The repeal of Obamacare could cost Tennessee 57,000 jobs as the share of uninsured persons doubles and the health care industry has to absorb more uncompensated care, according to a study released today by health care economists at George Washington University.
Without a substitute for the Affordable Care Act adopted by Democrats in 2010, the repeal of the health care law could prove costly to hospitals, insurers and uninsured people, and that could ripple through much of the economy. Researchers at the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University predict the end of Obamacare could cost up to 2.6 million jobs nationwide.
But Republican critics of the law dismiss such claims since that study doesn't account for replacement plans they insist will be better and cheaper.
"ACA repeal could double the number of uninsured Americans, reduce access to health services and increase burdens for health care facilities," said Dr. Leighton Ku, director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University. "Our analysis demonstrates that the consequences could extend well beyond the health care system, triggering major reductions in employment and substantial losses in state economic activity."
Health care accounts for 18.5 percent of America's economy, and cutbacks in that industry are likely to reduce industry employment in Tennessee by 17,000 jobs and, through extension to the rest of the economy, cost another 40,000 jobs and $34.2 billion of lost gross state product by 2023, Ku said.
But those losses could be offset if a replacement for Obamacare is adopted as promised by President-elect Trump and the Republicans. Trump has pledged to maintain popular features of the Affordable Care Act, including the ban on denying health care coverage for those with pre-existing conditions and allowing young people to stay on their parents' health plans longer. ACA allows people to stay on their parents' plans until age 26.
Obamacare has helped to shrink the number of uninsured Tennesseans by 28 percent, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The plan is expected to largely stay in place this year and perhaps into 2018, even if Republicans move for its repeal as expected next week.
Critics insist the mandates on the types of coverage employers must offer or individuals must buy, along with the rise in health insurance premiums, has hurt business and employment growth.
U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., chairman of the Senate health committee that will help handle any health care reform plan, said Congress is working to develop a better replacement for the Affordable Care Act.
But first, Alexander said the Congress will repeal the law to "provide relief from the Obamacare emergency" of soaring premiums and regulatory burdens.
"As President-elect Trump has said, Congress should replace and repeal at the same time, which requires figuring out how to replace it before fully repealing it," Alexander said. "To avoid the historic mistakes of Obamacare, that replacement should be implemented step-by-step to minimize disruptions and make sure the changes in the system work well."
Alexander said "Conservatives especially know that a comprehensive health care solution - even a Republican one - for a country of 320 million people in 50 states won't work."
U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., has voted repeatedly to repeal Obamacare since he was elected to Congress six years ago.
"I am excited to work with President-elect Trump to repeal and replace this terrible law, which affects every aspect of our economy," Fleischmann said in a statement Thursday. "Obamacare has driven up premiums for millions, saddled states and taxpayers with long-term unsustainable costs, and placed far too much power in the hands of Washington bureaucrats. Our healthcare system needs a well thought out conservative plan that not only offers real market driven solutions, but one that gives American citizens and the healthcare industry time to plan and adjust."
As the Senate works through the 2017 budget and prepares for a budget reconciliation method to repeal most of Obamacare next week, there is still not a clear idea of the replacement for the health care plan. That is why Ku said his study wasn't able to calculate the potential gains from repealing Obamacare.
Ku insisted that charges six years ago that Obamacare would be a job killer have proven largely unfounded since more than 12 million jobs have been added in the United States since the law was adopted in 2010. This morning, the government is expected to report the 60th consecutive month of job growth nationwide.
But Obamacare critics insist job growth might have been faster without the law. By bringing more sick and unhealthy people into the pool of those with individual health insurance and increasing the mandates for such policies, premiums for individual plans also jumped from 40 up to 62 percent this year by the biggest insurers operating in Tennessee.
Alexander said such increases are not sustainable and will undermine the economy, if left unchecked.
Contact Dave Flessner at dflessner@timesfreepress.com or at 423-757-6340.