SEC
Southeastern ConferenceHere are five things we are looking forward to about this weekend of SEC football:
1. Hottest seat in the league versus the most-talked-about position
Playing quarterback at Alabama is by definition a spotlight gig. But after a 3-0 start and being ranked among the top 15 passers in the country, you'd think Blake Sims would be getting All-SEC buzz rather than all these "Who is the starting quarterback?" questions. This will be Sims' toughest test of the season. On the other sideline is the hottest chair in the SEC and maybe the country for Will Muschamp, who did little to quash the flames with a triple-overtime survival against Kentucky in the Swamp last week. Muchamp needs a resume-boosting victory, and a nationally televised win at Tuscaloosa would certainly qualify, but the questions and the unrest continue to swirl around a brilliant defensive mind who may be in over his head as the head coach.
2. NFL first-rounder 2015 vs. NFL first-rounder 2017
Florida defensively is good and defensive end Dante Fowler is legit. He's ranked among the top five defensive ends in the country by draft gurus Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. Alabama true freshman left tackle Cam Robinson will get the task of keeping Fowler out of the backfield.
3. How many Georgia running backs will go for more than 100 yards?
OK, Troy is terrible. Like really bad -- blitzed at home by UAB bad -- and a trip to Athens against a mad Georgia bunch is hardly the tonic for what ails Troy. (Rushmore of Troys? Troy Aikman, Troy McClure from the Simpsons, Troy Tulowitzki and Troy Polamalu maybe.) We know Todd Gurley will get more than 100 yards Saturday -- he may need less than five carries to get there (provided offensive coordinator Mike Bobo remembers Gurley is on the field). We think Sony Michel will get there, too. Nick Chubb's time may be limited because of the thumb injury, so here's saying Keith Marshall gets to the 100-yard mark, too. So, like the licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop, we'll say three UGA backs top the 100-yard barrier.
4. Will Mississippi State's experience be enough against LSU's talent?
The Bulldogs are a complete and salty bunch. Dak Prescott is an experienced difference-maker at quarterback, and MSU is underrated across each line of scrimmage. Still, few teams have as much talent 1 through 85 as LSU, and fewer still go into LSU's Death Valley on a Saturday night and succeed. For the Bulldogs to push through an SEC West that has five of the top-10 teams in the country, they are going to have to upset someone. Could this be it? Intriguing, no?
5. Run, Arkansas, Run
Not since Forrest Gump or the FXX decision to run every Simpson -- they've been on TV since 1989, for crying out loud -- has there been a never-ending fun run like the Razorbacks put on Texas Tech last week. Arkansas went for 438 yards against the Raiders on a hot-tub-worthy 68 carries. Arkansas ranks third with an average of 362 rushing yards a game and is averaging 7.9 per carry. Wow. Saturday's foe Northern Illinois averages 325.3 rushing yards a game, which ranks third in the country. Let's set the total rushing over/under at 500 and this game may take like an hour and a half.
FAB FOUR (TIMES 2)
Normally we do a Fab 4 plus 1 picks and let the chips fall where they may.
Last week those chips fell right on our head. We went 2-4 against the number -- even with these picks being for entertainment purposes only, it was our worst week since a 1-4 mark in October of last year. It happens and we brave the early successes with the struggles of the day and live to ask for more entertainment opportunities.
This week, as the games trickle by and we continue to learn which teams are worthy and which teams are hollow, we are tempted by a full slate of entertainment chances. Instead of choosing, we doubled the Fab 4 to the Great 8 and added a Thursday night special because we can. (We went with Auburn in "The 5-at-10" at timesfreepress.com and our weekly picks on "Press Row" in the 5 p.m. hour on Thursdays on ESPN 105.1 FM.)
We got back to our roots, too, and leaned toward some familiar trends and traits. We picked on teams with unknown quarterback situations (Utah State, SMU and Vanderbilt), we valued teams who score quickly and can be offensively dominant (Texas A&M, Arkansas and Auburn) and we looked toward known hurdles like travel (La.-Louisiana), time adjustments (Hawaii) and general stinkiness (Southern Miss).
Follow along:
South Carolina minus-21 over Vandy: There is not a number big enough here. Yes, South Carolina faces a real hangover possibility after a season-altering win over Georgia. But this Commodores team is overmatched at each phase.
Arkansas minus-13.5 over Northern Illinois: The Razorbacks are markedly improved and made a statement in last week's 49-28 win at Texas Tech. Arkansas ran the football on its final 30 snaps. Read that again.
Missouri minus-13.5 over Indiana: Gary Pinkel may be the most underrated coach in the SEC. Plus, in this time when domestic assault is grabbing national attention and consternation, let's remember that last spring Pinkel dismissed his best player -- Dorial Green-Beckham -- after he assaulted a female. OK, as for the game, well, Indiana is good at running the football; Missouri has a deep and talented defensive front led by Shane Ray and has forced a turnover in 47 consecutive games.
Texas A&M minus-33 over SMU: Another number that we can't see getting too big. Texas A&M is a top-five national offense with almost 600 yards and more than 54 points per game. SMU is dealing with an in-season new head coach and a new starting quarterback. This one screams 65-10.
Boise State minus-17 over Louisiana-LaFayette: Late kickoff. Close to 2,000 miles of travel -- and something tells us it will be economy-style -- and a Boise State team that is starting to find its stride under a new coaching regime.
Appalachian State plus-3 over Southern Miss: We have a warning bell system set up in the "5-at-10" compound when a few specific things happen: If someone is running with scissors, is about to go swimming before waiting 30 minutes after eating, and any time Southern Miss or Georgia State are favored to win football games. Yes, please.
Colorado minus-7 over Hawaii: Lots of travel. Altitude. A 2 p.m. Eastern kickoff -- that's 8 a.m. Hawaii time -- and this pick is not about the teams as much as it's about the circumstances. Now that's research, folks. Buy the half and pineapple for everyone.
Arkansas State minus-2.5 over Utah State: A confusing line since Utah State reportedly is without Chuckie Keeton and Arkansas State is at home. Don't question the unknown; simply accept the opportunity.
Last week against the spread: 2-4
Overall against the spread: 9-8