We enter the championship weekend with another round of picks, and as always these are for entertainment purposes only.
That said, time is short, and compared to previous years, we are low on our expected return of entertainment.
The year in college picks has been a wild ride, not unlike Auburn's hills-and-valleys-filled trek. So it goes.
We've tried a variety of options and have managed to stay right above .500 with a few simple rules. We need to remember these for next year, and maybe it's time to rewrite the guidelines. In truth, and this will be especially entertaining to follow this weekend, style points are going to matter more than ever since the college football committee rewards sizzle more than substance.
That means bigger point spreads for heavy favorites in the championship mix. Take TCU this weekend, for example. The Horned Frogs need to win impressively against an overmatched Iowa State team, so Vegas has pushed that number five points to TCU minus-35 in most circles. Crazy, right?
So let's tweak our guidelines, shall we? (Note: We'll put this in later -- short on time today.)
• 1. Spreads that look too be to true are. This is universal and, yes, we violate it way too often.
• 2. Vegas builds fancy buildings and neighborhood entertainment brokers drive nice cars, so if the public is overwhelming on one wise, take the other. Trust us on this.
• 3. Picking losers is every bit as entertaining as picking winners. Find stinky teams and enjoy the sweet and sour smell of success.
• 4. Don't take a single-digit underdog unless you think it can win. This is important because the math never works, and those teams are underdogs for a reason.
• 5. Find a good thing and ride it. There always are five to eight teams that are better than the public and Vegas think, so they exploit those low expectations.
So that's the top five now, and where we are. Let's be entertained.
Last week: 8-6 against the spread
This year: 47-44-1 against the spread
Since the start of 2011: 258-154-6 against the spread.
• Cincinnati minus-7 over Houston. We have had the most success this year picking Georgia Southern, picking against SMU (we love you, Smoo) and riding Cincy. Hello, rule 5. Thanks, Tommy Tuberville, for being the guy who is that guy. Cincy quarterback Gunner was less than effective last week, but that tempers this line to a very comfortable price. Houston pounded SMU (still love you, Smoo), and that means little. Yes, please.
• Temple minus-3 over Tulane. Tulane stinks. Temple has turned a 4-1 start into a 5-6 record and needs this one to be bowl-eligible. The second-half slide has coincided with a tougher schedule. Did we mention that Tulane stinks? Hello, rule No. 3.
• Marshall-Louisiana Tech over the 68. The public is riding La. Tech and the points -- almost 94 percent of the betting public is on the Bulldogs plus-12 -- so that makes following Rule No. 2 very tempting. Still, with big-bowl dreams dashed, Marshall now has to refocus. And the one thing that is clearly in focus is that each of these teams scores. A lot. Like Fonzie-level scoring. Ayyyyyeee. Take out losses to Oklahoma and Auburn, and La. Tech is averaging better than 43 points per game. Marshall is averaging better than 46 per game.
• Northern Illinois minus-6.5 over Bowling Green. Yes, there's a little bit of having to ignore Rule No. 1 here, but Northern Illinois proved us wrong last week and has fashioned a program that is the class of the MAC. That's especially important when your team knows it and even more when the other team knows it.
• Baylor-Kansas State over the 67. A classic sizzle-moment here as Baylor needs to win and do it with some style. We'd lean toward taking the Bears minus-9, too, but a late backdoor cover -- and the presence of KSU coach Bill Snyder -- lead us to over the total.
• Georgia Tech plus-4 over Florida State. Check No. 4 above, and, yes, we believe Tech is going to win the game. And credit goes to Sam B., a regular caller and emailer, who called the Tech-over-Georgia upset right after Halloween. Tip of the visor to you, Sam, and to these Yellow Jackets, who are physical and purposeful and resilient.
• Ohio State plus-4 over Wisconsin. Ohio State is better at every position save tailback. Yes, losing quarterback J.T. Barrett likely flipped this line by as many as 10 points -- with Barrett, who broke his ankle last week, the Buckeyes are at least a 6-point favorite -- and in normal circumstances, that would be magnified. These are not normal circumstances, however. This is the Big Ten title game, and Urban Meyer has three great motivation ploys to get the most from his team. He can play the "No one believes in you" card. He can play the "Do it for your hurt quarterbacks" card. And he can play the "Remember last year" card, when the Buckeyes gagged under the pressure on this same stage. The math here makes it one-sided: Meyer + points + motivation + better overall talent > Melvin Gordon + OSU third-string quarterback. Sometimes it's easier when you write out the equation.
• Fresno State plus-21 over Boise State. The Broncos figure to win at home in the Mountain West title game. But we have previous evidence, as these teams met during the regular season at the same venue -- a 37-27 Boise win in October. Fresno State has won its last three and has averaged 35 points a game in that stretch. A Fresno State offense that has found a stride and a Boise State team just needing a win makes the three-touchdown spread too much.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com and follow him on Twitter at @jgreesontfp. Listen to Jay and David Paschall on Press Row every weekday from 3-6 on ESPN 105.1 FM and timesfreepress.com.