Prediction: Fifty years from now, driving an automobile will be a niche hobby, like horseback riding or hang-glider piloting today.
In the here and now, in 2018, we all are still slaves to our automobiles. But that will change, perhaps more quickly than you'd expect.
I was talking to a young, blue-collar worker the other day who told me that he and his wife spend nearly $1,000 a month on auto expenses, principally car payments and insurance.
Meanwhile, both their vehicles need new transmissions, which they hope will be covered by warranties. They spend the equivalent of a mortgage payment on auto expenses every month, for which they get the privilege of owning two unreliable, depreciating assets.
Part of my job at the newspaper is writing car reviews. I love cars, especially ones with leather seats that smell like a new baseball glove. I love the way it feels to have heads turn my way in traffic when I'm driving the latest Lexus or Mercedes-Benz.
I understand the American love affair with automobiles as well as anyone, but I also know that the future may make us a less auto-centric nation out of necessity.
I had a call from a nice gentleman last week who asked for my recommendation on a new convertible. He had some space in his garage, he said, and thought it would be nice to have a rag-top to drive on blue-sky weekends.
"What's your budget?" I asked him, trying to narrow the field a bit.
"Oh, I'd spend up to $100,000 on the right car," he said, without hesitating.
"OK," I said, chuckling, as my mind immediately shifted from suggesting the Mazda Miata to pushing the gorgeous Jaguar F-Type. (Both excellent cars by the way, although at wildly different price points.)
People ask me all the time how folks afford six-figure cars. I shrug and tell them that I rarely see a luxury car store on the rocks, while used-car lots often struggle to make their monthly sales quotas.
All this is to say that the auto business means different things to different people. For some it means basic transportation; for others driving nice cars is form of recreation.
For those of us in the middle class, finding ways to cut our transportation bills will be a theme of coming years. Take this from a guy who cleans oil leaks off the driveway at home: The petroleum-based internal combustion engine is doomed in the long run.
Two technologies will converge to make this possible. Get ready for the age of electric-powered, autonomous cars. Yes, for future generations, automobiles will be more like appliances, simple conveyances to get from Point A to Point B, not status symbols.
Of course there will always be collectors. Nostalgia for internal combustion engine autos may last 100 years or more. But our children will soon be buckling up and plugging in.
It's funny how quickly technology reaches a tipping point. If you had told people in 1970 that vinyl records would virtually disappear in 20 years, they would have thought you were crazy.
Forbes reported late last year that a sophisticated computer model estimates that 65 percent to 75 percent of the automotive market share will be captured by electronic vehicles by 2050. I have a son who will be in his early 40s then.
Electric cars cost less to power and maintain. Too, autonomous driving systems will allow next-generation drivers to do what they much prefer to do while traveling - plug into technology - while improving safety and lowering insurance costs.
A generation from now, people like my young, blue-collar friend at the top of this column may pay pennies on the dollar, compared to now, for their transportation cost.
That will raise their quality of life in a host of ways.
Here's a good comparison. Most Americans have more disposable income today than their grandparents largely because of a 50-year decline in the relative cost of food.
In the half-century after 1960, the average share of per capita income spent on food fell from 17.5 percent to 9.6 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That's about a 45 percent decline.
If the same thing happens in transportation - and it could - our kids will be sitting pretty in the second half of the 21st century.
Contact Mark Kennedy at mkennedy@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6645.