TENNESSEE (3-4, 1-3 SEC) AT KENTUCKY (4-3, 2-3)
Tennessee's Jalen Hurd (1) pushes through the Kentucky defense during their game at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014.When: 7:30 p.m.
Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, Ky.
TV/Radio: SEC Network/106.5 FM
THE MATCHUP
Can Tennessee's defensive line duplicate the effort it produced in Tuscaloosa last Saturday? The Volunteers entered that game with nine sacks in six games and had just one tackle for loss against Georgia, but they had five sacks and 10 tackles for loss against the Crimson Tide. The defensive line, which used an eight-player rotation, looked like it did last season.
Now the Vols get a Kentucky offensive line, a unit starting three sophomores, that's allowed 20 sacks, the second-most in the SEC. A good performance up front could negate what advantage the Wildcats, who are ranked fifth in the SEC in passing yards (253.1 ypg) and third in the conference with 29 completions of 20-plus yards, have against Tennessee's secondary, which will include a new starter in Justin Martin.
If the Vols can pressure Kentucky QB Patrick Towles and rattle him early, they could force some turnovers. Towles has more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (8) this season.
UT's Aaron Medley kicks in the game against UTC on Oct. 11, 2014, at Neyland Stadium.ONE TO WATCH
Aaron Medley took more heat than he should have for his role in the loss to Alabama. After all, 51-yard field goals are automatic only in the NFL. The sophomore's three misses did highlight his struggles this season and on longer field goals.
Medley is 9-of-17 on field goals this season, and he's 1-of-7 this season and 2-of-13 in his career on kicks of 40 or more yards. His struggles are odd given the success Tennessee kickers have had under Butch Jones. The third-year coach reiterated his confidence in Medley this week and dismissed any notion the Vols would change kickers.
"He's been trying to over-swing (on long field goals)," Jones said. "His stride has been lengthened with deeper kicks. We're really tried to go back and re-define the fundamentals. I see a very determined individual. He's had a very good week."
How confident Jones truly is in his kicker won't show until the Vols face a fourth down in field goal range and have a decision to kick it or go for it.
Tennessee running back Rajion Neal (20) takes the handoff from quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) in their NCAA football game against Kentucky in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 30, 2013. Tennessee won 27-14.IN THE END
Tennessee's had five games decided by seven points or less. Kentucky's had six games decided by eight points or less. Thus the 111th meeting between the two border rivals - and first not in November since 1944 - should be close, right?
Since the Wildcats snapped a 26-game losing streak in the series in 2011, Tennessee's won by 20, 13 and 34 points. Kentucky needed fourth-quarter heroics to beat Louisiana-Lafayette and Eastern Kentucky, couldn't beat underachieving Auburn at home and was hammered at Mississippi State last week.
Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott, a bigger, better-passing version of Tennessee's Josh Dobbs, piled up 465 yards and six touchdowns against Kentucky. In two starts against the Wildcats, Dobbs accounted for 596 yards and seven touchdowns.
Underdogs the past two weeks, the Vols are favorites again and may be in that role the rest of the season. Does that change how they coach and play?
PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 35, KENTUCKY 21