As always, these picks are against the spread at vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning. And as always, they are for entertainment purposes only.
Last week was a tough lesson in the hunt for entertainment. Of eight picks, three painful gambling bounces went the wrong way.
Bounce 1: Western Kentucky, giving up 33.5 points, had a 55-14 lead with less than six minutes to play. Two cosmetic touchdowns from North Texas, including a hurried, semi-Hail Mary pass with 14 seconds left, led to a spread-crunching 55-28 final.
Bounce 2: Georgia Tech outgained Pittsburgh 482-391 in offensive yardage, but the Panthers converted two fourth-down tries on a 14-play drive that covered all of 31 yards (yes, a 14-play, 31-yard drive is more amazing than a two-play, 99-yard drive) before a 56-yard field goal was the difference in a 31-28 win. If it went to overtime, the way Tech was running the ball, the Jackets win easily.
Bounce 3: Temple, laying 20 to God-awful Central Florida, came out flat but still had a 14-3 lead before an 80-yard pick six brought UCF to 14-10. Temple outgained UCF 361-134 and UCF passed for fewer than 40 yards in the 30-16 loss. Still, and to make matters more bouncy, Temple scored a touchdown with less than a minute to play that would have been enough to cover, but it was negated by a penalty. Temple took a knee on the next two plays.
Ouch-standing, and that's the difference between 6-2 and 3-5. It was just our second negative week of the season and we're still way in the positive overall.
But in entertainment hunting, those sad tales and $4 will get you a small cup at Starbucks.
So it goes, and all you can do is settle up and either keep searching for the moments that offer entertainment or take your interest elsewhere.
Duke-Virginia Tech under 45. Duke looks like a nice play, getting points from the unranked Hokies. That's a fine play if you are so inclined. But the under looks like a strong play, and when hunting entertainment, strong is better than fine. Quick stat: Duke has played six games, and the under has hit in all six games.
Missouri-Vanderbilt under 35. Two good defenses. Two dreadful offenses. In fact, there have been four quarterbacks used by these two teams this season. Johnny McCrary and Wade Freebeck for Vandy and Maty Mauk and Drew Lock for Mizzou. That doesn't sound like a collection of Southeastern Conference quarterbacks. That sounds like the characters of the next George Clooney buddy picture, with Clooney playing Freebeck, Brad Pitt playing Mauk, Matt Damon playing Lock and Don Cheadle playing McCrary as the gang gets back together to avenge the death of Clooney's sister (Wilma Freebeck, played by Julia Roberts) by a dirty defense department executive named Derek Pinkel (played by Andy Garcia). Where were we? Oh yeah, the under. We're not sure Vegas can make a college football line under 35, but we're pretty sure the first team to 10 wins this one Saturday.
Texas A&M plus-6 at Ole Miss. Each team is coming off a tough loss. Each team likes to throw the ball and does so at an effective pace. That said, here's a guess that the Aggies' pass rush will be the difference, even with Rebels offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil back on the field after missing the first seven games in the NCAA doghouse.
Houston minus-20 at Central Florida. Houston is good. Like, really good. Like, ranked good with a coach - Tom Herman - who will be a hot commodity for a big-time job come December. UCF is bad. Like, really bad. Like, no fans at the stadium and wondering if it's time to break up with coach George O'leary bad. Three touchdowns is a low price, and this will grow before kickoff.
Toledo minus-12.5 over UMass. Toledo is 6-0, with wins over Arkansas and Iowa State. The Rockets are pretty good. OK, we try not to water down these picks with too many stats, but this analytics number is telling: Toledo, according to ESPN's football power index, is a top-30 team, with an overall efficiency of 73.7 (out of 100). That number is ahead of such blue bloods as Florida State and Boise State. UMass is ranked 102nd nationally out of 128 teams, with an overall efficiency of 31.1. That screams mismatch.
Bowling Green minus-14 over Kent State. Freshman George Bollas is making his second start at quarterback for Kent State. Bowling Green senior quarterback Matt Johnson leads the nation in passing yards. Edge: Bowling Green. You can buy the half here to be safe, but the high-flying Falcons are going to put half a hundred on the board.
Clemson minus-6 at Miami. There were several lines this week Vegas wants the entertainment seeker to play. We'll call them the Goodfella Gotcha games. How is USC laying 3.5 to No. 3 Utah? By one report, it's the first time a team ranked in the top three is an underdog to an unranked team. How is Florida State, which is 45-3 since the start of 2012, only giving 6 to a Georgia Tech team that has lost five in a row? We're not sure, but we have a rule that if a line looks too good to be true, it normally is. Clemson may feel that way, but these Tigers feel a little different. This Clemson team feels like a bunch that loves its coach and has an unquestioned star at quarterback in Deshaun Watson, who is also a great team leader. Special things happen when those things collide. And Miami, which is going to fold on coach Al Golden sooner than later, is at the opposite end of that special scenario.
Last week against the spread: 3-5 (37.5 percent)
This season against the spread: 25-17 (59.5 percent)
SEC ITEMS OF INTEREST
1. Tennessee handling the moment. The youthful Vols showed their mettle in the final 35 minutes of a monster win against Georgia. It was impressive, but it also was at home with Georgia's best player (sophomore running back Nick Chubb) gone after the first offensive snap. Heading to Alabama is a different test entirely for Tennessee. This Alabama defense may be the best Nick Saban has had in Tuscaloosa, and that's high praise. The defensive line features as many as eight future NFL players. It's a monster challenge. But as the Vols scrap to return to the top of the SEC, handling monster challenges has to become doable.
2. Strength on strength. Ole Miss and Texas A&M each love to throw it, and each is pretty stout in pass defense, albeit in different ways. Ole Miss is tied for 13th nationally with 10 interceptions. Texas A&M is tied for 16th nationally with 20 sacks, nine from All-America candidate Myles Garrett. How each team handles the running game - and A&M runs it a little bit better than the Rebels - may decide this one, and if Ole Miss star defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche does not play, well, that could be huge.
3. Postseason step. Arkansas and Auburn each had higher goals than Shreveport or Memphis in terms of postseason destinations. That said, those bowl locales are better than not going anywhere, and looking at projections, the 2-4 Hogs and the 4-2 Tigers (who have an arduous November coming) each need this game to feel good about making a bowl.
4. Springboard game. Kentucky visits Mississippi State in a matchup that could swing the pendulum of goals for each. The Wildcats are 4-2, and with a win here, they easily could be looking at an eight-win season or better. Mississippi State is 5-2 and could be staring at the same scenario. A win pushes either team into the conversation of biggest league overachievers - Mississippi State was picked last in the West and Kentucky was picked next-to-last in the East.
5. Leonard Fournette. Yes, it's against Western Kentucky, and the Tigers should win the game. But Fournette is a must-watch entity right now. Period. He leads college football with more than 1,200 rushing yards, and at his current pace, he would need 25 yards in a 14th game (whether it's a bowl or a playoff) to break Barry Sanders' all-time single-season rushing mark of 2,628. (Side note: Sanders in 1988 at Oklahoma State was video-game crazy good. Dude rushed for those yards in 11 games and scored 37 touchdowns.) Fournette actually has a chance to get close to that, and that's with the LSU opener against McNeese State having been canceled by bad weather.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.