One of the great intangibles in the art of entertainment hunting is emotion.
Emotion of the players. Emotion of home-field advantage. The emotions - good and bad - of the pressure of being in the mix for a championship or having your season's goals dashed the previous week.
All of those scenarios play out this week, with a couple of added, out-of-the-ordinary scenarios. In Blacksburg, Va., and Columbia, Mo., long-time head coaches Frank Beamer and Gary Pinkel are stepping down, and Saturday will be the final home games for the coaches of Virginia Tech and Missouri, respectively. (Side note: Now that Beamer is retiring, the longest-tenured coaches at one school in college football will be Oklahoma's Bob Stoops and Iowa's Kirk Ferentz.)
How those emotions change teams and players and fans is unknown. But it's also an unknown variable for the guys in Escalades setting the lines in Vegas as well.
That's a rare gift, and one that may alter the spread, even if the emotion does not alter the moment.
Our view in matters of the heart, college football edition, is to trust what you know. Trust talent, and if you get bested by a lightning flash of fury that is a Hokie in a glass case of emotion, well, so be it. Pay your entertainment charge - plus the 10 percent, of course - and know you made the prudent play.
And remember, as Jimmy Dugan told us, there's no crying in baseball.
Vanderbilt against anyone under whatever it is. Regular entertainment chasers who frequent these parts know two things: There will be abstract movie quotes mixed in with our picks advice, and we take Vandy and the under and smile all the way to the entertainment collection window. If you are scoring at home - and if you are, good for you - the Commodores and the total have become the surest thing this side of Nick Saban blowing up at the media before Alabama plays an FCS foe. The under in Vandy games this year is 9-0-1. Yes, in the entertainment world, Vandy and the under is simply unstoppable. This week, the opponent is Texas A&M and the total is 42.5, but it could be the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers and the total could 12.5, and we'd lean to the under out of loyalty. Anchors (and scoring) Down, indeed.
Florida-Florida Atlantic under 48. The Gators are not the underlords (nice, right?) that Vandy has been, but it's close. Since the third week of the season, the under has hit in six of eight Florida games, and the lone exceptions are Florida scoring an improbable late touchdown against Tennessee (sorry, Johnny Vols Fans, too soon?) and the shining moment in the careers of erratic quarterbacks Treon and Brandon Harris (no relation) when LSU outslugged Florida. Plus, with Treon Harris struggling, the Gators have been limited offensively in their past three.
North Carolina minus-6 at Virginia Tech. Here's the emotional theory litmus test. Could Virginia Tech come out - cue "Enter Sandman" - and play like inspired warrior poets? Sure they could for Beamer. But Virginia Tech simply does not have the horses to run with UNC, which is led by quarterback Marquise Williams, who has almost 2,900 yards of total offense and has accounted for 25 touchdowns.
South Alabama plus-3 at Georgia State. We have some simple rules we try to follow regardless of the scenario. We look both ways before crossing. We believe that the future belongs to the folks willing to get their hands dirty. We agree with Oscar Wilde, who said: "Some people cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go." (And we always try to be in the former group.) We know that an entertainment line that looks too good to be true generally is, and anytime we can get points from the GSU Panthers, we consider that highly entertaining. And yes, we'd buy the half to be safe.
Ole Miss minus-4.5 over LSU. The emotional state of LSU will be telling. Tigers coach Les Miles is reportedly on the hot seat and could be coaching for his job in the last two weeks of the season. How the Tigers respond will speak volumes about how they feel about Coach Grass Chewer. That emotion is too tough to gauge. What's not tough to calculate is that Ole Miss had a bye last week after playing 10 straight weeks, and the Rebels may be as healthy as they have been all year. Plus, the Ole Miss defense has seen the game plan to frustrating LSU, and that's make anyone but Leonard Fournette beat them.
Navy minus-10 over Tulsa. This seems like a lot of points on the road - and we'd buy the half here to help against a backdoor cover - but Navy's show travels. Well. The Midshipmen are a matchup nightmare and have been one of the Fab 4 Picks favorite plays. They are 7-2 against the spread this year, and one of those losses was against Notre Dame. Tulsa is never going to be confused for Notre Dame. If you concur on this pick, we'd make the call now - this line figures to grow.
Georgia Tech minus-1 at Miami. Another tough matchup for the home underdog. As for all the indifference above about emotion, well, we'll stick with our approach. This pick is not about emotion (although the Hurricanes already being bowl eligible and without a head coach is a trying scenario), it's about math. According to vegasinsider.com, this line opened at Miami minus-1, and despite 58 percent of the wagers coming in on the Hurricanes, the line has flipped toward Tech. This screams that Vegas knows something, and when Vegas thinks it knows something, well, it normally does.
Last week against the spread: 4-3 (57.1 percent)
This season against the spread: 42-29 (59.2 percent)
SEC ITEMS OF INTEREST
1. LSU's response. Les Miles is under heat. There are whispers that he may be on the outs. (And yes, that's a scary proposition for all coaches everywhere, considering Miles has won 78 percent of his games and has a Natty. Man, if the Tigers run Miles, what does that mean for Mark Richt and a lot of the others who have had very good careers but are still not as accomplished as Miles? Wow.) Still, how the Tigers perform in Oxford will be interesting to watch.
2. Two best QBs in the SEC. Yep, who figured that would be a description of the Arkansas-Mississippi State matchup? Wow, if Arkansas could figure out how to start the way it finishes, it would be something. Still, the way the Hogs are rolling, this one could be very good all the way to the end. The big question here is if Mississippi State star wide receiver De'Runnya Wilson is healthy enough to play.
3. Fighting the cold, emotions. Missouri coach Gary Pinkel will coach his final home game this weekend, and it will be against the Tennessee Vols, who are looking for their first Southeastern Conference win over these Tigers. Offensively, Missouri is bad. Defensively, though, it is stout. How Tennessee handles the cold - a big factor for a road team, especially if UT starts slow - and the Tigers' early emotional punch will be telling.
4. Georgia Southern's Super Bowl. Almost every player on the Georgia Southern roster likely grew up dreaming of playing in Sanford Stadium in Athens. On Saturday, those Eagles get their chance. Another game that could be over early or could linger - and make the host Bulldogs quite nervous - if the visitor handles the moment early.
5. Can Auburn get bowl eligible? The Tigers are a 33-point favorite over visiting Idaho. Hard to see the surprisingly offensively challenged Tigers getting that many points. Auburn should win, but if the Tigers stumble, buckle up for a loud roar. (And not-so-quiet murmurs about coach Gus Malzahn's job security.) Granted, a win means a trip to Birmingham, Ala., or Shreveport, La. - a mighty fall for a team many expected to be in the mix to get in the playoff - but that would be better than a fall out of the postseason altogether.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him at Twitter.com/jgreesontfp.