NASHVILLE - Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton by 12 points among likely Tennessee voters, according to a new Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted after last week's presidential debate.
Trump, the billionaire businessman and former reality TV star, was ahead of former Secretary of State Clinton by 48-36 percent among voters asked whether they were backing the two major party candidates or other candidates.
In this Sept. 5, 2016, file photo, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds up a book entitled "Stronger Together" as she speaks in Cleveland, Ohio. When Clinton arrives in Ohio on Oct. 3, she'll mark her first appearance in the Midwestern battleground in almost a month.
FILE - In this May 18, 2016 file photo, Libertarian presidential candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson speaks with legislators at the Utah State Capitol in Salt Lake City. Johnson, a triathlete who has climbed Mt. Everest, on Sept. 30, released a letter from his doctor declaring him “extremely physically fit” with no medical issues. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File) 
FILE - In this July 26, 2016 file photo, Dr. Jill Stein, presumptive Green Party presidential nominee, speaks at a rally in Philadelphia during the Democratic National Convention. Angry and disaffected Bernie Sanders’ backers have a new rallying cry: “Jill not Hill.” That’s Green Party candidate Jill Stein, whose liberal agenda of tuition-free college, $15-per-hour minimum wage and a renewable energy economy by 2030 offers a home to Sanders’ supporters disillusioned by the two-party political system and unwilling to back Democrat Hillary Clinton. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File) Five percent said they were backing Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, while 1 percent said they backed Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
The MTSU survey of 600 registered voters was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 2. Poll officials said 472, or 79 percent, were identified as likely voters based on a series of questions about past voting behavior and voting intention.
When pollsters asked voters to choose just between Trump and Clinton, 50 percent of likely voters went for Trump while 40 percent chose Clinton, a 10-point difference. The poll had a plus-or-minus 4 percent margin of error.
Tennessee has generally been viewed as a safe Republican state.
Still, said Dr. Ken Blake, MTSU poll director, "barely half of Tennessee's likely voters support Mr. Trump. But that is more than enough for him to decisively defeat his opponents and win the state's 11 electoral college votes."
The MTSU poll also found that the majority of respondents who voted in Tennessee's March 7 Democratic and Republican primaries for candidates other than Trump or Clinton were nonetheless sticking with their respective party nominees.
"Despite a lot of speculation about party defections from unpopular candidates following divisive primaries, only small minorities of voters report that they are voting for someone other than their party's nominee in the general election after voting for a primary rival," said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the MTSU poll.
Poll respondents were divided on the major party's nominees' qualifications.
Forty-nine percent agreed Trump is up to the task of serving as president. Six percent neither agreed nor disagreed. But 42 percent said they don't think Trump is capable.
Meanwhile, 47 percent agreed Clinton is up to the job of being president. Five percent neither agreed nor disagreed. And 46 percent don't think Clinton is up to the job.
Clinton's also taking a major hit on the honesty factor, with only about one in four, or 26 percent, saying they think the former First Lady is honest. Nine percent had no opinion.
Nearly two thirds - 63 percent - disagreed when asked if they thought Clinton is honest.
Thirty-nine percent agreed that Trump is honest, while 13 percent had no opinion. And 42 percent disagreed with the notion that Trump is honest.
Still, while three quarters of those surveyed don't think Clinton is honest, almost 49 percent nonetheless said they thought Clinton has the temperament to effectively serve as president. Five percent neither agreed nor disagreed. Forty-three percent disagreed that Clinton has the proper temperament.
Meanwhile, only 41 percent agreed Trump has the temperament to be president. Eight percent offered no opinion. And 48 percent said they didn't think he had the proper temperament.
"Although Trump easily leads when it comes to vote choice, when it comes to qualities that matter in a president - competence, integrity, and temperament - perceptions of the candidates are much more closely divided," Reineke said, "But honesty is clearly an issue for Clinton. At the same time, honesty and emotional control may well be issues for Trump."
As to who will win the contest nationally, 43 percent of registered Tennessee voters said they expect Clinton to beat Trump. Only 35 percent said Trump would win in the 50-state contest.
But a pretty good number of Tennesseans - 21 percent - say they simply don't know who'll win right now.
The general election is Nov. 8. Early voting in Tennessee begins Oct. 19 and runs through Nov. 3. The last day to register to vote here is Oct. 11.
Contact Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-255-0550.