5-at-10: NFL picks, golf major predictions, UCF blowback, Patriots' divide, Pricey tickets and Hoops philosophy

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) is congratulated by head coach Sean McVay after Gurley scored a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans on an 80-yard pass reception in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 24, 2017, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) is congratulated by head coach Sean McVay after Gurley scored a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans on an 80-yard pass reception in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 24, 2017, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)

From Chief

Are you going to offer any NFL playoff picks or title game picks this week or what?

How could I possibly go on without your 2-2 foresight?

Chief -

Apparently, being kinder was not on Chief's 2018 resolution list.

But yes, we will pick NFL games today and breakdown the college title game on Monday. Deal? Deal.

And also, good luck finding which two are right and which two are less so.

Falcons plus-6.5 over Los Angeles. Amazingly, in big games down the stretch, the Falcons have been carried by an athletic and aggressive defense. That's a comforting thought. It also is worth noting, and through research, stopping the run is more important in the postseason than in the regular season. Atlanta has a top-10 rushing defense in terms of yards (ninth in the league allowing 104. per game) and rushing TDs against (tied for sixth in the league with nine rushing scores allowed). If they can slow superback Todd Gurley and put this on Jared Goff - without a very dangerous play-action game - we believe the Falcons will outright. Either way, the almost TD line (would likely buy that up to the full 7)

New Orleans minus-7 over Carolina. Drew Brees quietly set the record for the highest completion percentage in a single season. Crazy stat: It's the third time Brees has set the record in his career. Too many weapons for the Saints. And yes, if crazy good Cam Newton shows up the Panthers can beat anyone. We'll lean toward the sure thing in a Saints offense that with Brees at the controls - and with Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn and the eye-popping RB tandem of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram - is simply too much. (Have to buy this down.)

Jacksonville minus-9 over Buffalo. Since 2013 NFL quarterbacks making their NFL playoff debuts are 1-10. That one win was Brock Osweiler beating fellow playoff newbie Connor Cook. That stat will certainly be 2-11 after this one since Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles are making their playoff debuts this weekend. That scary fact counter balances the reality that we are actually backing Blake Bortles in a playoff game. But know this: Buffalo has allowed an NFL worst 22 rushing TDs (next worst is 18) and is 29th against the run this year. That means a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette and less Bortles. Deal? Deal. (Side note: Worst rush defenses in the wildcard round the last three years Miami lost by 18 in 2016, Washington lost by 17 in 2015; Cincinnati lost by 16 in 2015.)

Kansas City-Tennessee under the 44.5. Cold as heck. Check. Two quarterbacks that we're not sure either coach truly trusts in playoff pressure. Check. Two teams that want to run the ball and burn the clock. We hope the Titans win this one, but the biggest variable here - like most games - will be a stark divide in how each takes care of the ball. Kansas City is second in the NFL with a plus-15 turnover margin, including a league-low 11 turnovers; Tennessee has a minus-4 turnover margin, the worst in the league of any team still practicing.

From DoctorNole

My picks for PGA winners this year: Rickie Fowler, Marc Leisman, Jon Rahm and Tiger Woods.

What about you?

DoctorNole -

As for me, no I likely will not win a PGA major this year. Since the kids got into sports, well, let's just say my golf game has gone the way of the DoDo Bird, the wooly mammoth and the politician who is more focused on doing their job rather than keeping their job.

As for my picks, well, that's very interesting. Let's go major by major:

Masters: Jordan Spieth. We are to a place that this kid is going to be our pick for the best individual tournament ever in the history of everything including the Caveman Invitational Rock Throw. Know this: In his last four trips to God's Golf Course, he's tied for second, winner, tied for for second and tied for 11th. That's a Tiger level of consistency in terms of dealing with the same course and the extreme pressure.

U.S. Open. This year the Open comes to Shinnecock Hills, which has been lengthened significantly and could play as the longest Open ever. That means we need to find a guy that kills it, and we were tempted to go D.J. here (as well as at Augusta), but we'll take Rory here and like it.

British Open. At Carnoustie, we'll go off the board with a name we never thought we would pick to win a major. Hello Sergio Garcia. OK, the over-the-top pressure on Garcia was wiped away forever last spring at Augusta. Now know this, the last time this tournament - which means the most to Sergio - was at Car-Nasty, Paddy Harrington won it in a playoff with Sergio.

PGA Championship at Bellerive Country Club. Jon Rahm. Like your pick of Rahm getting a major and the one thing we have learned over recent years is the PGA Championship will be won by a first-time major winner. The top three contenders looking to pop their major bubble in our view (other than the ones listed here) are Rahm, Fowler and Justin Rose.

And while we hope Tiger wins an event this year, man it's hard to see it being a major. That said, we'd be tickled to be wrong on that one.

From Good Knight

Hey Jack-(Butt), we all saw your pitiful response to our UCF squad that deserves to be the national champion.

Their the best team in the country, with the best young coach and you are just a butt-hurt Auburn fan.

Wake up and realize that there are great teams -- better than Auburn who beat Georgia and Bama -- in lower leagues too and this year the best team in the country is UCF.

Deal with it you SEC homer and Finnebaum wannabe.

Good Knight -

Well, there's that.

First, UCF is not the best team in the country. This is not for debate, and please for the sake of your fellow UCF fans, family members and your therapist, play attention and get this straight:

You can UCF is most accomplished team. You can say UCF is the only perfect team in the country. You can say UCF has the best resume, and even point out that you guys played and beat more bowl teams than Alabama.

What you can't say is UCF is the best team. Yes, the Knights beat Auburn, which did beat Alabama and Georgia. But the transitive property works in math, not in team sports. In fact, with a couple of extra steps and La Tech beating LSU, we can get UTC with a claim of so-and-so beat so-and-so and then they told two friends and then they told two friends and so on into the playoff.

Side note: And as much respect as we have for - and have paid to - Scott Frost, uh, he's not your coach any more. Maybe Josh Heupel is legit; that Missouri offense was excellent in the back half of '17.

Enjoy the year. Claim the title if you want, but saying you are the best team makes you look silly in the eyes of people who watch the game. Because for all of you want to think that this glorious run makes you more talented than everyone is simply foolish.

As for being a butt-hurt Auburn fan, well, maybe so. But it has less to do with a Peach Bowl loss than a real fear that our athletic department has hitched the most important program to a seven-year, $49 million pledge to a guy who averages more than four losses a year as our two biggest rivals look poised to be the best teams in the country for the foreseeable future. Loss to UCF? Puh-lease. Side note: Can anyone think of a better phrase than "butt-hurt" to use in that context? Well-played GK.

And as for being a "finnebaum-wannabe" well, while we'd love to have his paycheck, I'm not sure I could deal with the daily diatribes of Phyllis from Mulga and the rest of his misfit toys who call in every day. Yes, that has to be part of the big salary, but man the afternoons spent with Paschall, Wells and all our big-brained Press Row listeners is a way better way to spend the afternoon.

From Mike T.

Please tell me it's not too late to get in the mailbag?

Did you see the ESPN story about the splitting relationship in New England? Wow. You have to read it and tell us what you think.

It also begs this question: Who would have had more success, Brady without Belichick or Belichick without Brady?

Thanks and keep up the great work.

Mike T. -

Yes we saw it. We read about half of it, and that has made us a lot later than we expected this morning. Here's the story. It is long, but we will finish it this morning.)

As for the Brad/Belichick success storyline, well, it's almost impossible to make that an either or. Following along:

We're not sure without Belichick's defense and calmness Brady would have emerged to more than anything other than a journeyman or a solid starter who played for eight teams in a good 13-year career.

And that's a measure of success for sure. But remember he was a sixth-round pick who got his chance because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe. As a rookie with an array of pieces around him, Brady never let go of that spot, and the lessons of professionalism and the chance to learn on the job with a stellar cast can't be overvalued for Brady's early development.

So on the basic level of success, we think Belichick would have had a level of success without Brady that it's hard to see Brady reaching without the perfect setting early.

Remember, as pros for Belichick, he got Cleveland to the playoffs and went 11-5 without Brady in the year Brady wrecked his knee.

Now, we don't think these Patriots reach this type of level of dynasty without Brady and his emergence as one of the best ever. Brady's drive and want and development - things impossible to see coming out of Michigan - are among the best ever among any athlete of all time.

And maybe he could have tapped that elsewhere and he could have emerged.

Simply put, we think Belichick pushed the duo toward their success and Brady carried them to all-time heights.

Deal?

From Mike

OK, my buddies and I have been talking about the ticket price for this national title game. That's a lot of money.

The talk has turned to what title game in any sport would we have paid the most money to watch.

We have our picks but what would yours be?

Mike -

Wow, let's list a quick top five.

And these are all in retrospect of course so the history is part of it and some with some personal preference and watching history.

1. How great would it have been to be in Lake Placid for the U.S. Hockey win?

2. Game 1 of the 1988 World Series.

3. The 2010 National title game.

4. Rumble in the Jungle.

5. An outlier that is not among the favorites, Cubs-Indians Game 7, maybe. Great question

From Chas

Bag question: Recently I've noticed that often after a defensive stop the ball handler speeds down court and shoots, even when the only players around him are from the other team, meaning if he misses, the opponent will get the rebound. That used to be a definite no-no, but are coaches OK with that now?

Chas -

I think the math has changed the philosophy in basketball as much as it has in analytics in every sport, with the possible exception of baseball.

We know that baseball has embraced the on-base stuff and working counts to a place that scouting has changed.

The same can be said for hoops, in which the math of 3s > 2s has prevailed. That also leads offensive philosophy puts more on maximizing number of possessions rather than maximizing quality of each possession.

To that end, team would rather take the quicker, one-on-one look, even if it means no offensive rebounds, than slowing it down and setting up against a set defense.

That also becomes a better choice when you look at the amazing athletes playing basketball and they way those dudes can defend nowadays.

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