Greeson: SEC Blitz preview

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SEC items of interest

Here are five things we are intrigued by this week in the SEC:

1. How does Alabama respond?

Nick Saban got ill with the media this week because it was Tuesday. Or because it was the media. Or maybe because it was a Tuesday with the media. Anyhoo, dude looked motivated, and unless that was because Lane Kiffin ate his Oatmeal Creme Pie, we expect an improved performance against a Texas A&M defense that has been part pacifist and part Swiss (cheese or military -- either works here). And the Aggies are downright cute when they try to cover opposing receivers. Over/under for Amari Cooper catches is 10, and we think Verne and Gary are going to have to find second-half filler in this runaway.

2. Can the young UT offensive line survive the trip to Oxford?

Maybe the question should be about Justin Worley, who will have to have his head on a swivel against the SEC's most complete defense that is very good at each level. This is the worst matchup of the season for a banged-up Volunteers bunch, and that includes next week's date with Alabama.

3. Are the Wildcats ready for prime time?

Kentucky goes to Death Valley in Baton Rouge for a night game with a chance to get bowl-eligible before Halloween. Yes, you read that correctly. Are the Wildcats ready? We'll see, and know this: LSU is about to play its eighth game in eight weeks, and after a physically and emotional draining trip to the Swamp, the dominoes are in place for the Cats.

4. Just about everything in the Georgia-Arkansas game

This entire matchup is intriguing to us. We like the running backs on both sides. We like the defensive playmakers in the front seven. We almost like the fact that Bret Bielema almost cried after the one-point loss to Alabama. We really like the way Georgia coach Mark Richt said plainly that big things are in front of the Hogs, he just hoped it doesn't happen this Saturday. And we want to see which QB -- Brandon Allen or Hutson Mason -- delivers.

5. Which quarterback will stink less?

Missouri's Maty Mauk and Florida's Jeff Driskel are ranked next to last and last in the SEC, respectively. The Tom Emanski folks need to film this one on what not to do.

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Fab 4 picks

We are doubting some of our long-held entertainment investment strategies. We are struggling and looking for an edge. If we were Nuke LaLoosh, we'd think about wearing a garter. If we were Tin Cup, we'd put our change in the other pocket and turn our visor around. If we were Pedro Cerrano, we'd look to Jobu for answers and search for a live chicken.

We need something, and that something arrives today. We have mixed research with feel and feelings with reaching. So we sat down and did a little studying. We crunched some numbers. We examined charts -- "Doctor. Doctor." -- and we tried to find that extra edge that we have been lacking.

Then it hit us. Vegas is good. How is Vegas so good? Well, if we knew that, then we'd be Vegas, which would be sweet to be the personification of Vegas, as long as it's not being Celine Dion with that white Tiger from those happy magical fellows in an Elvis jumpsuit driving a 1982 Caddie. Although an '82 Caddie would be awesome. Where were we?

Oh yes, thinking like Vegas. Studying the numbers, you can get an idea who Vegas likes on a select few games. Here's how: The point spreads posted on each game are frequently viewed as Vegas' best guess of the differential in the final score. While Vegas has an uncanny ability to be close to that more times than not, the point spread is actually Vegas putting a number out there in an effort to get the betting public to put their entertainment equally on each side. That's lesson one.

Lesson two today is there are subtle way to find some teams that Vegas wants the public to back. If there is unnatural line movement -- if Team A is favored by 7 and the public is all over Team A but the line drops to Team A minus 6, then Vegas wants all of the public money on Team A -- then we should capitalize on that when possible.

With that knowledge, we turn to the week. We're not ready to completely embrace this reasoning across the board. (Side note: If you want to study this experiment, here are the games and the teams Vegas likes this week, meaning that despite the money wagered, the line has skewed to the point that the inference is the sharks like the following teams: Pitt minus-1 over Virginia Tech; Western Michigan plus-1.5 over Bowling Green; Kent State plus-3.5 over Army; Arizona State plus-3 over Stanford; Oregon minus-20 over Washington; California plus-7 over UCLA; West Virginia plus-8 over Baylor; Florida minus-6 over Missouri; Oklahoma State plus-9 over TCU).

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

This season: 22-24 against the spread overall

Temple plus-7.5 over Houston: Houston has quarterback issues. Temple has been better than most have expected. Normally, we'd shy from Temple against a team from Texas, but this Temple team is salty and experienced. We like experienced. And salty.

Northern Illinois minus-10 over Miami (Ohio): We have long held a belief that you can find edges betting against teams every bit as much as you can betting on teams. This fits, and as our old family friend from Holland named Margot says (and everyone has that family friend from another country who routinely butchers familiar American expressions), "If the shoe fits, take it home from the store."

Cincinnati minus-13 over SMU: Another of the few consistent things we have found this year is going against SMU. SMU's Mustangs are the Tim Duncan of stickiness in that you know what you've got, you pencil it in and expect 19 and 12 and hitting close to 70 percent. In fact, SMU will likely be in here all year. We love you, Smoo.

Boise State minus-16 over Fresno State: Two things here. (1) Fresno State has played each of the season's first seven weeks and is one of 11 teams nationally that will play again this week. That leads to aches and bruises and fatigue. (2) Boise is physical and scores. Plus, Boise State is coming off a bye and is at home. Well, that's three things, which is even better, right?

South Florida minus-2 over Tulsa: Tulsa has been disappointingly bad, losing five straight. South Florida has more talent, and as for a 2-4 Bulls team being a road favorite, well, those four losses are to two Big Ten teams, an ACC foe and East Carolina.

Alabama minus-11 over Texas A&M: Bama has been awful against the number -- going 1-8 against the spread dating back to the Mississippi State game last year. Bama was dreadful offensively last week against an Arkansas team that played each of these teams to knock-down slugfests. The number may seem high for an Alabama offense that has scored 31 points in its last two SEC games, but this is the Vegas darling we are going with from the list above. According to reports, almost 80 percent of the public's money has been on Texas A&M so far, yet the line actually is going up. That means that Vegas likes the Tide this week, and if you can figure out what Vegas likes, well, congrats.

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