Bill Hancock, executive director of the College Football Playoff, speaks during Big 12 Media Days.Bill Hancock is the executive director of the College Football Playoff. Recently asked about Clemson athletic director Dan Radakovich recusing himself from the selection committee's talks when the undefeated Tigers are up for discussion, Hancock replied, "They are so proud and devoted to the protocol. If somebody strays from the protocol, it's sort of like spitting in church. You just don't do it."
Protocol or no protocol, a week from today the CFC folks will release the first rankings of the 2015 season regarding the eventual participants in the four-team playoff.
Given the fact that eight undefeated teams remain from the Power Five conferences - Atlantic Coast, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern - it's fair to assume that the top four will come from those leagues. So if you're one of the four remaining unbeatens from a non-Power Five league - Memphis, Houston, Toledo and Temple, who are all 7-0 - well, you picked a bad year to be special.
But because I'm not a member of the CFP selection committee, allow me a chance in advance to spit on its early four favorites, if only because there would appear no way it logically could choose a one-loss Alabama over all those undefeated programs.
Using my Football Analytical Intelligence Rating (FAIR), I'm going to rank the top 12 teams in this week's Associated Press poll by the quality of their victories to date. Under my system, a win over a top-10 foe at the time you played it is worth three points, a win over a Top 25 opponent is worth two points and a win over an opponent "also receiving votes" at the time you played it is worth a single point. A road win over a ranked opponent garners another point. Losses to Top 25 opponents remove a point. Losses to unranked foes cost you two points.
By that format, my top four teams one week from the debut of the CFP's Fortunate Four would be:
1) LSU (7-0), 9 points
2) Alabama (7-1), 9 points
3) Michigan State (8-0), 6 points
4) Iowa (7-0), 6 points.
Obviously, there is much football yet to be played. LSU must visit Alabama on Nov. 7, for example, after both teams are off this weekend. After that, Alabama still faces road trips to menacing Mississippi State and Auburn.
Michigan State must still face reigning national champ Ohio State, which is rated No. 1 in the AP poll but has only one point from the FAIR formula - that one earned from its opening-game win over Virginia Tech, which had received votes in the preseason poll.
Other than that, the Buckeyes have beat up more bums than Mike Tyson, though the opposition quality will change with late-season contests against Michigan State (Nov. 21) and at Michigan (Nov. 28).
As for Iowa, the school that Tennessee so thoroughly slayed in the Taxslayer.com Bowl in January, the Hawkeyes have road wins over formerly ranked Wisconsin and Northwestern, though neither of those Big Ten teams is in the Top 25 at the moment.
So will those four make it? Probably not. For one thing, either Alabama or LSU is going to have one more loss. If it's the Crimson Tide, their playoff hopes are dashed. If it's LSU, the Tigers would probably need to win out, including a dominating performance in the SEC championship game.
Michigan State or Ohio State is guaranteed at least one loss, and with the Buckeyes still to face both the Spartans and Michigan in back-to-back weeks, one would assume that no more than one Big Ten team will become one of the Fortunate Four.
Then there are the ongoing seasons of Big 12 powers Baylor and TCU, along with conference brother Oklahoma State. Returning to the FAIR poll, none of those three has earned more than two points, with high-octane Baylor garnering but one.
Yet with No. 2 Baylor traveling to No. 12 Okie State on Nov. 21 and visiting No. 5 TCU the following week, as well as TCU visiting Okie State on Nov. 7, some big changes are in store for all three of those schools. You could even argue that OSU's Cowboys, by virtue of hosting both the Bears and Horned Frogs, could wind up in the CFP.
Don't sleep on Clemson, either. The Tigers currently have only three points in my FAIR poll, but with one regular-season game to go against No. 17 Florida State and a probable ACC title game yet to play, Clemson would appear to have a very good chance to make the field.
Certainly the FAIR formula isn't perfect. For one thing, because I assigned points on what teams were ranked at the time you played them rather than what they are in the latest poll, LSU and Bama have an edge because the SEC was so highly ranked early.
Going by this week's poll, for instance, the Tide would have only two points, since none of their wins are against teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Likewise, Clemson would have at least one more point because Appalachian State is getting votes this week.
But injuries also often play a role in a team's struggles. Alabama, for instance, played Georgia when running back Nick Chubb was still healthy. Everyone facing Baylor from this point forward will do so without facing quarterback Seth Russell, who was lost for the season this past weekend due to a broken bone in his neck.
There are no perfect systems or selection committees. But to be perfectly fair, difficulty of schedule must be considered. And regardless of the current rankings, the SEC would still appear to provide not only the most difficult path to an undefeated season, but the fairest measure of a playoff worthy team.
Contact Mark Wiedmer at mwiedmer@timesfreepress.com