Fab 4 picks (plus 2)
We enter the fifth weekend of the college football season with the knowledge that we have had three highly profitable weekends and one disastrous one.
Since these picks are for entertainment only, of course, the three weekends we have been good, we've been very good - hitting at 66.7 percent or better. The bad, though, was really bad (1-4), and risking and searching for entertainment is a total sum BID-ness.
We talk frequently about trying to find edges that can add to knowledge. Some of our favorite edges include long travel or how a team of 18-to-22-year olds can handle the emotional roller coaster of the ups and downs of the season.
A boat passes Pier A Park on the Hudson River with the New York skyline in the background on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015, in Hoboken, N.J. Officials are taking precautions for the rest of the week as forecasters closely follow Hurricane Joaquin. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) It's also prudent to pay attention to the weather. Hurricane Joaquin is going to dump buckets of rain - there's a 100-percent chance of rain in the forecast for most of the East Coast - on a number of games.
What does that mean? It means unpredictable conditions that could mean more fumbles. It also hurts teams that prefer to throw the ball, and it more times than not causes coaches to get even more conservative. Which is saying something, because other than a few outliers a collection of college football coaches falls somewhere between a Fortune 500 board meeting and a Tea Party cookout on the conservative scale.
With that knowledge, let's hunt some entertainment.
SMU-East Carolina over the 65. This game screams 45-42. In fact, and this is not our normal M.O., but if you want numbers, try these numbers: These teams surrender a combined average of 74 points per game.
Texas A&M minus-6.5 over Mississippi State. We are loyal to a fault, and A&M has cashed for us multiplied times this year. Getting the better team at home for less than a TD seems quite advantageous.
Oregon minus-7 over Colorado. Buy the half here of course. When hunting entertainment, be careful of the overreaction. There's some knee-jerk, head-spinning overreaction about the Oregon Ducks, who were roasted by a better-than-expected Utah bunch last week. Getting a perennial top-15 team - and the talent and recruiting that comes with that - at a team ranked in the upper-60s on most power-rankings seems like a bargain.
Duke-Boston College under the 40. Get on this line now. Here's what we know: Each team is conservative and well-coached. Each team is stingy defensively - Boston College's defense has allowed 31 points in four games; Duke has allowed 46 in four games. Plus, this game will be played in a driving rainstorm. This screams 14-10.
Georgia running back Nick Chubb (27) tries to break free from South Carolina linebacker Skai Moore (10) during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015, in Athens, Ga.Ole Miss minus-6.5 at Florida. Florida riding as high as they have been since Tebow was in town and eligible. The biggest mismatch this week among major college teams may be between the Ole Miss front seven and the Florida offensive line. This line may grow, too, so get on it now.
Alabama plus-2.5 at Georgia. It's tough to imagine Alabama starting the season 0-2 in the SEC. It's also tough to imagine Grayson Lambert continuing his torrid run - he's thrown fewer incompletions (2) than Alabama counterpart Jake Coker has interceptions (3) in the last two games. But mainly, it's almost impossible to see anyone out-Alabama Alabama, and with a pro-style set highlighted by running back Nick Chubb and a tough defense, that's what Georgia's going to try to do. It would be wise to buy the hook to get it a field goal, but we think Alabama wins the game outright.
Last week against the spread: 4-2 (66.7 percent)
Season against the spread: 13-9 (59.1 percent)
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SEC items of interest
1. Alabama-Georgia in a big-boy, buckle-up battle. Two of the most physical and potentially most talented teams in the SEC and the country meet Saturday. It should be a great one - and we're interested to see how many folks tune in - that could be rerun in Atlanta come December.
2. The Leonard Fournette Show. Dude is a ninja. Period. If you are unaware of his super ninja skills - well YouTube is full of highlights - know this: Herschel Walker says Fournette right now is better than Walker was. Say what?
Herschel Walker3. The could've been contenders bowl. Arkansas goes to Tennessee for a game that many thought would be the springboard for the victor to have a shot at winning its division. Now, each is looking for some much-needed momentum and a win to placate an unruly and antsy fan base that is now surprisingly unsure whether their third-year coach is the guy to complete the rebuilding project.
4. Fittingly, the fourth quarter of UT-Arkansas. How bad has the final quarter been for these teams? Well, the numbers are staggering. For the Vols, after the meltdown against Florida, UT has two of the three losses this year by a team that led by 13-or-more in the fourth quarter. In fact, after the Titans melted down last week too and blew a 27-14 lead to Indianapolis, the Nashville Predators tweeted out that Tennessee was truly a hockey state because all the teams only played three periods. Ouch-standing. Not to be outdone in the final quarter, Arkansas is 0-9 under Bielema in games decided by 10 points or less and led Texas A&M 21-13 for most of the fourth quarter last week before losing 28-21 in overtime.
5. Mid-state supremacy. We'll admit it, we're more than a little intrigued about Vandy going on the the road, and traveling 30 minutes east to MTSU. The game is an even line in the eyes of Vegas. Say what you want about Vandy being a coin-flip pick against a, hey what conference is Middle in again? Nevermind. We know this for sure: Vandy head coach Derek Mason is going to be an excellent defensive coordinator somewhere out west next year.
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Baseball
It is October after all, and for the most part once the ball that bounces funny starts bouncing funny, the ol' National Pastime is past its time.
St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Jon Jay (19) and right fielder Jason Heyward (22) celebrate a 3-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates in a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Monday, Sept. 28, 2015. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) Still, October is different.
So what do we know?
We know that the National League playoff field is set. We know that the Mets won the East, the Cardinals clinched the Central last night and the Dodgers have wrapped the West.
We also know the wildcat teams. The only remaining variable is whether the Wildcard playoff game will be in Pittsburgh or Chicago. It almost assuredly will be in Pittsburgh, which leads the Cubs by 2.5 games and plays its final three games at home while the Cubs have four road games.
We know most of the American League, but there is some intrigue around the AL West. Texas leads Houston by 2.5 and the Los Angeles Angels by three. Texas hosts the Angels for a four-game series starting tonight. The Houston Astros play three at Arizona.
The Angels and the Astros are separated by a half-game for the final Wildcard spot.
Toronto and Kansas City have already wrapped up the AL East.
Welcome to October.
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This and that
- There was a lot of preseason buzz about the San Diego Padres and the Washington Nationals. The Houston Astros were the talk of baseball entering August. All three have completely underwhelmed after high hopes or promising starts. What do those collapses have in common? Officially, nothing. But from the superstition files, it's true that Taylor Swift performed in each of those teams stadiums before a terrible skid. Talk about bad blood.
FILE - In this Friday, July 10, 2015, file photo, singer Taylor Swift performs during her "1989" world tour at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Easily the most important pop star of today, now Swift’s star power has reached even greater heights and stretched outside of music, thanks to her uber successful, star-studded 1989 World Tour. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP, File) - Count the 5-at-10 among those interested to see how Mike Vick handles the reins as QB1 of the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight against Baltimore. Man, the Steelers have weapons, and will welcome back deep-threat Martravious Bryant from his four-game suspension. Baltimore, however, knows a loss all but ends the season. Good times.
- OK, we're going even further down the rabbit hole. For all the hand-wringing of the "cost of attendance" movement, now the courts are saying that the NCAA violates anti-trust laws by not sharing with athletes but is striking down the $5,000 stipend. That sounds like what we have been saying around these parts for a while: Which is the bigger ethical violation? Not paying the athletes or comparatively paying them slave wages?
- Thought this was an interesting spin from CBSsports.com in which one of their columnists ranks every starting NFL QB in order on who gets the most criticism. Jay Cutler ranks tops in the league at something.
- Colin Cowherd doesn't like espartos - the sports played on video games - and makes fun of those that play them regularly. Well, Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward took issue with it and fired back with an entertaining Twitter barrage. Yes, the retweets actually have images in which Cowherd looks like both Bevis and Butthead. Amazing.
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Today's question
There are a bevy of things to discuss.
San Francisco Giants Travis Ishikawa reacts after hitting a walk-off three-run home run during the ninth inning of Game 5 of the National League baseball championship series against the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014, in San Francisco. The Giants won 6-3 to advance to the World Series.On this day in 1903 the Boston Americans play the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first game of the modern World Series.
Happy Birthday, World Series.
In that direction, what is the Rushmore of World Series moments ( and know that as a Dodgers fan, it's going to be hard to keep Kirk Gibson off of it)?
Go - and remember the mailbag.