Most times when an NFL player appeals an NFL decision, the odds are very slim he will get anything overturned.
In fact, we'd peg him somewhere between a PowerBall winner and Lloyd Christmas' chances with Lauren Holley's character in "Dumb and Dumber." Yes, we're saying there's a chance?
That's most of the time, and the reasoning is simple.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell hands out the punishment and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell hears the appeal, and then NFL commissioner Roger Goodell rules on that appeal.
And a guy as stubborn and headstrong as Goodell, who directs the largest sports league/TV programming organization/pop culture entity in this country, does not admit to being wrong very often.
That's most of the time, like in almost all of the time, as in almost every other case except for this one. Yes, Goodell excused himself in the BountyGate controversy with the New Orleans Saints, but that's the exception to the rule.
This whole DeflateGate thing is different, though. It's a different headache entirely because this case had the entire country talking about the proper air pressure of Tom Brady's footballs and the ramifications from the model franchise of the last 15 years.
Ah, DeflateGate, the sports controversy as interesting as your Uncle Gary at Thanksgiving. We all know Uncle Gary, God bless him, as the guy who starts talking before everyone fades into a nap and is still talking when everyone wakes up an hour later.
Like Gary, we all are ready for DeflateGate to go away. All of us, including Goodell. (Side note: If there's an eternal optimist out there, the one good thing about DeflateGate is that we all now know that PSI is a measuring of air pressure rather than maybe a sports magazine in Poland or a crime show in Portland.)
In fact, we'd be stunned if Goodell did not leak some ancillary rule change - now that the extra point has been addressed, he'll have to find a new distraction - to try to change the narrative.
More times than not, though, Goodell would drop the hammer on an appeal like this. The scene is all-too-familiar during his reign, which has jumped NFL revenues close to $10 billion and made the league the most watched TV show on five different networks.
Player A or Team Z disagrees with Goodell. He'd give them as much time as they'd like and he'd go into his room, break for lunch or for the day, depending on how long the appeal took, then return and say plainly, "Appeal denied. Thanks for your time."
This appeal, which Brady and Co. presented to Goodell earlier this week, though, could be different. By all accounts Brady was very direct and charismatic and persuasive, but the political differences present a true danger for the internal workings of the league.
There are a lot of folks who believe New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, a longtime friend and supporter of Goodell's, made a wink-wink agreement with the league office when the Patriots withdrew their appeal on this matter. A team appeal - especially from one as powerful as the Patriots - on penalties that ranged from a first-round draft pick to a seven-figure fine would be a much more messy ordeal than a player appeal, and no one from the top down wanted that to happen.
So there are growing whispers that Kraft walked away, and for that graceful exit, Brady's appeal of his four-game suspension may get a much kinder eye than most others.
Hey, back-room deals and side agreements happen every day in all walks of business.
But all walks of business do not involve the most popular sport in America and are not in an industry that has to be perceived first and foremost as operating on a level playing field for all involved. And that perception is as important from the inside as it is from the public's point of view.
If the Chiefs or the Texans or the Bucs believe the Patriots are getting extra benefits - either on the field or from the league's brass - then there's a chance this could be a Titanic-type iceberg for the highly profitable Goodell era.
Plus, to deny that there will be racial overtones in this matter is silly. All of the recent high-profile suspensions for violent offenses have been for black players, and Goodell has held firm on all of his rulings. But Brady is the face of the league and that face is white, and if his suspension is cut in half, well, the racial card will get played from some circles for sure.
And while Brady's suspension was for an act that is nowhere nearly as dangerous or serious or disgusting as domestic assault, DeflateGate certainly could be seen as purposefully cheating, and that should be viewed with the utmost seriousness in the NFL's eyes.
So Goodell, who makes somewhere between $40 million and $50 million a year, heard the appeal Tuesday and the decision will be on the horizon. A quick decision is not likely, but the timetable is not as important as the outcome.
In a lot of ways, the pressure from the outside eyes watching this are way more important than the pressure of those January footballs.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com. Read his online column "The 5-at-10" weekdays starting at 10 a.m. at timesfreepress.com.