We enter the fifth weekend of the college football season with the knowledge that we have had three highly profitable weekends and a disastrous one.
These picks are for entertainment purposes only, of course, but when we've been good we've been very good - hitting at 66.7 percent or better. The bad, though, was really bad (1-4), and risking and searching for entertainment is a total-sum business.
We talk frequently about trying to find edges that can add to knowledge. Some of our favorite edges include long travel or how a team of 18-to-22-year-olds can handle the emotional roller coaster of the ups and downs of the season.
It's also prudent to pay attention to the weather. Hurricane Joaquin is going to dump buckets of rain on a number of games. There's a 100 percent chance in the forecast for most of the East Coast.
What does that mean? It means unpredictable conditions that could mean more fumbles. It also hurts teams that prefer to throw the ball, and it more times than not causes coaches to get even more conservative. Which is saying something, because other than a few outliers a collection of college football coaches falls somewhere between a Fortune 500 board meeting and a Tea Party cookout on the conservative scale.
With that knowledge, let's hunt some entertainment.
SMU-East Carolina over the 65. This game screams 45-42. In fact, this is not our normal M.O., but if you want numbers, try these numbers: These teams surrender a combined average of 74 points per game.
Texas A&M minus-6.5 over Mississippi State. We are loyal to a fault, and A&M has cashed for us multiple times this year. Getting the better team at home for less than a TD seems quite advantageous.
Oregon minus-7 over Colorado. Buy the half here, of course. When hunting entertainment, be careful of the overreaction. There's some knee-jerk, head-spinning overreaction about the Oregon Ducks, who were roasted by a better-than-expected Utah bunch last week. Getting a perennial top-15 team - and the talent and recruiting that comes with that - at a team ranked in the upper 60s on most power rankings seems like a bargain.
Duke-Boston College under the 40. Get on this line now. Here's what we know: Each team is conservative and well-coached. Each team is stingy defensively - Boston College's defense has allowed 31 points in four games; Duke has allowed 46 in four games. Plus, this game will be played in a driving rainstorm. This screams 14-10.
Ole Miss minus-6.5 at Florida. Florida's Gators are riding as high as they have been since Tim Tebow was in town and eligible. The biggest mismatch this week among major college teams may be between the Ole Miss front seven and the Florida offensive line. This line may grow, too, so get on it now.
Alabama plus-2.5 at Georgia. It's tough to imagine Alabama starting the season 0-2 in the SEC. It's also tough to imagine Grayson Lambert continuing his torrid run - he's thrown fewer incompletions (2) than Alabama counterpart Jake Coker has interceptions (3) in the last two games. But mainly, it's almost impossible to see anyone out-Alabama Alabama, and with a pro-style set highlighted by running back Nick Chubb and a tough defense, that's what Georgia's going to try to do. It would be wise to buy the hook to get it a field goal, but we think Alabama wins the game outright.
Last week against the spread: 4-2 (66.7 percent)
Season against the spread: 13-9 (59.1 percent)
*****
SEC items of interest
1. Alabama-Georgia in a big-boy, buckle-up battle. Two of the most physical and potentially most talented teams in the SEC and the country meet Saturday. It should be a great one - and we're interested to see how many folks tune in - that could be rerun in Atlanta come December.
2. The Leonard Fournette Show. Dude is a ninja. Period. If you are unaware of his super ninja skills - well, YouTube is full of highlights - know this: Herschel Walker says Fournette right now is better than Walker was. Say what?
3. The "could've been contenders" bowl. Arkansas goes to Tennessee for a game that many thought would be the springboard for the victor to have a shot at winning its division. Now each is looking for some much-needed momentum and a win to placate an unruly and antsy fan base that now is surprisingly unsure whether its third-year coach is the guy to complete the rebuilding project.
4. Fittingly, the fourth quarter of UT-Arkansas. How bad has the final quarter been for these teams? Well, the numbers are staggering. After the meltdown against Florida, UT has two of the three losses this year by a team that led by 13 or more in the fourth quarter. In fact, after the Titans melted down last week, too, and blew a 27-14 lead to Indianapolis, the Nashville Predators tweeted out that Tennessee was truly a hockey state because all the teams played only three periods. Ouch-standing. Not to be outdone in the final quarter, Arkansas is 0-9 under Bielema in games decided by 10 points or less and led Texas A&M 21-13 for most of the fourth quarter last week before losing 28-21 in overtime.
5. Midstate supremacy. We'll admit it, we're more than a little intrigued about Vanderbilt going on the the road and traveling 30 minutes east to Middle Tennessee State. The game is an even line in the eyes of Vegas. Say what you want about Vandy being a coin-flip pick against a, hey what conference is Middle in again? Never mind. We know this for sure: Vandy head coach Derek Mason is going to be an excellent defensive coordinator somewhere out West next year.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.