Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith, right, stands on the touchline during his game against Detroit Lions at Wembley Stadium, London, on Oct. 26, 2014.You can't say for certain that Mike Smith's days as the Atlanta Falcons' head coach are almost over.
At least not as long as the Bad News Birds call the NFC South their home. Because when it comes to the NFC's weakest division, SOUTH might as well be an acronym for Same Ol' Underachieving Teams, Huh?
So even though Atlanta stands a horrid 2-6 today following Sunday's inexplicable, unforgivable 22-21 loss to much-depleted Detroit across the pond in London, the Birds are still no worse than 1.5 games out of first in the NFC South, thanks to no one in the division having so much as a .500 record, much less a winning one.
But that doesn't mean this loss to the Lions isn't going to leave the kind of mark on Smith that may never quite disappear. You just can't blow a 21-point lead for only the second time in franchise history against a team missing its best player (Calvin Johnson) and retain the faith of your boss. Especially when you're coming off a 4-12 season in which many believed you could have, if not should have been made the scapegoat.
A season-ending injury to wideout Julio Jones, along with a host of injuries to lesser lights, likely saved Smith's job then. So, too, and quite fairly we might add, the Falcons' run to the NFC title game the previous season.
Yet somewhat ironically, a highly questionable decision to attempt a short pass to Jones inside the final two minutes of Sunday's game, the Falcons still holding the lead, might ultimately doom Smith now.
Without that incomplete pass, which stopped the clock, the Lions would have theoretically had at least 35 fewer seconds to travel from their own 7 following a Falcons punt, rather than the 1:45 they had to move through the Atlanta D with ridiculous ease.
Run the ball at that moment and the clock keeps ticking, Detroit out of timeouts, even a defense as defenseless as Atlanta's is likely to hang on, halting a four-game losing skid along the way.
Or as Smith noted of what he'd hoped would happen: "On the best-case scenario, giving the ball back to them with 45 seconds left."
Had that happened, the Falcons almost certainly would have won, then enjoyed an off-week this weekend followed by two winnable division road games at Tampa Bay (Nov. 9) and Carolina (Nov. 16).
"We felt coming into this game that if we took care of what we needed to today," the coach said, "that it would put us in a very different situation than what we've been over the last couple of weeks."
Instead, because of Smith's poor time management and one of the worst interceptions Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has ever thrown earlier in the final half, the Falcons are in a situation only one team previously (the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals, who also started 2-6) has previously recovered well enough from to reach the NFL playoffs.
"We've got to be the first one to do it," said Ryan, apparently referring to the current NFL, since the Bengals were an AFL team that season. "That's got to be the mindset that we have to have."
And on that point he's certainly correct.
Yet these are also the same Falcons who've also already lost to the Bears, Giants and Vikings, who all own losing records at the moment. So while it's certainly possible for Atlanta to rally, it doesn't seem overly plausible.
Nor should Smith escape much of the blame, despite both this team and last year's team being riddled with injuries. Even when the Falcons have been healthy they've always seemed a bit off defensively. Lest we forget, Smith was a defensive coordinator at Jacksonville before coming to Atlanta.
This isn't to place all the blame for this wretched defense to date -- an average of 27.6 points allowed against a schedule where five of the eight opponents have losing records -- on Smith. General manager Thomas Dimitroff has steadfastly placed offense in front of defense, seemingly determined to form an offense capable of ringing up big numbers inside Georgia Dome. And it was certainly entertaining throughout Smith and Ryan's first five seasons together.
But the Falcons suddenly look like a team that's all sizzle with no substance. What was the line Smith uttered after Sunday's loss? "Things went so easy in the first half," he said.
And that may be the Falcons' biggest problem and Smith's worst shortcoming. Yes, his teams have won a lot of games on the final drive, Ryan pulling out 24 such victories. Yes, the offense's skill players, when most are healthy, can almost always eek out a win.
But it's been a long time since anyone called the Falcons gritty or tenacious. And that's at least partly on Smith, if only because that was supposed to be his calling card when he first got the job.
It's never one man's fault, of course. Dimitroff risked everything to acquire Julio Jones in the draft a few years ago, mortgaging his future for what appeared to be a blindingly bright present. But the Falcons came up four points shy of reaching the Super Bowl in 2012, fell to 4-12 a year later and are now stuck on 2-6.
At least Atlanta has a week off to get over what Ryan termed, "As tough a loss to take as I've ever been a part of."
But whether Falcons owner Arthur Blank can or should move past it is another matter. An NFL head coach in his seventh season shouldn't make the mistakes Smith did on Sunday. That he did just might make it so, so easy for Blank to fire him at season's end.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com