Though Republicans and Democrats catch almost all of the headlines, John Monds, the libertarian candidate in the Georgia governor, sees factors lining up so his party can make a historic run this fall.
The tea party movement's small government ideas are lining up with libertarians' philosophies at the same time political experts are observing an anti-incumbent sentiment spreading around the nation, Monds said.
Both could be good news for Monds, who in a 2008 bid for Georgia public service commissioner, became the state's first libertarian candidate to net 1 million votes.
"I think we're really going to surprise a lot of people with how well we do in this election," said Monds, a 45-year-old stay-at-home dad from Cairo, Ga.
Libertarians have a candidate for every partisan statewide race in Georgia.* U.S. Senate: Chuck Donovan* Governor: John Monds* Lieutenant Governor: Dan Barber* Secretary of State: David Chastain* Attorney General: Don Smart* Commissioner of Agriculture: Kevin Cherry* Commissioner of Insurance: Shane Bruce* State school superintendent: Kira Griffiths Willis* Commissioner of Labor: Will Costa* Public Service Commissioner: James SendelbachSource: Catoosa County Sample Ballot
His "highest expectation" is to win the election, but if that doesn't happen, Monds said he hopes for 34 percent so he can get in a runoff. At the very least, he hopes for 20 percent of the votes, which would give the libertarians official party status in the Georgia.
The 20 percent threshold is "a doable number," Monds said.
Ken Ellinger, a professor of political science at Dalton State College, said the tea party and anti-incumbent feelings may help, but he expects Monds to fall well short of his goals.
"All of those (percentages) are pipe dreams that bear no semblance to reality - it's not going to happen," Ellinger said. "Instead of their historical 1 or 2 or 3 percent maybe they get four or five."
Ellinger called the tea party's influence a "wild card." Even libertarian-leaning voters would probably stick to the two main parties, he said.
"People are going to say, 'I'd rather vote for my second choice than for someone who doesn't have a chance,'" he said.
Rasmussen polls released Thursday shows 5 percent of likely voters support Monds, compared to 45 percent for Republican Nathan Deal and 39 percent for Democrat Roy Barnes. Six percent prefer another candidate and 5 percent are undecided.
But most notably perhaps for Monds, 40 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of former U.S. Rep. Deal and 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion of former Gov. Barnes.
Monds said he hopes dissatisfied voters will look his way.
"They've been involved in government for decades between the two of them," Monds said of his rivals. "Hopefully, people realize that, even though they're separate parties, they're both part of the same problem and that's the fact the big government doesn't work."
Libertarians believe in small government, low taxes and expanded personal freedoms. Monds has said he opposes bans on casino gambling and Sunday alcohol sales because he sees bans as government interference.
That philosophy fits in line with some of the tea party movement's principals of small government and Monds hopes to draw support from the groups.
"I feel very at home with the tea party crowd," said Monds, who has appeared at several tea party events.
Tom Hunter, a political science professor at the University of West Georgia, said the libertarians have never gained much traction since they were organized in 1972. He doesn't see that changing any time soon.
"Unless something very, very odd happens, I don't think you'll ever see the libertarians get more than their typical 3 or 4 percent," Hunter said.
Contact Andy Johns at ajohns@timesfreepress.com or call 423-757-6324.
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