UT quarterback Josh Dobbs hands the ball off in the game against Western Carolina on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.TENNESSEE (2-1, 0-0 SEC) AT FLORIDA (3-0, 1-0)
3:30 p.m. * Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla. * CBS/106.5 FM
THE MATCHUP
Given the offenses and defenses of both teams, this matchup figures to be low-scoring. Florida scored 14 points at Kentucky last week, and Tennessee managed 17 in regulation against Oklahoma, which has a defense similar to Florida's. Thus special teams, from field goal kicking to field position, could play a big role in the outcome. Typically it's been Florida making those plays, and Antonio Calloway and Brandon Powell have both have had big returns this season. Tennessee's return game is the biggest reason for the disparity in the Vols' FBS ranks in scoring (13th) and total offense (54th), and the Vols' Trevor Daniel leads the nation in punting. Tennessee's average starting field position in its three games were its own 39-, 33- and 42-yard lines, and Florida's average in its three games is it own 35. The team that can continue that trend and take advantage of those opportunities when they arise very well may win what could be a defensive struggle.
ONE TO WATCH
The list of Tennessee quarterbacks with a win at Florida's Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, better known as "The Swamp," on their career resume is very short - the Vols' five wins in 17 visits there came in 1953, 1955, 1971, 2001 and 2003 - but Josh Dobbs can join the exclusive club and silence some detractors with a victory today. The problem is the Gators have the kind of defense that Dobbs has been unable to solve since he took over midway through last season. Against Missouri last season and Oklahoma two weeks ago - the two best defenses he's faced - Dobbs managed 208 and 137 yards of offense and only 25 rushing yards. As much as Tennessee needs Dobbs to have a great game throwing the ball against a strong Florida secondary, the Vols also need Dobbs to return to being a threat when he runs. Tennessee needs to rely on Jalen Hurd heavily today, but Dobbs will have to play well for the Vols to win Gainesville for the first time in 12 years.
Tennessee coach Butch Jones walks off the field following their 10-9 loss to Florida in an NCAA college football game at Neyland Stadium, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Knoxville News Sentinel, Michael Patrick) IN THE END
Tennessee and Butch Jones badly need to win this game. The murmuring caused by the Vols coughing up the Oklahoma game will only grow louder if the Vols can't beat Florida. Under first-year coach Jim McElwain, the Gators are trying to dig their way out from the hole the program fell into the final two years of Will Muschamp's tenure. Florida again is stout on defense, but the Vols are the better team in this matchup. That's not always been the case during their decade-long losing streak in the series. Still, it's hard to pick Tennessee to beat Florida until it actually happens. The Vols were the pick in this spot in 2012 and 2014. They won't be again until the streak is snapped.
PREDICTION: FLORIDA 17, TENNESSEE 16
Contact Patrick Brown at pbrown@timesfreepress.com.