Sometimes the unexpected happens.
The oft-called greatest film of all time, "Citizen Kane," lost out to Welsh coal-mining tale "How Green Was My Valley" in 1942. Rumors circulated that presenter Jack Palance had said the wrong name when Marisa Tomei won the Supporting Actress Oscar for "My Cousin Vinny" in 1993. "Brokeback Mountain" "Crash"-ed and burned at the 2006 ceremony.
Sometimes, there is glory:
Martin Scorsese finally taking home the statue after seven previous nominations in 2007. Halle Berry being the first black woman to win a Lead Actress Oscar in 2002. Kate Winslet waving excitedly to her father when she finally won after five losses.
Sometimes there are just hilariously memorable moments.
Ben Stiller and Natalie Portman spoofing Joaquin Phoenix. Adrien Brody kissing Berry. Palance's one-armed pushups. Sally Field's notorious "you like me" speech. The streaker of '74.
It's Oscar night. Anything can happen.
BEST PICTURE
* Nominees: "Avatar," "The Blind Side," "District 9," "An Education," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire," "A Serious Man," "Up" and "Up in the Air."
* Factors: The Golden Globe to Oscar translation is less common here than in the acting categories. Introducing the 10-nominee approach this year makes this a less predictable category than in the past and puts some of the fun back into the race. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced Tuesday that a producer on "The Hurt Locker" has been denied admittance to the ceremony for violating campaigning standards. But did his aggressive tactics make an impact on voter decisions?
* Phillips: Should win: "The Hurt Locker." Will win: "Avatar."
* Leber: Should win: "The Hurt Locker." Will win: "The Hurt Locker."
BEST ACTOR
* Nominees: Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart"), George Clooney ("Up in the Air"), Colin Firth ("A Single Man"), Morgan Freeman ("Invictus") and Jeremy Renner ("The Hurt Locker").
* Factors: Emotional politics and statistical bleedover from winning a Golden Globe may end up being decisive in this category. Since 1980, about two-thirds of Globe acting winners also have taken home the Oscar. This year's favorite, Jeff Bridges, already has the Globe, as well as four unsuccessful Academy nominations to his name. And at 61, he's old enough that sentiment could shift the scales even further in his favor.
Phillips: Should win: Jeff Bridges. Will win: Jeff Bridges.
Leber: Should win: Jeff Bridges. Will win: Jeff Bridges.
BEST ACTRESS
* Nominees: Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side"), Helen Mirren ("The Last Station"), Carey Mulligan ("An Education"), Gabourey Sidibe ("Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire") and Meryl Streep ("Julie & Julia").
* Factors: This is one of the most unpredictable categories this year. Despite a stunning breakout performance, statistics are not on Gabourey Sidibe's side. She's nominated for her first role (the last time an actress won lead for her first performance was Marlee Matlin in 1987), she won neither the Screen Actors Guild nor Golden Globe Award (Marion Cotillard defied those odds in 2008, but it's a rarity), and she's black (Halle Berry is the only black woman to win the honor). The odds favor Sandra Bullock, but honestly this one's a crapshoot.
Phillips: Should win: Gabourey Sidibe. Will win: Sandra Bullock.
Leber: Should win: Gabourey Sidibe. Will win: Gabourey Sidibe.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Nominees: Matt Damon ("Invictus"), Woody Harrelson ("The Messenger"), Christopher Plummer ("The Last Station"), Stanley Tucci ("The Lovely Bones") and Christoph Waltz ("Inglourious Basterds").
* Factors: Generally, it's not politically correct to refer to someone as a fabulous Nazi, but Christoph Waltz was a fabulous Nazi in "Inglourious Basterds." Having won at Cannes, the Globes, the SAGs, the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, he's pretty much locked it.
Phillips: Should win: Christoph Waltz. Will win: Christoph Waltz.
Leber: Should win: Christoph Waltz. Will win: Christoph Waltz.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Nominees: Penelope Cruz ("Nine"), Vera Farmiga ("Up in the Air"), Maggie Gyllenhaal ("Crazy Heart"), Anna Kendrick ("Up in the Air") and Mo'Nique ("Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire").
* Factors: With both a Screen Actors Guild Award and the Golden Globe on her mantel already, Mo'Nique may already have this category sewn up. In the last 15 years, when the SAGs and Globes have agreed on this category -- which has happened eight times -- the Academy has followed suit 75 percent of the time.
Phillips: Should win: Mo'Nique. Will win: Mo'Nique.
Leber: Should win: Mo'Nique. Will win: Mo'Nique.
BEST DIRECTOR
* Nominees: James Cameron ("Avatar"), Kathryn Bigelow ("The Hurt Locker"), Quentin Tarantino ("Inglourious Basterds"), Lee Daniels ("Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire") and Jason Reitman ("Up in the Air").
* Factors: This category is still very much up in the air (though not in the Jason Reitman sense). Having taken the Directors Guild award, Kathryn Bigelow has a slight statistical advantage over ex-husband and main contender James Cameron, but historically, there's a thick glass ceiling between women and a Best Directing Oscar. Bigelow is only the fifth woman to even be nominated, and no woman has ever won. Cameron is the favorite, but Quentin Tarantino could be a dark horse.
Phillips: Should win: Kathryn Bigelow. Will win: James Cameron.
Leber: Should win: Kathryn Bigelow. Will win: James Cameron.
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RELATED STORIES
For full results from tonight's Academy Award presentation, read the Monday edition of the Times Free Press.
Read other 2009 film reviews by Casey Phillips and Holly Leber online.
REAL-TIME CHAT: Join Holly Leber and Casey Phillips for an online chat during the Oscars tonight at timesfreepress.com/oscars.
TUNE IN: The 82nd annual Academy Awards will air tonight at 8 on ABC.
E-mail Casey Phillips at cphillips@timesfreepress.com. E-mail Holly Leber at hleber@timesfreepress.com.