"We have to recognize that with the U.S. Senate control up for grabs in 2018, every Senate race will be affected by far-off voices and funds."
I wrote those words in a column a few weeks ago, and with Phil Bredesen's official announcement yesterday that he's entering the race to fill Bob Corker's U.S. Senate seat, it would be safe to assume that a chorus of "far-off voices" and a mountain of their funds are going be directed toward Tennessee.
Why?
It's simple. Because with Bredesen running, for the first time in what probably feels like an eternity for many on the left, Democrats have a candidate competing in a statewide race who can actually, you know, compete. By "compete," I don't mean "not perform embarrassingly poorly." I mean maybe win. Yes, in Tennessee. Who'd a-thunk it?
David MartinNow I'm not suggesting that the path to possible victory for the Democrat will be clear of obstacles, that by merely throwing his name on the ballot Phil flips the seat from red to blue. Far from it. There are, after all, many tough realities facing the Bredesen camp.
As soon as word got out Wednesday that the former Nashville mayor and Tennessee governor is going to run, numerous outlets noted that Bredesen has not campaigned in 11 years. Shaking off the rust at 74 years of age might not be the easiest thing.
The other reality, noted routinely, is that since he last ran, the political climate in Tennessee has shifted dramatically. Indeed, it has. Yet while the state does bleed dark red, politically speaking, the issue I've wondered about the most is how fully embraced Bredesen will be by his own party.
Bredesen is an older-model Democrat, commonly referred to as a fiscally conservative political moderate. So sure, the state has lurched rightward since his last campaign win, but his party, too, has moved away from the middle. Bernie Sanders, anyone?
My guess is that while there could be some grumbling from the activist wings of the Democratic Party, the fact that they have a candidate who can go head-to-head with Marsha Blackburn - yes, I assume the current U.S. representative will win the Republican primary - will pacify most of any discontent.
Now you might be thinking, "wait a minute, doesn't Bredesen have to win the Democratic primary first?" Mmmhmm. And as the kids say, LOL.
Bredesen will actually have to win that, true. However, any Democrat running against him will be - and I'm just going to be blunt here - wasting their time. Which is probably why Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke took to Twitter yesterday morning to end speculation about his own possible bid for Senate and instead endorse the, in his words, "brilliant" Bredesen.
Previously, the Cook Political Report said the race would be a tossup with Bredesen entering. It will be, and we shouldn't expect anything besides a very noisy battle that will capture the political attention of the entire country. Tennessee will become ground zero for control of the U.S. Senate. Batten down the hatches, friends.
Whatever the outcome, this race will be tightly contested. I assume Blackburn will flex her conservative bona fides as much as possible. She can't not. Doing so has won races for many GOPers over the last few years. But how successful that playbooks pans out versus a moderate Democrat will be very instructive to outside eyes on both the right and the left.
Especially in places similar to Tennessee.
I hope you like following politics, dear reader, because that's about all you're going to hear about in the Volunteer State in 2018.
Contact David Allen Martin at davidallenmartin423@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DMart423.