One in 5,417 residents in Chattanooga was the victim of a homicide in 2016. Thus, the chances of any one person suffering such a fate are pretty small.
If you're white, the chances are even smaller, statistics say. If you're white and a woman, smaller still. If you're white, a woman and not affiliated with a gang, practically infinitesimal.
But that's not good enough. One homicide is one too many.
Homicides in Chattanooga rose to 32 in 2016, the highest total since 2001. Shootings rose 11 percent from 119 in 2015 to 132 in 2016.
City officials naturally want to soften the harsh face of the violent crime figures. And from a practical sense and a political standpoint, it makes sense to do so.
In the final eight months of 2016, Chattanooga Police Chief Fred Fletcher says, the number of shootings was the same number as 2015. So, it could be said accurately that the pace of shootings fell off after the first of the year.
Over that same period, he says, the percentage of gang-involved shootings dropped. That coincided, he says, with the employment after May 1 of several anti-violence strategies by police.
In addition, more guns came off the street in 2016 as compared to 2015 - 18 percent more, Fletcher says. What he can't enumerate but what we all know to be true is that there are more guns out there than ever. And, he says, the 2014 law that allowed legal gun owners to keep their weapons in their cars has caused an increase in thefts of those guns.
The overwhelming majority of Chattanoogans can go back and forth from home to work, to shop, to take advantage of the downtown nightlife, to visit across the city and never come near gun crime.
That could redound well to Mayor Andy Berke, as he seeks a second term in less than two months. But Berke put a portion of his reputation on the line in 2014 when he made a commitment to the Violence Reduction Initiative (VRI).
"Ultimately, my focus is on stopping the shootings," he said in June 2013, mentioning what would become VRI as one of methods the city would use. "Every shooting affects the community. They make people feel less safe in their neighborhoods."
David Kennedy, the national criminologist who was a consultant to the rollout of the initiative, was even more blunt five months later as the city prepared to launch VRI.
"If homicides, gun woundings for instance, go down, then things are moving in the right direction," he said. "If they don't, it's not working."
Chattanooga residents remember those promises and others like them. But whether they're ready to put the blame on Berke - most of them, after all, live in their safe bubbles - and elect someone else is uncertain. But Berke's mayoral opponents certainly are.
City Councilman Larry Grohn says VRI is making things worse, that "the violence is spreading" and that he would "restore peace and safety to Chattanooga's neighborhoods." He also said he would, within four years, build a new technical high school, which would be aimed at creating more living-wage jobs for residents living in the inner city. The suggestion, in fact, is one of the same ones made by the local NAACP when the VRI was launched nearly three years ago.
Former city Councilman David Crockett told a local news blog that instead of the VRI, which has a carrot-and-stick approach to crime, he prefers to "treat criminals like criminals. If you've got a 9 mm gun, you're a criminal. You're a threat. You're a domestic terrorist."
Chris Long, a businessman and fourth mayoral candidate, says "our greatest need as a city is to protect its citizens from acts of violence against the community."
Berke himself is not immune to the homicides, the shootings and the trends. But he says he doesn't look at VRI as a complete solution.
Putting the right tools in the hands of police officers, supporting those officers, aggressive prosecution of perpetrators and continued investment in people through the likes of youth programs are all parts, he says. The community itself also must do more, he says, and "strong families" must help "get [gang members] back on the right track."
With property crime and overall violent crime down, Berke says, the focus should be and will be on guns. With a record number of sworn police officers (486) on the force, that will be more doable than it has been in the past, he said.
"Gun violence must stop," Berke said when he kicked off his re-election campaign late last summer. "It must."
Because while one homicide for every 5,417 residents in Chattanooga is much better than one homicide for every 3,568 residents in Chicago in 2016, we'd prefer the numbers were going the other way.