We were 4-5 against the number last week and are a positively pedestrian 21-20 this year. Gross.
Each of the three previous years we hit at better than 60 percent, so this has been a far-less-than-entertaining grind that has included sub-.500 weeks in three of the last four weekends. Grosser.
Now we have to rally, and a couple of our cupcakes have bye weeks and two of the three teams that have been points-covering machines -- Baylor and TCU -- are facing each other. Grossest.
Still, let's get this done. And if you feel the need to pick opposite of these Fab 4-plus-1 picks, well, there are no hard feelings. As always, these picks are for entertainment only.
Last week: 4-5 against the spread
Season: 21-20 against the spread
LSU-Florida under the 47: This game may be completed in like an hour and 35 minutes. LSU's quarterback situation is garbage. Anthony Jennings and true freshman Brandon Harris are completing roughly 50 percent of their throws. The Florida quarterback situation is worse. Treon Harris, who rallied the Gators to an improbable 10-9 win over Tennessee, is facing potential jail time and is suspended. Will Grier is battling back spasms. Skyler Mornhinweg got into a fight with a defensive lineman over shoes and went to the hospital. (Side question: Which is more puzzling from 30,000 feet, a QB named Skyler being dumb enough to fight over a pair of cleats or a five-star defensive lineman being popped by a backup QB named Skyler?) That leaves Jeff Driskel as Florida's only answer, and if Jeff Driskel is the only answer, then the question is not how many but how few.
Georgia Southern minus-21 over Idaho: We believe Georgia Southern is good -- and coach Willie Fritz is legit and may be a hot name for a slew of job openings sooner rather than later. But we are happy to give the weight here because, well, Georgia Southern is decidedly better. In fact, this one screams 56-14 because in addition to the talent divide, consider this: The Vandals -- great nickname, by the way -- call Moscow home. Georgia Southern is nestled in the quaint burg known as Stateboro. It's 2,097 miles between the locales as the crow flies, and we're pretty sure there are zero direct flights between the two. There's a real chance that today the Vandals will either ride or fly the 330 miles by plane or 561 miles by car to Idaho Falls and take a six-hour flight to Atlanta to then take the absolute awful ride from there to Macon and down I-16. That could be 18 hours of travel -- before trying to stop a Georgia Southern bunch that is clicking.
Auburn minus-3 at Mississippi State: Buy the half, of course. We believe Mississippi State is physical and Dak Prescott has been awesome in his awesomeness. We believe Dan Mullen will be mentioned for every big opening in the next six weeks, be it Michigan, Florida or even an NFL gig. That said, we believe Auburn is the best team in the SEC West with a defense that quietly has become one of the best in the country.
Georgia Tech minus-3 vs. Duke: Yes, buy the half here, too. Georgia Tech has been good to us, covering consistently during its 5-0 start. Duke is 4-1 and this game is for first in the ACC Coastal. Anyone else think "Naming the teams in the ACC Coastal" is akin to an SAT question for smart kids. Speaking of smart kids ...
Fresno State minus-10 at UNLV: We'd likely buy the half here too, for safe measure. After an 0-3 start, the other FSU has won three straight. While we do not have SMU or USM or any other variation of the letters M-S-U to pick on this week, well, UNLV will have to do. UNLV is 1-5 overall with a one-point win over Northern Colorado and 1-5 against the spread. Got to love a team in Vegas that knows its market.
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SEC items of interest
I-75 showdown
We'll admit it: We are excited to see UTC defensive linemen Derrick Lott and Davis Tull (as well as Keionta Davis, for that matter) against a Tennessee offensive line that has struggled. This may be the only time this season Tull doesn't see a double team on every snap, and we think the Knoxville native and Lott, the Georgia transfer, both will be supremely motivated.
'GameDay' still in Mississippi
After last week's overwhelming party in Oxford, Miss., the ESPN "GameDay" gang has moved to Starkville this weekend. What's next, Hattiesburg? Still, Auburn's visit to Mississippi State will decide a leader in the chase for the SEC West. The teams are similar, but the Bulldogs may be the most physical bunch in the entire conference.
SEC East title match?
The winner of Saturday's Georgia-at-Missouri game will have the inside track for the East title. Sure, there will be work to do to hold on to the lead, but the Bulldogs and the Tigers appear to be the front-runners in a division that may not be as good as the West but is every bit as unpredictable. And the league's foremost difference-maker, Todd Gurley, has been suspended and will not be available for Georgia. Watch Missouri defensive ends Shane Ray and Marcus Golden, because with Gurley out and injuries limiting his talented backups, Georgia will need quarterback Hutson Mason to come through. The Golden-Ray tandem feasts on making plays behind the line.
Ole Miss encore
One of the biggest pratfalls of being a college football coach and having 18-to-23-year-old guys determine whether you are a genius or a failure is managing the peaks and valleys. Ole Miss is riding the peak of the biggest win in program history. The Rebels have been the lead story on "SportsCenter," and, heck, Katy Perry was involved. (Ask your kids: They know who she is.) How they handle the hangover of a week's worth of back-slapping and celebrating after beating Alabama will determine the tenor of the trip to Texas A&M.
Alabama rebound
The same can be said for an Alabama team dealing with the ripple effects of a loss that put the Crimson Tide in an awkward spot. In fact, the stars have aligned in arguably the worst possible way for the Tide. Consider the following: physical and heartbreaking loss at Ole Miss that included a few key injuries; midweek distraction involving former quarterback AJ McCarron's quotes about the Tide lacking leadership; a trip to Arkansas, which apparently runs this fancy, rarely seen formation that includes two backs in the backfield and the quarterback under center. Crazy. It's games like these that have proven Alabama's championship mettle in recent years. Let's see how it handles this one.