Political winds of change?
* Trump in the White House could bring more infrastructure, military spending, fewer business regulations* GOP maintains control in Nashville, but legislators will debate taxing internet sales and education funding and control, among other issues* Chattanooga City Hall is up for election, but most incumbents are seeking re-election.
The coming change in government in Washington and the upcoming local elections in Chattanooga could bring new government policies for businesses here in 2017.
Locally, things may stay pretty much the same. City Hall elections in March could bring new members to the City Council. But with the exception of District 4 Councilman Larry Grohn, every incumbent councilperson is running again, and a third of the nine council seat races will have no contest. So it's hard to say how many new local policies there'll be.
Technically, city elected office is nonpartisan. Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, a Democrat in a Democratic-leaning city, faces four challengers: Grohn, three-time former city councilman David Crockett, architectural consultant Chris Long and Gail M. Francis, chair of the Sign Language Interpreting Department at Tennessee Temple University.
State government remains strongly under GOP control.
Washington's a different story, since President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to make a number of changes in federal policy as he attempts to "drain the swamp." Both congressional chambers will be controlled by the Republicans for the first time since 2007.
Nostradamus himself would have a hard time predicting what will happen in Washington D.C.
"It's too early to tell anything," says Leila Pratt, the Hart Professor of Economics at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. "There's absolutely no way that anybody knows what's going to happen. There's a lot of rhetoric going around, but until they actually get in place and start doing something, you can't separate rhetoric from fact."
With that disclaimer in place, what might a Trump administration and a Republican-dominated U.S. Congress bring?
Business people here are paying attention on a number of fronts, including stimulus spending. Trump has vowed to spend $1 trillion to fix and build roads, bridges, airports, ports, routes and other infrastructure in America. How such infrastructure is paid for will be debated heavily, but more government-funded building projects could come.
Already since the election, the "Trump rally" has boosted Chattanooga's Astec Industries, which builds asphalt-laying equipment and other heavy machinery, and Miller Industries, which makes tow trucks.
Komatsu, which manufactures earth-moving equipment in Chattanooga, Astec Industries, Inc., and major road builders such as Wright Brothers Construction in Charleston, Tennessee, could get a boost.
"If he can, in effect, increase spending on infrastructure, then you think something like Astec Industries would benefit - but he has to get that through Congress," Pratt said.
Trump has vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, more commonly known as ObamaCare. That could have a big impact on Chattanooga's largest private employer, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee.
And Obamacare goes away, few businesses could be hit as hard as American Exchange, a startup business that was created to tap into the individual health exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act.
"Could he come into office on [January] 21st and drop 23 million people off health insurance plans? I don't think so," said Andrew Hetzler, chief operating officer for American Exchange, which has 15 licensed agents and just moved into new offices in the refurbished Fleetwood Building in downtown Chattanooga.
"As far as we understand, the soonest that anything could really happen is 2018," Hetzler said, adding. "I think there are some things that he'll keep. I don't think they'll exclude pre-existing conditions."
Even if Obamacare goes away, American Exchange should have business, Hetzler said.
"I think we would be able to adapt. I think the individual market will be around for a while," he says. "Employers are going to be continually stressed by the cost of health insurance for their employees. There's got to be a viable individual market. The trend is, employers are not going to be offering health insurance more and more."
What other federal changes could have an impact here?
- Fewer regulations: Is the end near for such federal agencies as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau or even the Environmental Protection Agency? Payday lenders - a big industry in Tennessee - and banks may enjoy a lessening of regulations from the CFPB board, which many Republicans want to see abolished. EPA also will likely cut back regulations and could even be eliminated as a cabinet agency. That could fewer air pollution control regulations.
- Trade and import changes: Tennessee has enjoyed as much direct foreign investment as any state for its size and its exports continue to grow. But Trump's America-first policy could offer more protection for domestic companies but perhaps challenges for growing trade by companies involved in exports. Textile and appliance firms could benefit here, such as Whirlpool, Hardwick Clothes in Cleveland, Tennessee. But exporters could be challenged.