The only thing certain about political races is that their outcomes are uncertain until voters go to the polls on Election Day.
It's late August now, so in a little over a year and two months, the American people will be casting ballots in the November 2012 presidential and congressional elections.
Considering President Barack Obama's low job approval rating and the weak economy, there is occasional talk of some other Democrat -- perhaps Hillary Clinton -- challenging him for the nomination next year. But realistically, it is assumed that Obama will be the 2012 Democrat candidate.
What is less clear at this point is which Republican is going to challenge him. Iowa will get the ball rolling with its caucuses early next year, and other states' primaries and caucuses will be held in the ensuing months to pick a GOP nominee.
It'll be a complicated process. A candidate can seem to be the front-runner, only to make an embarrassing gaffe on the campaign trail and lose that top status. Or, a dark horse candidate can shock the entire field by winning an early caucus or primary. You may recall, for instance, that Barack Obama surprised Hillary Clinton in 2008 by defeating her and John Edwards in the Iowa caucuses, and then going on to win the Democrat nomination and the White House.
But things have not gone so well for Obama in the years since. Unemployment has been above 9 percent for almost all of his presidency -- including the time when he had a Democrat-run U.S. House of Representatives and a filibuster-proof Democrat majority in the Senate. Although our national debt was far too large before he took office, it has gotten vastly larger under his leadership. And our country remains painfully involved in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq -- in addition to the president's decision to have the United States join in bombings of Libya.
The question on the minds of many, therefore, is whether one of the GOP hopefuls can defeat the president. Here is a little background information on the main contenders:
• Texas Gov. Rick Perry has some obvious advantages: His state has had much better employment growth than most of the nation the past few years, and it has low taxes. Perry also seems to stir a good bit of enthusiasm among Republicans, with opinion polls showing him leaping to the top spot among the GOP candidates just shortly after he entered the race.
One possible negative for Perry is his stance on immigration. While he has taken a tougher line against illegal immigration recently, he previously supported a Texas law that granted in-state tuition rates to illegal aliens. He will have to reassure conservative voters that he believes in firm enforcement of laws against illegal immigration.
• Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came close to winning the GOP nomination over Sen. John McCain in 2008. He espouses generally conservative views on most economic and social issues, though many observers believe the health care program he promoted in Massachusetts is a bit too much like ObamaCare. Still, he is a candidate to be reckoned with, and he may draw some moderate independent backers who might not support Perry.
• U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is soundly conservative, with a congressional record to prove it. She may be at a disadvantage compared with Perry and Romney, however, when it comes to fundraising. It is also uncertain whether she would be able to inspire enough broad voter enthusiasm to defeat Obama in the general election. We respect Bachmann and appreciate her conservative principles, but her work is clearly cut out for her if she expects to win the nomination and the presidency.
The handful of other Republican candidates or potential candidates -- including Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain and Sarah Palin -- enjoy some name recognition. But it would probably take some serious missteps by the current top candidates for one of these other hopefuls to make a big showing in the primaries.
So while the 2012 field is still a bit hazy, some of the haze is beginning to clear.
It would be wise for us all to learn as much as possible about the candidates, because we want and most definitely need the best one to be our next president.