No one in or out of international diplomatic circles can ever say with certainty what is taking place in North Korea. There is some agreement, though, that Kim Jong II's decision this week to name Kim Jong Un, his youngest son, to positions of prominence might be a sign that the youngster is now the presumptive heir of the current head of state. Whether that is true or not is hard to verify, as is speculation that a change in rulers - when and if it occurs - will alter the reclusive nation's internal and external policies.
What is known is intriguing. Kim Jong Un, heretofore relatively unknown, was appointed this week to a top position in North Korea's ruling communist party, He was also promoted to four-star general in the military. Those certainly are signs that Kim Jong Un is in favor and likely would succeed Kim Jong II, who reportedly has been ill, if the latter is unable to govern or dies. So little is known about the heir apparent, though, that experts around the world now are scrambling to assemble dossiers on him and his possible political motivations. It will be a difficult task.
There are only a couple of photos of Kim Jong Un extant and about the only things widely known about him are that he likely is still in his 20s, that he is reported to have been educated, at least partially, in Switzerland, and that he is a fan of NBA basketball. That's hardly the usual resume for someone who could become the sole leader of a country that has expressed a frightening willingness to use its nuclear capability to promote its interests.
Indeed, North Korea is likely to remain much as it is now even if there is a change in political leadership. Whoever is in charge likely will continue to employ nuclear brinksmanship to retain power and to coerce other nations to meet its demands. North Korean intransigence likely will continue to roil the world of international diplomacy.
That won't please the coalition of nations - the United States, Japan, China, Russia and South Korea - working to get North Korea to join nuclear disarmament talks. Without satisfactory resolution of that issue, continued international sanctions and ostracism will make it impossible for North Korea to obtain the assistance and materiel it needs to rebuild its economy and improve the lot of its people. A new leader, however, might choose a different path.
Given the secrecy in North Korea, it is impossible to predict, much less know, if that will be the case. The week's announcements in Pyongyang indicate there is change afoot in the rogue nation, but not what it might mean. There's always hope that a new leader, whenever he or she assumes power, might bend just enough to engage more positively with other nations. But this is North Korea, so don't bet a lot on it happening.