Rainfall by the numbers
October average: 3.28 inchesOctober 2015: 6.6 inchesOctober 2014: 6.30 inches***September average: 4.04 inchesSeptember 2015: 2.38 inchesSeptember 2014: 2.48 inches***November average: 5.0 inchesThrough Nov. 8: 1.59 inchesNovember 2014 total: 3.45 inches
The Scenic City is going to be a soggy city for the foreseeable future.
November has brought little reprieve from an October that was more than twice as wet as usual, and the dreariness is unlikely to relent soon.
An above-average 1.59 inches of rain fell through the first eight days of November, and the National Weather Service is projecting the rain to continue falling.
Rain is in the forecast for Chattanooga today and Thursday. The weekend could bring sunny weather and temperatures near 60 degrees, but that is unlikely to be the norm as fall continues.
The National Weather Service's 30-day outlook predicts more rain than usual heading into December, and it will be falling on top of the 6.6 inches the area endured during October.
"It's just a pattern that is lingering in the area right now," said Mary Black, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service's Morristown, Tenn., office. Black was hesitant to attribute the rain to El Nio, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that some experts say is heavily affecting the South this fall.
AccuWeather is less reticent. Its forecast says parts of Alabama, Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi could be at risk for flooding early this week because of El Nio, and it could be part of the explanation for the recent rainfall in the tri-state area.
And WRCB-TV meteorologist Nick Austin said of El Nio, "I wouldn't discount it," adding, "It has probably played some role."
Austin explained El Nio as a change in ocean surface temperatures that causes changes in weather patterns. He added that Hurricane Joaquin was indirectly responsible for some of the area's early October rain.
The recent rain in Chattanooga has been a distinct change after an unusually dry September.
The Chattanooga area experienced just 2.38 inches of rainfall in September, compared to 6.6 inches in October.
Historically, the average rainfall in September is 4.04 inches for the area and 3.28 inches for October.
"What is happening, is when we have an El Nio pattern, and it's a very strong one this year, when that happens, you have the jet stream split into two streams," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jack Boston said. "One goes across the northern United States and the other comes across the south, and that's the stream that is responsible for the greater-than-usual precipitation."
This was the second year in a row Mother Nature disrespected the averages and poured substantially more rain on the area in October than September.
Chattanooga's year-to-date precipitation total through Nov. 7 is 51.25 inches, which is nearly 8 inches above average.
Nine high school football games throughout the area were moved from Friday to Thursday last week due to inclement weather threats, and games in the tri-state area have been affected by weather three of the last six weeks.
Lake levels in the region are all still below normal.
Boston said steady precipitation is likely in December but the chances of snow are no higher than usual.
Contact staff writer David Cobb at dcobb@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6249.