Buckle up, we got wordy today.
From the "Talks too much" studios, mailbag folks.
Fab 4 (plus 3) picks
As always, these picks are against the spread of Vegasinsider.com on Thursday morning. And, as always, they are for entertainment purposes only.
Last week was a tough lesson in the hunt for entertainment. We picked eight games, and had three painful gambling bounces go the wrong way.
Bounce 1: Western Kentucky, giving up 33.5, had a 55-14 lead with less than six minutes to play. Two cosmetic touchdowns from North Texas, including a hurried, semi-Hail Mary TD pass with 14 seconds left, lead to a spread crunching 55-28 final.
Bounce 2: Georgia Tech outguns Pittsburgh 482-391, but Pitt converts two fourth-down tries on a 14-play drive that covers all of 31 yards (yes, a 14-play, 31-yard drive is more amazing than a two-play, 99-yard drive) before a 56-yard field goal is the difference in a 31-28 win. If it goes to overtime the way Tech was running the ball, the Jackets win easy.
Bounce 3: Temple, laying 20 to God awful Central Florida, comes out flat and still leads 14-3 before an 80-yard pick six brings CFU to 14-10. Temple outgained UCF 361-134 and UCF passed for less than 40 yards in the 30-16 loss. Still, and to make matters more bouncy, Temple scored a touchdown with less than a minute to play that would have been enough to cover, but it was negated by penalty. Temple took a knee on the next two plays.
FILE - In this Jan. 24, 2014 file photo, Don Cheadle arrives at 66th Annual DGA Awards Dinner in Los Angeles. Cheadle’s Miles Davis biopic, “Miles Ahead,” will make its premiere as the closing night film at the New York Film Festival. (Photo by Richard Shotwell Invision/AP, File) Ouch-standing, and that's the difference between 6-2 and 3-5. It was just our second negative week of the season and we're still way in the positive overall.
But in entertainment hunting, those sad tales and $4 will get you a small cup at Starbucks.
So it goes, and all you can do is settle up and either keep searching for the moments that offer entertainment or take your interest elsewhere.
Duke-Virginia Tech under 45. Duke looks like a nice play, getting points from the unranked Hokies. That's a fine play if you are so inclined. But the under looks like a strong play, and when hunting entertainment strong is better than fine. Quick stat: Duke has played six games, and the under has hit in all six games.
Missouri-Vandy under 35. Two good defenses. Two dreadful offenses. In fact, there have been four quarterbacks used by these two teams this season. Johnny McCrary, Wade Freebeck, Maty Mauck and Drew Lock. That doesn't sound like a collection of SEC quarterbacks. That sounds like the characters of the next George Clooney buddy picture with Clooney playing Freebeck, Brad Pitt playing Mauck, Matt Damon playing Lock and Don Cheadle playing McCrary as the gang gets back together to avenge the death of Clooney's sister (Wilma Freebeck, played by Julia Roberts) by a dirty defense department executive named Derek Pinkel (played by Andy Garcia). Where were we? Oh, yeah the under. We're not sure Vegas can make a college football line under 35, but we're pretty sure the first team to 10 wins this one Saturday.
Texas A&M plus-6 at Ole Miss. Each team is coming off a tough loss. Each team likes to throw the ball, and does so at an effective pace. That said, here's a guess that the Aggies pass rush will be the difference, even with Rebels offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil back on the field after missing the first seven games in the NCAA doghouse.
Vanderbilt quarterback Johnny McCrary (2) is sacked by Georgia linebacker Jordan Jenkins (59) for a 7-yard loss in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 12, 2015, in Nashville.Houston minus-20 at Central Florida. Houston is good. Like really good. Like ranked good with a coach n Tom Hermans who will be a hot commodity for a big-time job come December. Central Florida is bad. Like really bad. Like no fans at the stadium and wondering if it's time to break up with coach George O'leary bad. Three touchdowns is a low price, and this will grow before kickoff.
Toledo minus-12.5 over UMass. Toledo is 6-0, with wins over Arkansas and Iowa State. They are pretty good. OK, we try not to water down these picks with too many stats, but this analytics number is telling: Toledo, according to ESPN's football power index, is a top-30 team, with an overall efficiency of 73.7 (out of 100). That number is ahead of such blue bloods as FSU and Boise State. UMass is ranked 102nd nationally out of 128 teams with an overall efficiency of 31.1. That screams mismatch.
Bowling Green minus-14 over Kent State. KSU freshman George Bollas is making his second start at quarterback. Bowling Green senior quarterback Matt Johnson leads the nation in passing yards. Edge: Bowling Green. You can buy the half here to be safe, but the high-flying Falcons are going to put half a hundred on the board.
Clemson minus-6 at Miami. There were several line this week that Vegas wants the entertainment seeker to play. We'll call it the Goodfella Gotcha games. How is USC laying 3.5 to No. 3-ranked Utah? By one report it's the first time ever a top-three-ranked team is an underdog to an unranked team. How is Florida State, which is 45-3 since the start of 2012, only giving 6 to a Georgia Tech team that has lost five in a row? We're not sure, but we have a rule that if a line looks too good to be true, it normally is. Clemson may feel that way, but these Tigers feel a little different. This Clemson team feels like a bunch that loves its coach and has an unquestioned star at quarterback in Deshaun Watson, who is also a great team leader. Special things happen when those things collide. And Miami, which is going to fold on coach Al Golden sooner rather than later, is at the opposite end of that special scenario.
Last week against the spread: 3-5 (37.5 percent)
This season against the spread: 25-17 (59.5 percent)
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SEC items of interest
1. Tennessee handling the moment. The youthful Vols showed their mettle in the final 35 minutes of a monster win against Georgia. It was impressive, but it also was at home and with Georgia's best player gone after the first offensive snap. Heading to Alabama is a different test entirely for Tennessee. This Alabama defense may be the best Nick Saban has had in Tuscaloosa and that's high praise. The defensive line features as many as eight future NFL players. It's a monster challenge. But as the Vols scrap to return to the top of the SEC, handling monster challenges has to become doable.
Tennessee coach Butch Jones, left, talks with Alabama head coach Nick Saban before an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014, in Knoxville.2. Strength on strength. Ole Miss and Texas A&M each love to throw it, and each is pretty stout in pass defense, albeit in different ways. Ole Miss is tied for 13th nationally with 10 picks. Texas A&M is tied for 16th nationally with 20 sacks, nine of which are from All-America candidate Myles Garrett. How each team handle the running game - and A&M runs it a little bit better than the Rebels - may decide this one, and if Ole Miss star defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche does not play, well, that could be huge.
3. Postseason step. Arkansas and Auburn each had higher goals than Shreveport or Memphis in terms of postseason destinations. That said, those bowl locales are better than not going anywhere, and looking at down the road projections, the 2-4 Hogs and the 4-2 Tigers, who have an arduous November coming, each need this game Saturday to feel good about making a bowl.
4. Springboard game. Kentucky visits Mississippi State on Saturday in a game that could swing the pendulum of goals for each. The Wildcats are 4-2, and with a win here, easily could be looking at an eight-win season or more. Mississippi State is 5-2 and could be staring at the same scenario. A win pushes either team into the conversation of biggest league overachievers since Miss State was picked last in the West and UK was picked next-to-last in the East.
5. Leonard Fournette. Yes, it's against Western Kentucky, and the Tigers should win the game. But Fournette is a must-watch entity right now. Period. He leads college football in rushing with more than 1,200 yards, and at his current pace,he would need 25 yards in a 14th game (whether it's a bowl game or a playoff game) to break Barry Sanders' all-time single season rushing mark of 2,628. (Side note: Sanders in 1988 at Oklahoma State was video-game crazy good. Dude rushed for those yards in 11 games and scored 37 touchdowns.) And Fournette actually has a chance to get close to that, and that's with the LSU opener against McNeese State having been cancelled.
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Cubs lose, Cubs lose
Well, that was disappointing.
The Chicago Cubs, winners of the NL Wildcard play-in game and vanquishers of the mighty Cardinals, were little more than a speed bump in the night for the pitching-rich, Daniel Murphy-having, New York Mets.
The Cubs and their forlorn fan base - a group that is equal parts glutton for punishment and sentimental bunch - will have to wait another year.
The New York Mets celebrate after Game 4 of the National League baseball championship series against the Chicago Cubs Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015, in Chicago. The Mets won 8-3 to advance to the World Series. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh) The Mets starting pitchers were awesome, keeping the young sluggers in the middle of the Chicago lineup handcuffed. The nucleus of the Cubs future - Kris Bryant (.214 in the series), Anthony Rizzo (.214), Starlin Castro (.125) and Kyle Schwarber (.143) - was overwhelmed.
Conversely, Murphy, who had all of 14 homers this season, became Reggie Jackson in the last 10 days. He homered in each of the Mets wins in the sweep and has homered in six consecutive postseason games. His four homers were as many as the powerful Cubs team hit in the series.
Yes, the Cubs roster is loaded with youth, and yes, expectations were exceeded this year in Chicago. Yes, the lineup will get better.
But there's always a but right?
There's no way Jake Arrieta matches his Cy Young-worthy efforts of the last 10 weeks of the season. Plus, the Mets proved yet again that the postseason is made for teams with dominant arms more than dominant bats.
Yes, the Cubs will be a hit pick next year, but you still have to wonder if it will ever happen.
(Side note: The Rushmore of fan bases deserving to celebrate a title as picked on Press Row this week were the Cubs, the Browns, the Cavs and the Buffalo Bills.)
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This and that
- Speaking of baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays stayed alive with a 7-1 Game 5 win and will head back to Kansas City down 3-2.
- Brady Hoke says he would not have punted on the final play that let loose the craziness in Michigan's 27-23 loss to Michigan State. There's no reason to doubt him either, since in three of his four games against the Spartans, Hoke lost by 14, 23 and 24. So punting would not have made any sense at all when you're getting thrashed.
New England Patriots' Tom Brady celebrates after scoring on a 1-yard run against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade) - Tom Brady says he wants to play 10 more years and dominate the league until 2025. That would mean playing at a high level until he was 48, which seems unlikely. But let's say he played half that, and the way the Patriots look right now, they are the class of the league. If Brady plays until he's 43, do you set the over/under at two more Super Bowls, and if he gets six rings, he has to be the GOAT, right?
- Speaking of Brady, we're not sure how we missed a story like this one. OK, we all know you can bet on almost anything in Vegas, right? Well during last week's Colts-Pats game, the over-under on the number of times "DeflateGate" would be mentioned in the broadcast was 2.5. There is no announcer anywhere who is more in tune with the gambling interests of the game he is doing than Al Michaels, who was working the game for NBC. And what did he do? He quickly took all drama out of it by saying "DeflateGate" four times super quick. It's a fun story - unless Vegas can find out if some of Al's friends were on the over.
- Thought this was interesting: Jerry West, one of the greatest players ever and the silhouette of the NBA logo, said this week that he'd be happy for the league to change the logo to Michael Jordan. As always, Jerry West is a class dude.
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Today's question
Feel free to weigh in on any of the above. (Over/under on Brady titles if he plays five more years; will Cubs ever win it all; should NBA change its logo?)
Need more? OK, follow along.
Jonathan Lipnicki is 25 today.
For those of you who are asking, "Who?" Well, Lipnicki was the little dude that asked Jerry Maguire, "Do you know the human head weighs 8 pounds?"
What's the Rushmore of memorable little kid movie roles? Got to believe the "Sixth Sense" dude is there.
Whatcha' got (and remember the mailbag)?