Fab 4 picks
It's been a while, but we feel it's important to offer a couple of familiar reminders of the Fab 4 picks.
First, as always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only. Secondly, past performance is not a guarantee of future entertainment gains. We have been picking at least four college football games against the spread on Thursdays since the start of the 2011 season.
We have been pretty good. Entering this season we were 284-175-6 picking college games against the spread. That's almost 62 percent, and we were pretty mediocre last year.
After a 5-2 mark last week we're sneaking toward our goal of 60 percent again. Let's face it, picking games against the spread is a tough errand for a multitude of reasons.
Take last week for example.
We've had some entertainment success picking over/unders this season (that's a number Vegas sets as the mark of total points scored in a game and you can pick over or under the total). We did not pick the over/under in the Alabama-LSU game, but it's a primes example of how thin the margin is between entertaining and disappointing.
OK, the closing total for the Tide-Tigers was 46.5. With roughly 10 minutes left in the game, LSU scored a TD to make it 30-16 with the point after pending. The kick was blocked and Alabama was able to drain the rest of the clock.
If you had the under, that's highly entertaining. The under? Not so much.
With that, let's see if we can't do a little song and dance and entertain some folks.
Fab 4 picks
Baylor minus-2.5 over Oklahoma. The public is screaming that Oklahoma is the most complete team in the Big 12. OK. When the public starts screaming, Vegas starts salivating. This line has fallen from an opening-bell number of Baylor minus-7. All we can tell you is this (and don't go getting spoiled by all this research): Baylor has won 20 straight home games by more than 25 points per game, and the only one that was as close as three was a 61-58 win over TCU last year. Maybe the public is right about OU, but the numbers and Vegas back the Bears. And when looking for entertainment, remember that math is your friend.
TCU minus-44 over Kansas. Fact: TCU laid an egg last week that cost it a shot at being the in playoff. Fact: Trevone Boykin had his worst game of his career. Fact: The Horned Frogs are hacked off. Fact: Kansas is on the short list of worst power-five conference teams in the last decade and is destined for 0-12. Fact: Kansas has allowed more than 40 points in six of its nine losses. This line could be 55 and TCU is still the pick.
Kentucky-Vandy under 40. What do we search for? Well, other than entertainment, that is? We search for things in the entertainment world you can trust. Like a steadfast rule like "Do not eat yellow snow" or a betting principle of "If a spread looks too good to be true, it normally is." Well, the astute entertainment hunter has made a mint on Vandy and the total this year. The Commodores are salty defensively. This is a fact. Also a fact: If you bet the under in Vandy games this year you are 8-0-1 and likely ranked in the top four of the college football playoff rankings.
Florida-South Carolina under 46.5. See a trend developing here. Whether it's great defenses, bad quarterback play or a mix of some of each, there are a collection of SEC teams that are the anti-dopplegangers of their Big 12 counterparts.
Alabama-Mississippi State under 52. This SEC under pick is a little bit different. This is balancing the simple factors of a) Alabama's defensive line would arguably rank in the top five of the NFC; b) after playing LSU (a demanding chore physically and emotionally), the Tide face a tough test on the road that will force them to be a little more conservative and rely on their greatest strength up front; and c) Mississippi State's defense is statistically every bit the match of Alabama's. Here's a vote that the first team to 20 wins.
BYU minus-4.5 over Missouri. Is there a worse match-up coming off the off-the-field drama for Missouri. Unless you have been under a rock somewhere on the third moon of Endor, the story lines out of Missouri this week have been about the football team and nothing about football. Their role in the protests and the eventual ouster of the school president have made international news. Now, they get the nothing-but-business BYU Cougars in a neutral site game.
Georgia Southern minus-6.5 over Troy. A hungry Georgia Southern bunch still smarting from a disappointing effort against App State two weeks ago? Yes please. The talent difference here screams more than a touchdown - it's closer to two scores, in fact - and that means plenty.
Last week against the spread: 5-2 (71.4 percent)
This season against the spread: 37-26 (58.7 percent)
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SEC logoSEC items of interest
1. Alabama handling Dak Prescott. Alabama goes on the road for a challenging test against Dan Mullen and the league's most consistently overachieving program. Mullen chuckled when his team was picked seventh in the west - again - at SEC media days. And he's getting the last laugh. Does Alabama have more talent and depth? Sure it does. But expect this one to be close. First Vegas has it right around a an 8-point line, which is a lot of respect for the Bulldogs. Secondly, Alabama has failed to cover the spread in each of the last four years the week after playing LSU. Buckle up.
2. Deep South's Oldest (and this year most disappointing) Rivalry. At 55-55-8, the series between Georgia and Auburn could not be closer. This year, they even bring a matching level of disappointment mixed with a fair balance of "What if?" For Georgia, it's what if Nick Chubb did get hurt? For Auburn, the what is are varied and numerous, from what if Carl Lawson and Jovon Robinson didn't get hurt or what if Duke Williams could control his temper or the myriad of questions surrounding the pysche of Jeremy Johnson? Either way, in addition to the bad blood of this rivalry, the winner takes a large step of avoiding Memphis or Shreveport.
3. Slugfest in Death Valley. Arkansas and LSU are two of the more physical teams in the league. They each enter after a crazy donnybrook last week. The two questions here are, first, can Leonard Fournette find his stride after being derailed by Alabama's dominating front seven. (Here's a hunch that Fournette saw Reggie Ragland in his dreams this week.) The second question is can the Arkansas offense continue to dazzle. Don't look now, but Brandon Allen may be the league's best NFL quarterback prospect.
4. Tennessee becoming bowl eligible. UT's record of strong November reigns will continue. Saturday's opponent - North Texas - may be the worst FBS team in the country. Yes, coach Butch Jones will say it's the most important game of the season because it's the next game of the season. True, and not true. The only thing in doubt about this one is if UT will score enough to cover the monstrous 42-point spread. Still, postseason plans - and with a couple more chances to polish that resume ahead - Johnny Vols Fans should at least be grinning.
5. UK-Vandy. My opinion of Derek Mason has turned. Dude deserves another year in Nashville whether the Commodores win another game this year or not. Defensively, they are top-five in the league. Now picture if they had even an average offense - four of their losses this year were by single digits - and what that picture would look like. This game is also big for Mark Stoops, the Kentucky coach for the second consecutive year started quickly before hitting a major snag in the road. Last year the Wildcats started 5-1 and lost out. This year, the Wildcats started 4-1 and enter Saturday with a 4-5 mark. Of all the places in the SEC to start fast and fade as basketball starts, UK seems like the poetic choice, though.
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FILE - In this Aug. 29, 2015, file photo, Dallas Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy (76) talks with teammates on the sideline during a preseason NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings in Arlington, Texas. Several teams will be missing key players when the NFL season kicks off this weekend. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade, File) Hardy nastiness
OK, the disgust with the Greg Hardy situation is understandable.
The pictures that came out last week jumpstarted another round of the deplorable acts and aftershock of his domestic assault.
That was followed by a weekend apology on Twitter - you stay classy, Dallas - and more PR missteps through the weekend.
Now, this week, Hardy changes his Twitter message to discussions of innocent until proven guilty and telling people that they don't know the story. (Side note: Dallas coach Jason Garrett decided to act like an adult and told him to change the Twitter message. Finally.)
Now, word comes that Hardy and his attorney when meeting with Roger Goodel in an effort to get back into the league, went all old-school awfulness on every front.
Here's the story that includes the transcript of Hardy and Co.'s attempt to sway Rope-a-dope Roger http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25370745/greg-hardy-blames-ex-girlfriend-for-legal-woes-in-leaked-nfl-transcript.
Before we go any further, Hardy has been punished for his crime by the league. Pictures - as horrific as they are - should not change that fact. In fact, they can't change that fact, as witnessed by hardy winning his appeal against Goodell's original 10-game suspension, which was reduced to four.
That is part of the collective bargaining agreement, and at least in the regard to evidence, the fact that the NFL did not discover it until after the punishment was delivered is on them. (You certainly can debate whether the NFL wanted to see the photos or not, but the presence of the pictures now can't change what has already been decided and agreed upon.)
That said, the fact that Hardy used the caveman-esque tact of "She inflicted it on herself" and the reason the judge found him guilty is because she was part a women's rights group is staggering.
Wow. Simply, wow.
Is there a more hated man in sports right now than Greg Hardy?
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This and that
- OK, we have example No. 314 that dressing up in black face for Halloween is not the most prudent play for a celebrity. This year https://www.yahoo.com/celebrity/jason-aldean-wore-blackface-for-halloween-in-210804089.html it goes to country music star Jason Aldean, who went as Lil' Wayne.
- Well, this is enough to ruin your day Johnny Braves Fan. Apparently the Braves are listening to offers for Andrelton Simmons, the slick-fielding young shortstop. Just say no, Atlanta. If you are building around young arms - which is clearly the M.O. - Simmons and his defensive skills make a ton of sense.
- More Braves news: They signed A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year extension. Good. Dude had a fine year for a bad Braves team.
- Wow, so much for the championship hangover. The Warriors are 9-0 and talking about gunning for the Bulls' record of 72 regular-season winshttp://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25370214/warriors-still-perfect-as-talk-of-bulls-72-win-season-starts-heating-up. This just in: Steph Curry is pretty good.
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Today's question
OK, feel free to weigh in on any of the above. We're open today, so we'll be around and plan on playing.
We'll also ask about the mailbag.
Here's two questions for you:
Today's Jason Day's birthday. He had a pretty good year. If we set the over/under for Day's majors at 4.5 whatcha got?
Secondly, is Saturday the single biggest game in the Russ Huesman era at UTC? We can make a hard case that yes, considering the heights the Mocs have reached - and the fact that a loss could mean no playoffs - that this is right there with last year's playoff games in matter of import?