A delay in 'Arab Spring'?

There was great hope earlier this year that the so-called "Arab Spring" uprisings would end the deeply entrenched tradition of autocratic government in much of the Muslim world. That dream remains viable, but recent events suggest that replacing repressive governments with representative ones won't be easy as once thought. On-going events in Syria attest to the difficulty of bringing positive regime change to nations accustomed to autocratic, if not dictatorial, rule.

Generally peaceful demonstrations against the authoritarian rule of President Bashar Assad started in March. They've achieved little. The military has responded to the calls for reform with a ferocity that has outraged much of the world. About 1,700 people have been killed and thousands more wounded in confrontations between pro-democracy activists and government forces. Activists indicate, as well, that at least 12,000 people have been detained, most without a chance to contact their families or legal counsel.

The violent repression continued Sunday and Monday. Reports indicate more than 70 people killed in two days, most in Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city. World leaders understandably reacted with alarm and condemnation, as they have done with regularity since Assad's violent repression began. Their concern doesn't seem to matter.

Assad clearly is determined to hold on to power, whatever the cost in the lives of the people he rules and whatever opprobrium it elicits from world leaders. For the moment, he seems to have the upper hand. Escalating sanctions seem to have little effect on the regime, and Western and other nations that would like to bring an end to the violence have very little diplomatic or financial clout to bear on Assad. In Syria, at least, the "Arab Spring" movement seemingly is delayed if not derailed.

Indeed, it is increasingly evident that the momentum for governmental change in Arab nations, which seemed so promising in March, is now making only incremental advances in most locales.

Autocratic regimes in Tunisia and Egypt were toppled, but creating stable, democratic governmental structures in their stead has proved to be an elusive task. And while some change has come to Libya, Yemen and Bahrain in the wake of pro-democracy movements, the old guard continues to wield significant power in each nation.

Political reform in many Arab nations surely will come. Eventually, repression will give way to the public call for freedom by hundreds of thousands of protesters. Syria's bloody response to that demand is designed to force submission to the regime. It might even allow Assad to retain power for a while, but the continued cry for rights in the face of such brutality suggests something else. The long-term survival of Assad and other Arab autocrats is increasingly at risk.

Upcoming Events