What exactly has Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker seen in the tea leaves of American and Tennessee politics - and the Trump administration - that soured his recent flirtation with re-entering the Senate race?
Corker, once thought to be on the short list for a nomination as Donald Trump's vice president or secretary of state, announced in the fall that he would retire from the Senate after spending a good portion of 2017 in nasty spats with Trump. But in mid-February a spokesman said Corker began to reconsider retirement at the request of establishment Republicans who argued that without his candidacy, the GOP could lose the seat this November.
The fear is not unfounded. The current top GOP contender, Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Brentwood, seems unlikely to beat centrist Democrat Phil Bredesen, a former two-term Tennessee governor. A Public Opinion Strategies survey of the race conducted for a Tennessee business group gave Bredesen a 47-percent-of-the-vote advantage to Blackburn's 45 percent, according to Politico and Fox News.
The Tennessee race is key: Republicans hold a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate.
But just a few months ago and in the wake of Corker's fights with Trump, polls were showing a decline in the senator's support. A November survey by the Mason-Dixon polling firm found that more than 50 percent of Tennessee voters then approved of how the president was handling his job, but only 40 percent of voters approved of Corker. The firm's poll found that only 32 percent of respondents said they would vote for Corker in 2018.
Corker's announcement Tuesday that he would stick with his Senate retirement plan made no mention of those polls.
"We spent the last few days doing our due diligence and a clear path for re-election was laid out," Chief of Staff Todd Womack said. "However, at the end of the day, the senator believes he made the right decision in September and will be leaving the Senate when his term expires at the end of 2018."
For Democrats, Corker's announcement is no particular boon. Had he chosen to fight Blackburn in the primary, the ensuing ugly mess would expose a showdown between establishment Republicans and the ultra conservative/tea party wing of the GOP. The split could only help push more voters to darken the D circles on their ballots.
Much of the primary rhetoric would have centered on who has supported Trump and who hasn't.
Corker, Senate Foreign Relations chairman, has spoken truth to power with Trump. In August after Trump's handling of the racially motivated protests in Charlottesville, Va., Corker said the Trump White House was "in a downward spiral," and the president "has not yet been able to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence" to be successful." In October, after a Trump tweet rant disparaging "Liddle Bob," Corker tweeted back: "It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning."
Reportedly, the two "made up," and things quieted down. Still, subsequent polls showed Corker lost voter support after the fray.
The Washington Post on Tuesday noted that the White House never issued any public statement of support on Corker's behalf in the Senate race, leaving him "without cover against a potential torrent of brutal political attacks in a contested primary over his past statements criticizing the president." Meanwhile, Blackburn has sought to strengthen her ties to the White House, "holding conversations with senior adviser Kellyanne Conway and others, as her allies touted her as a strong backer of the president."
So now what for Corker?
Might he continue to watch the way the wind blows with Special Counsel Robert Mueller's probe and then jockey for a chance to be Mike Pence's VP, secretary of state or chief of staff?
Or might he wait for Trump to garner still more unfavorability and then primary him in 2020?
Any, none or all of the above might be possible.
There are plenty of Tennesseans and Americans - even among Democrats - who would feel safer under Corker leadership than either under Blackburn's bumbling or Trump's chaos.
Blackburn bowed to the lobbying dollars and clout of major opioid makers in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. She pushed legislation that helped the drug makers exacerbate the opioid epidemic.
Similarly, Trump - even with mounting evidence of Russian meddling in our 2016 election that the president denies - still refuses to enforce Congress-required sanctions against Russia. Trump has yet to authorize our top intelligence agencies to take action to further protect our elections.
Though it seems unlikely, Corker could waffle again. The candidate filing deadline for the August Senate primary is April 5.