Greeson: Fab 4 picks, plus Tennessee leads SEC things to watch

Tennessee head coach Butch Jones gets the offense organized in Nashville in this Sept. 5, 2015, file photo.
Tennessee head coach Butch Jones gets the offense organized in Nashville in this Sept. 5, 2015, file photo.

Fab 4 (plus 1 pick)

Sometimes knowing which picks to exclude is as important as which picks to include.

Last week, we hit four of five, and the lone miss was a Mississippi State pick that failed to cover at Southern Miss. Did it matter that the three other finalists - Florida State, Florida and Southern Cal - for the last spot hit?

Of course not, because there are a handful of certain gambling rules.

* Never play cards with a guy nicknamed after a city.

* Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

* Never doubt that hindsight is as pure as a mama's love.

That last one is put to the test again this week as there are a couple of playable games on the cutting-room floor. Still, we pledged to stay within the five-game count, and if it's not broken, let's not fix it.

The 4-1 start is quite acceptable. Since these picks are for entertainment purposes only, we hope you are dealing with house entertainment credits.

As for this week, we are keenly watching a couple of bankable trends.

First, it's a coaching cliche that you make the most improvement from week one to week two. Cliches happen because they prove routinely true. If that's the case, there are four games this weekend with teams making their season debuts because of last week's weather postponements.

Second, be cognizant of time zones. Teams - especially those with limited financial resources that may travel on the cheap - that cross the country are often at a supreme disadvantage.

With that in mind, let's get to work.

Louisville minus-13 over Houston. Getting the Cardinals at home for less than two touchdowns is a very appealing price. When you factor in that Louisville scored 24 points in the final quarter and a half after making a quarterback change to the fleet-footed Lamar Jackson, well, this price looks more like stealing.

Ohio State minus-40 over Hawaii. Let's do some math. This game kicks off at what feels like 9:30 a.m. for the Hawaii players, who spent at least eight hours in a plane today. Now, add in the fact that Ohio State's second- or third-team guys are still going to be able to score at will, well, that price seems more affordable.

Clemson minus-17 over Appalachian State. One team has DeShaun Watson. The other beat Howard last week - no, not Howard School or even some dude named Howard. Quick Rushmore of Howard: Dwight Howard, Howard Cosell, Howard Stern and Ron Howard; we're pretty sure none of those guys were involved in App State's win last week, either. We're also pretty sure all of those guys could suit up with the Mountaineers this week and it would not matter against Clemson.

Notre Dame minus-12 over Virginia. We're buying the Irish, especially the Green Machine defense that held Texas to its worst offensive showing since Santa Ana pulled up to the Alamo. Notre Dame held Texas to 163 yards of offense and allowed just two third-down conversions in 13 tries. Now we know some of that is on Texas, but are we ready to say Virginia is that much better offensively than the Longhorns? No, no we are not.

Arkansas minus-21 over Toledo. This is one of the four games involving a team making its season debut, as Toledo's game last week was canceled. The Rockets played about two quarters and led Stony Brook 16-7 before weather ended the opener. Arkansas is rolling and coach Bret Bielema is beaming. Now for some research (don't get spoiled): Toledo has five new starters on the offensive line, and Kareem Hunt, the leading rusher in the MAC last year with more than 1,600 yards, has been suspended for this game.

Last week against the spread: 4-1 (80 percent)

This season against the spread: 4-1 (80 percent)

*****

SEC items of interest

As we do every week in this space, we'll offer up five things to keep an eye on across the SEC.

1. Is Tennessee ready for the moment? For the first time since Phillip Fulmer was involved, Big Orange Nation has every reason to salivate about the thought of the Volunteers winning a big game. For far too long the mindset of the program and its fans has been a realistic view of hoping to compete against the best teams in the nation. Now the Vols are among them. After a river of high-profile recruiting classes, the Vols are ranked in the Associated Press poll for only the fourth time since the start of 2008. Now they have to prove they belong with the upper crust on Saturdays as much as they have on the recruiting trail.

2. Staying with the Vols-Sooners, which defense will deliver the most stops? Each offense has an onslaught of talent and a myriad of options, especially coming out of the backfield. In fact, if you were going to list the best running back tandems in the country, Oklahoma's Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon and Tennessee's Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara are among them. So the pressure on each defense - and the pressure on each offense consequently to hold serve in what appears to be a shootout - is paramount.

3. LSU opens for real. After the dress rehearsal that was the LSU rainout last week, the Tigers go to Mississippi State for a late-night kick in Starkville. MSU's Bulldogs have all-star candidate Dak Prescott at quarterback and need to find answers at other spots. The Tigers have all-star candidates all over the field and need to find answers at quarterback.

4. How many does Nick Chubb get? The star Georgia running back has nine consecutive 100-yard-plus rushing games heading into Saturday's kill shot at Vanderbilt. As bad as Vandy's home-opening, 14-12 loss against Western Kentucky was, the defense looked pretty sharp at times. Job No. 1 for every Georgia foe is to try to slow Chubb, but that's not an easy task. If we set the baseline at 150 yards - which is kind of the starting point for Chubb - we think he goes over.

5. Kentucky-South Carolina, what will happen? As TFP SEC ace and "Press Row" co-host David Paschall said on the air this week, it's been since the Rich Brooks regime that Kentucky has won an SEC road game. Yep, all the way back to 2009. That said, the Gamecocks are not going to be confused with the Fun-'n'-Gun bunch Steve Spurrier organized at Florida back in the 1990s. In a lot of ways, this could be a bowl-eliminator for two teams scanning their schedules and hunting for six wins.

Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343. Follow him on Twitter @jgreesontfp.

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