NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
› Record: 18-2 (7-0 Atlantic Coast Conference)› AP ranking/RPI: 2/4› Best win: An 89-81 home victory over current No. 8 Maryland› Worst loss: 71-67 in November at Northern Iowa. The Panthers are only 10-11 for the season, but with UNC senior point guard and Iowa native Marcus Paige out that day with an injury, they were too tough for the nation’s preseason No. 1. Ironically, UNC is one of three No. 1 teams to lose inside the state of Iowa this season, the other two being Michigan State (at Iowa) and Oklahoma (at Iowa State).› Best player: Before this season began, Paige would have been the unanimous pick as Tar Heels MVP, but Brice Johnson has dramatically changed that, as witness his 39-point, 23-rebound game at Florida State on the first Monday in January. Averaging a double-double, he’s become UNC’s top talent.› Biggest weakness: The 3-point shot. Though Joel Berry II and Paige are known as serious 3-point threats, the team has hit just 30.6 percent of its 3s this season and far less than that (22.7 percent) in conference play. If someone can keep the Heels out of the paint in the NCAA tourney and the triples aren’t falling, UNC could be vulnerable.› Can be hoopin’ in Houston if: Paige, Berry and Justin Jackson can combine to hit 35 percent from the 3-point line and the defense stiffens a bit. Maybe the deepest offensive team in the country.› Coachspeak: “I think Coach (Roy Williams) has a fantastic club this year. … This is as good of a group as I think he’s had since I can remember. I think this group has a chance to be special and do some special things.” — UNC alum and UNC Greensboro coach Wes Miller after a 96-63 loss to the Tar Heels in late December.
Road to Final Four series
* Indiana suddenly good enough to win it all * Nothing silly about a Virginia run to Final Four * Buddy system could make Oklahoma an NCAA champion * Can No. 1 Villanova finish season as Top Cats? * Michigan State back on track for Final Four run * Texas A&M could become a March monster * Tar Heels good enough to win Williams his third NCAA title * Kansas once more has Final Four look in January
All you need to know about how good the North Carolina Tar Heels may become by the time March Madness rolls around can be found in the following quote from their coach, Roy Williams:
"I think we have some good parts," he said earlier this month. "We haven't shot the ball well. When we start shooting the ball and still get the offensive rebounds, we can be really good offensively."
What's scariest about that statement is that for all their so-called shooting woes, the Heels are the ninth highest scoring team in the country at 85.7 points per game and also have the ninth best scoring margin at 15.1. From facts such as those did Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams note after Sunday's 75-70 home loss to UNC, "They have really good players, really tall, really long, really athletic - multiple guys that will play a long time on TV."
How deep and talented are these Heels, who stand 18-2 overall and 7-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference for the first time since 2001? They have six players averaging double-figure scoring, led by 6-foot-10 senior forward Brice Johnson, who's averaging a double-double with 16.8 points and 10.2 rebounds. Nine players play 10 or more minutes a game and eight get on the court for 18 or more minutes. Only one of those - sophomore point guard Joel Berry 11 - plays 30 or more minutes. And they count on no freshmen, their top nine consisting of three seniors, three juniors and three sophomores.
"There's just so many of them coming at you that it's hard to stop them," Clemson coach Brad Brownell said after an 80-69 loss to the Heels earlier this month. "There's so many weapons. There's going to be two or three playing well most nights, because there's six or seven of them that can get 18 points."
Depth, talent and offensive efficiency have shaped the Carolina Way ever since the late Dean Smith took over the program in 1961. Ten years a Smith assistant before leaving for Kansas in the fall of 1988, Williams became the first coach in NCAA history to win at least 350 games at two schools when the Tar Heels beat Virginia Tech, his 350th UNC win in less than 13 full seasons nicely joining the 418 he won in 15 seasons at KU.
But this team - ranked No. 1 in the preseason and back at No. 1 this week in the coaches' poll though No. 2 in the AP list - could become one of Williams' best. And he's already won two NCAA titles at UNC (2005 and 2009).
Or as N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried said after a recent loss to the Heels: "This is a really good basketball team this year that Roy has. They're deep. They can score."
Especially now that senior guard Marcus Paige is rounding into form after missing the first six games with a broken bone in his right, nonshooting hand.
Arguably the team's best player the past two seasons, Paige has been inconsistent since his return, scoring as many as 30 points at Florida State but as few as two against Wake Forest. Yet in his first game back against current No. 8 Maryland, Paige went for 20 points, hit four of five 3-pointers, dished out five assists and committed only one turnover in 34 minutes of court time.
Following that return, Berry said of his backcourt mate: "Everyone is trying to key in on him, and it opens up for us. Marcus is so poised in late situations that it just helps all of us. That's what a leader does."
Added Williams: "I like my team. I like it a lot better when No. 5 (Paige) is out there."
That doesn't mean Williams is terribly pleased with the Heels at the moment, especially when they must still play Duke twice, as well as traveling to Louisville, Notre Dame, N.C. State and Virginia over the final five weeks of the season.
Their 3-point shooting in conference play having fallen to 22.7 percent despite facing the easiest part of their league schedule, their overall shooting dipping below 40 percent for the third straight game, Williams said Sunday, "I was not concerned, but now I can be concerned because three games in a row is enough. You've got to be able to step up and make some shots."
He's right, of course. When one loss knocks you out of the NCAA tournament, one bad shooting game can prematurely end the best of seasons. Nor, because of its back-ended schedule, can anyone truly know just how good UNC is at the moment. That won't be determined until February fades to March and Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame and Virginia have either humbled the Tar Heels, elevated them to Final Four favorites or placed them somewhere in between.
But after watching his Seminoles lose by 16 at home to UNC, Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton said, "We lost to a team tonight that I thought had just a little too much firepower for us."
Expect Hamilton to be far from the last coach to feel that way as March approaches and the Tar Heels regain their shooting touch.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com.