is better to be ready to leave and not have to do so, than to be unprepared and unable to evacuate when a dangerous storm is imminent.

Hurricane Earl, with winds of 135 mph on Tuesday, delivered a glancing blow to several islands as it moved through Caribbean waters. In Puerto Rico tens of thousands of people were without power or water in the storm’s wake. Residents of other islands and the U.S. mainland along Earl’s projected path should heed the warnings. Nothing about Earl is certain, of course, but his passage and power are proof that hurricane season and all the uncertainty it contains is upon us.