Jay GreesonWe tried to take the emotion out of entertainment last week, and for the most part we did.
In fact, another 4-3 week - which, say if you put 100 entertainment credits on each pick, yields positive entertainment even with the surcharge of 10 percent on losses (just a guess, by the way) - dropped our season percentage slightly. Maybe that's a testament to our consistency.
Ah, consistency, it's a great characteristic in the inconsistent world of entertainment hunting.
Potential greatness last week was foiled with a back-door cover by Virginia Tech, which scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes to force overtime, and Georgia Tech losing its quarterback - and two of its nine fumbles - at an inspired Miami. (Side note: Some of that is on us for expecting consistency in the always unpredictable ACC.)
So we head into rivalry week looking for consistency. (Side note: Lines are from Wednesday.)
Oklahoma minus-4.5 at Oklahoma State. Here's the trouble of picking this game this early. If Baker Mayfield plays, this is a great play. He has been cleared to practice after passing the concussion protocols, so there's that. Without Mayfield, though, the Sooners are a stagnant offense. Yes, it's a rivalry game, but the Sooners have more to play for than emotion and have way more defensively. And defensive skills lead to more consistent showings.
Ole Miss minus-1 at Mississippi State. Other than at quarterback, the Rebels are better at almost every position. And the difference between Chad Kelly and Dak Prescott is not as vast as most people think. Yes, crazy things happen in rivalry games, but all you can trust is what you think you know. And we believe Ole Miss has more talent.
Hawaii over Louisiana-Monroe. The line is even and the interest is nonexistent considering these teams are a combined 3-20 and each is on a nine-game losing streak. But here's what we know. Both of Hawaii's wins were at home. Louisiana-Monroe will have to travel roughly 270 miles from Monroe Regional Airport (or worse yet by bus) to New Orleans to fly almost 10 hours to Honolulu. And all of this during the Thanksgiving holidays, and here's saying the Warhawks are not going first class or charter, but who knows? Either way it's serious travel time for a Saturday game that kicks off at what will feel like 10 p.m. to the Louisiana-Monroe players. Yes, please.
Toledo minus-7 over Western Michigan. This side of the Vandy under, Navy and UCF, the most consistent play this entertainment season has been the favorites in the MAC. Toledo (8-2 against the spread), Bowling Green (9-3 against the spread) and normally Northern Illinois (8-3-1 after a loss Tuesday night against the spread) have been very reliable. Add to the fact that Toledo has Phillip Ely, the former Alabama player, at quarterback and the motivation of knowing a win secures the MAC West title. Buy the half to be safe, and enjoy this one with a turkey sammich.
BYU minus-3 at Utah State. BYU's Cougars have been erratic at times, but their three losses this year are to UCLA and Michigan and in the emotional trap game that was Missouri after the protests. The line is skewed because Utah State is perfect at home, but the Utes will not enjoy their normal altitude advantage against a BYU team comfortable at those heights. Buy the half, of course, and back the better side.
Navy plus-2 over Houston. The second most consistent play in college football this year is Navy, which is 9-1 overall and 8-2 against the spread. Houston had its unbeaten dreams dashed last week at UConn, and now the Cougars' reward is a motivated and efficient Navy offense that has shredded foes. Navy is averaging more than 348 rushing yards and 38 points per game. Houston has a top-15 rush defense nationally, but a big part of that success was the Houston offense sprinting to large leads in the first eight games of the season. And, hey, if we are hunting for consistent entertainment, we have to dance with who brought us, right?
Vanderbilt-Tennessee under 41. Consistency to entertainment hunters is like tradition to Tevye in "Fiddler on the Roof." Which brings us to the under and Vandy - as tried and true as Ward and June Cleaver in this cruel world of entertainment hunting. This is the scariest over/under for the season for the Commodores. We have made a lot of entertainment with this wager - taking the under the total number of points Vegas sets means the combined score will be less than the total set, which in this case is 41 - as the under is 10-0-1 in Vandy games this year. It's hard to remember any unbeaten season in entertainment hunting, but that's where Vandy is with its stout defense and miserable quarterback situation. Do we think the Vols could put 41 on the board by themselves? It's certainly possible, but at this point if the final is 52-50 and it goes over before halftime, don't we owe it to ourselves, the Commodores, the angels of Thanksgiving and these United States of America to ride this wave until the end. Say it with us: "Consistency."
Last week against the spread: 4-3 (57.1 percent)
This season against the spread: 46-32 (59.0 percent)
(The rivalry week edition)
1. How bad will Alabama beat Auburn? The line is 14 and considering the sloppiness of the Auburn offense and the overwhelming size and talent of the Alabama defensive front, it could get really ugly, really quickly.
2. Georgia-Georgia Tech. We should likely call this one Good, Old-Fashioned Indifference. Sure, there's the dislike for each team, but they may be matched in a lot of circles among these fan bases by the disdain for the current head coaches at the moment.
3. South Carolina, dream catcher. The Gamecocks' miserable season that featured the Ol' Ball Quitter banging it in the middle of the year comes to an end this weekend. There will be no bowl and there will be a coaching search since the loss to The Citadel last week all but ended Shawn Elliott's chances to retain the job. But amazingly, South Carolina has the league's best nonconference win with the 17-13 victory over North Carolina to open the season. It is UNC's lone blemish, and amazingly, an inspired performance Saturday against rival Clemson could mean that arguably the worst team in the SEC could have wins over the two teams in the ACC title game.
4. Les Miles to the courtesy phone. Miles is coaching for his job this week against Texas A&M. The Aggies boss, Kevin Sumlin, may be facing a similar scenario this time next year. So it goes in the SEC West, where the last-place coach makes more than $4 million per year. (Good work if you can get it, right?) Let's see how the Tigers respond.
5. Egg Bowl with cheese. This one is special for those in the Magnolia State. It's also one of the more underrated rivalries on this great weekend of college football. It will be interesting to see how that awesome Ole Miss class from 2013 plays in what could be their final regular-season game - and the most meaningful - before potentially heading to the NFL. In turn, how does Dak Prescott - he of the 550 yards of offense and seven TDs last week - cap his record-setting career in Starkville? This one will be fun.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.