TENNESSEE TARGETS
Here’s a look at the prospects Tennessee could land to finish out its 2016 class:NIGEL WARRIOR› Top competition: Auburn› Announcement time: 8 a.m.› Final forecast: The Vols are the favorites to land the four-star defensive back, who is the son of former Tennessee defensive back Dale Carter. Warrior took official visits to LSU, Alabama and Auburn in January before finishing up his SEC tour in Knoxville.JONATHAN KONGBO› Top competition: Ole Miss, Florida State and Southern California› Announcement time: 10 a.m.› Final forecast: Where the junior college defensive end winds up is a coin flip, as all four finalists feel good about their chances. Kongbo, who originally committed to the Vols, spoke with Tennessee defensive end Derek Barnett on Monday, a good sign for the Vols. If they can outlast a late push from Ole Miss, they should land the talented pass-rusher.DERRICK BROWN› Top competition: Auburn› Announcement time: 3 p.m.› Final forecast: The five-star defensive tackle took his final official visit to Knoxville last weekend, but did the Vols do enough to overcome Auburn? Tennessee’s track record in head-to-head recruiting battles with the Tigers is poor, particularly with defensive linemen. Do Gabe Wright, Davonte Lambert and Michael Goggans ring a bell? Brown is Tennessee’s only hope for a high school defensive lineman in this class.LANDON DICKERSON› Top competition: Florida State and Alabama› Announcement time: Noon› Final forecast: The touted offensive lineman from North Carolina was in Knoxville this past weekend, but it’s unlikely he’ll wind up at Tennessee. The Vols have only three or four spots remaining, and some other prospects are higher on the board. Should the Vols miss on any of their top targets, including Dickerson, wide receiver Latrell Williams and running back Zack Moss are potential options.LATRELL WILLIAMS› Top competition: Miami› Announcement time: TBA› Final forecast: Tennessee hosted the speedy wide receiver from Florida during the penultimate weekend of official visits and made an impression on the Miami commitment. The chances Williams winds up signing with Tennessee depend on whether the Vols have or can make room for him if he wants to join the class.
KNOXVILLE - For most of this recruiting cycle, Tennessee's best football season in eight years hadn't produced continued momentum.
The Volunteers may be on the verge of changing that.
Tennessee's quest for a strong finish to its 2016 recruiting class got off to a good start Tuesday night when four-star athlete Tyler Byrd flipped his commitment from Miami to the Vols on the eve of national signing day.
Whether he winds up playing cornerback or wide receiver, Byrd has the kind of playmaking ability that will make him one of the best additions in Tennessee's class.
Tennessee, which finished the 2015 season ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 2007, was on the fringes of the top 25 in the recruiting rankings before Byrd's commitment. If the Vols can land any combination of Nigel Warrior, Jonathan Kongbo or Derrick Brown - there are 13 combined stars up for grabs in that trio - their drop from back-to-back top-five classes won't be very far.
"The upside for Tennessee is a top-10 class, and that's if everything goes according to plan on signing day," Barton Simmons, the director of scouting for 247Sports.com, said Tuesday.
"Tennessee has as much upward mobility as just about anybody in the country. They've got some really elite players that they've got a really good shot at (landing). I think a top-10 class, if all goes well, is in sight, but maybe not realistic.
"Rarely does everything go according to plan on signing day, and everyone else has got some guys they're going to land as well. Maybe right outside that top 10 or top 15 would be a realistic goal for Tennessee."
Byrd's commitment bumped Tennessee from 27th to 22nd in the 247Sports class rankings and from 24th to 18th in the rankings on Rivals, and that rise could continue if more big-time prospects elect to sign today.
Despite limited success on the field in 2013 and 2014, the Vols still were able to land classes of 30-plus players that finished ranked in the top five by multiple recruiting services in 2014 and 2015. After the last two oversized classes, the 2016 haul always was going to be smaller, and Tennessee has 13 current commitments in addition to four early enrollees.
Quantity plays a part in the formula for how the recruiting services rank classes.
"Part of it is that they didn't quite have the momentum that was built from the previous two classes," Simmons said.
"And a big reason that they were able to build that momentum in the previous classes was really talented in-state crops and some really good legacy commits that jumped on board early. When you've got a really good class in the fold early that's out recruiting for you, that is a huge advantage in building and really accelerating a recruiting process.
"With this class, it was a little bit weaker year in the state of Tennessee. They weren't able to necessarily to lock in those huge national names early on in the process, with maybe the one exception being the quarterback in (Jarrett) Guarantano.
"What they did during the fall and what they have coming back is a big reason why they are able to continue to push here down the homestretch for the names they're in the mix with."
According to Rivals, nine of Tennessee's 18 commitments are four-star prospects, and Guarantano (No. 37), Byrd (75), enrolled cornerback Marquill Osborne (79) and athlete Marquez Callaway (95) are top-100 players.
With improved depth, Tennessee could afford to take prospects with long-term upside. Offensive line commitments Nathan Niehaus and Marcus Tatum each weighs around 260 pounds, and tight end Devante Brooks is coming off two ACL injuries. Running back Carlin Fils-aime, wide receiver Corey Henderson and tight end Austin Pope could be three-star sleepers.
After having its class nearly entirely intact heading into the past two Februarys, Tennessee could experience some signing-day drama with some high-profile prospects set to announce their decisions.
"None of those guys are locks," Simmons said, "and that's what makes it tough to confidently say Tennessee's going to be a top-10 class. But they've got a good shot at all of them. I think that Tennessee lands at least two of those really elite targets.
"I like Tennessee's chances with Nigel Warrior. I like Tennessee's chances with Jonathan Kongbo. Tyler Byrd and Derrick Brown are probably the other two that they have the best shot at pulling into this class. If they can get those four, they've got a fantastic class and have closed really well down the stretch."
And one joined the Vols' fold Tuesday night.
Contact Patrick Brown at pbrown@timesfreepress.com.