NASHVILLE -- New figures now project an estimated 280,000 low-income Tennesseans would initially qualify to enroll in Gov. Bill Haslam's proposed Insure Tennessee program, 40 percent more than original projections.
Administration officials released the revised figures Wednesday in a presentation ahead of a special session next week for state legislators to debate Haslam's proposal for a two-year pilot project.
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Meanwhile, a TennCare-commissioned actuarial study estimates the program's costs in the first six months beginning Jan. 1, 2016, would be $664.28 million.
All costs during that period would be borne by the federal government under President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act. Starting July 1, 2017, federal funding would begin to shrink until the state was paying 10 percent of the cost by 2020. Hospitals in the state have volunteered to pay that cost by raising the existing 4.52 percent assessment on net income.
The first full year of Insure Tennessee's implementation -- July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017 -- would cost $1.42 billion to cover 293,800 people, according to the actuarial study.
Tennessee's share of that for the first six months of fiscal 2017 would be $35.56 million.
In the first half of fiscal year 2018 -- July 1, 2017, to Dec. 31, 2017 -- covering 307,600 people would cost $766.64 million. The state's share would be $38.33 million.
Haslam said that at that point the program would end, unless he believes it has met its goals and is financially sustainable.
Casey Dungan, chief financial officer for TennCare, said Wednesday the new estimates of enrollees are based on projections from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Kaiser Family Foundation, which provide in-depth information on health policy issues including Medicaid and Medicare.
State officials had previously cited figures of around 200,000 people, mostly adults, who would benefit from what Haslam calls his "market-driven" plan to use federal Medicaid dollars to extend health care insurance to people who currently can't afford it.
Contact staff writer Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-255-0550.