TENNESSEE (6-4, 3-3 SEC) AT MISSOURI (5-5, 1-5)
7:15 p.m. * Faurot Field, Columbia, Mo. * ESPN2/106.5 FM
THE MATCHUP
Why is Missouri 5-5 despite having one of the SEC's top defenses? Look no further than an offense that's been anemic. The Tigers are last in the conference in scoring (15.2 ppg) and total offense (297.7 ypg).
Since a 24-10 win against South Carolina, Missouri's scored three touchdowns in five games. Two of those scores came against BYU last week, though one was set up by a fumble. Freshman quarterback Drew Lock had 244 yards passing against the Cougars, far better than his 129-yard average the previous five games.
"No question he's getting better," defensive coordinator John Jancek said. "You can see he's becoming more comfortable. I think they're doing some things to make his reads a little easier, and I see him making progress."
Expect Tennessee to play the run and force Lock and his receivers to make plays in the passing game.
ONE TO WATCH
At 887 rushing yards on the season, Jalen Hurd is 12 yards from matching his freshman season total and within range of a 1,000-yard season, but Tennessee probably needs to get his running mate Alvin Kamara double-digit touches in this game.
He's averaging 6.9 yards per carry and 7.9 yards per carry with 10 total touchdowns, and the Vols will need some big plays against a Missouri defense that doesn't give up many yards or points. Kamara has been his best with the ball on the edge on sweeps, screens and swing passes, and his speed could give Missouri trouble.
"Alvin is a skilled player," offensive coordinator Mike DeBord said. "He's got great quickness to be able to run the ball inside, and when he gets the ball on the outside, he's got great speed. He's had a lot of yards out on the perimeter, and when he gets the ball out there, he's really good."
IN THE END
After escaping against South Carolina and sleepwalking against North Texas, Tennessee enters what should be an electric and emotional atmosphere at Missouri for 15th-year coach Gary Pinkel's final home game.
The Tigers will be inspired, but the Vols have played pretty well on the road, losing narrowly at Florida and Alabama and hammering hapless Kentucky. Missouri's defense is really good, but the numbers may be inflated by playing five teams ranked 87th or worse nationally in total offense.
The highest-ranked offense the Tigers faced was Mississippi State (40th), which scored 31 points and had 430 yards. Tennessee ranks 49th, so the Vols should be able to score enough points and let the defense handle the rest. Tennessee is the better team, but the Vols have to coach and play like it.
PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 24, MISSOURI 10