College football
OK, we are now in the single digits of chances to hunt weekend college football entertainment.
For those of you new to this space, we have been picking college football games against the spread since the start of the 2011 season. Doing a little inter web back-tracking the numbers are fairly consistent:
Last week, we were 3-2 against the spread. This season, we are 44-33 against the spread. Since the start of the 2011 season, we are 328-208-6.
That's 60 percent last week; 57.1 percent this season; and 61.2 percent over the duration. (If memory serves, we were pretty red-hot in 2012 - something like 65-plus percent - and that Christmas was very entertaining for the entire 5-at-10 family.)
We have this championship weekend, and as is custom, we will pick all of the bowl games against the spread in an effort to lift this year's number closer to that 60-percent mark with which we are accustomed. We fashioned some guidelines through the years. Weighing travel, bye weeks, quarterback metrics and old-fashioned feel.
Those things - other than the quarterback metrics - are rendered less impactful in actual conference championships, especially the neutral site games. (Well, other than Alabama playing in Atlanta, which will feel like the Eastside of the West End of T-Town.)
This now becomes about belief. Who do you believe is better, and who do you believe is playing better?
Unlike the bowl games to come, in which trying to peg which teams want to be in those specific games is paramount, everyone wants to be in conference title games. That's the primary goal in sweat-filled two-a-days in August and see-your-breath-offseason runs in February.
This Saturday. This moment. And we need channel our inner Maximus and make sure we are all entertained.
Here we go (lines from Vegasinsider.com as of Thursday morning):
Penn State plus-3 over Wisconsin. We have flipped-flopped on this game more times than we can count. We could really see a motivated Badgers defense clamp down Penn State after hearing all week about how a Penn State Big Ten title could/should mean a spot in the playoff. But here's the thing: Penn State has the most balanced offense in the league, and can hit big plays against anyone. And if you need an 'entertainment trend' to make you feel better, well, try this one: There have been five Big Ten title games and the underdog has covered in all of them. (We'd buy the half here to get a little forgiveness, but we still think the Lions win outright.)
Clemson-Virginia Tech over 57. Side note here: If you are interested in investing your hard-earned entertainment on over/under totals, take the extra effort to check out the weather. Sloppy conditions make points more precious. In this game, though, with temps in the 40s and clear skies, the Charlotte, N.C., turf could be a track meet. Virginia Tech can score in a variety of ways, and we all know what Clemson has on that side of the ball. Add in a potential last-chance Heisman statement for Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson against a Va. Tech defense that can struggle against a mobile QB, we think this zooms past eight TDs.
Washington minus-7 over Colorado. (Weather forecast: Sunny with a high of 61, low of 49 for tonight's kick.) Washington has one loss this year - a home setback against a USC team that may be the most athletic team not named Alabama in the country. Buy the half here, because it makes financial sense, but even with Colorado's two excellent corners, we think Washington is too good at the skilled positions and too balanced against a Colorado team that could feel quite pleased with themselves for just getting to the title game.
Alabama minus-24 over Florida. We think this one may be higher scoring than most think primarily because we think Alabama is going to find a lot more offensive success on the fast-track that is the Georgia Dome. And yes, normally we are a little tentative with Alabama and big lines, but did you know that Alabama is 8-3 against the spread this year. (There was no official number against UTC.) Those entertainment losses came in a one-score shootout against Ole Miss, Bama laying 37 against a Kentucky team that was better than most of us knew in October, and last week in the Iron Bowl when the late action pushed the number from 17 to 20 in the Tide's 30-12 win over Auburn. It's a ton of points, but when hunting entertainment and you look at each side of the ledger and you have to ask yourself, "How many points would it take to back Florida?" then you have to pause. How many would it take? Would you take Florida plus-28? Neither would we. Florida-plus 31? Getting closer. Florida plus 35.5? Yeah we'd likely take that. So an 11.5 point swing before you'd feel comfortable taking the underdog seems like great entertainment value.
Idaho minus-6.5 over Georgia State. Buy the half and enjoy the travel. Research alert: GSU has already fired their coach and is bagel-and-5 on the road this season. So, with that in mind, the Panthers are traveling almost 3,000 miles to Idaho to play in game that could feature snow but will be right at or below freezing from the start. Idaho players? Well, they are used to those temps and the sun setting at 4:15 in the afternoon and could reach win No, 8 in a surprising turnaround.
Troy minus-7 over Georgia Southern. This is the worst Georgia Southern team maybe in program history. The Eagles are 4-7, but they have lost seven of their last eight and are just 2-9 against the spread. This has all the makings of a 'finish the string' game for the hosts in Statesboro. For Troy, this could be win No. 10 on the season.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread (60.0 percent)
This season: 44-33 against the spread (57.1 percent).
Baseball comes to its senses
OK, the worm finally has turned.
There has been enough distance between the All-Star Game tie debacle and current times for common sense to regain hold of Major League Baseball. A person familiar with the negotiations (that guy or gal certainly knows a whole of stuff all things considered) told the AP that baseball has come to its senses and will award World Series home-field advantage to the pennant winner with the best regular-season record.
It is part of the new collective bargaining agreement that the may be voted on as soon as today.
Also of note, as part of the deal, the AP is reporting that the minimum time for players going on the disabled list will drop from 15 days to 10. So there's that.
Here are some of the other details of the deal, which was approved Wednesday night in principle but still needs to be voted on by the owners.
Teams will not forfeit a first-round pick when signing a high-priced free agent. Teams that lose a free agent who has a qualifying offer from his previous team will only receive a pick if the free agent signs a deal worth more than $50 million and that pick will vary depending on market size.
Luxury tax thresholds will escalate upward but teams that exceed the threshold will pay dearly. The threshold will be $195 million for 2017, which is a $6 increase from last year and will grow to $197 million in '18, $206 million in '19, $208 million in '20 and $210 million in '21.
The tax rate starts at 20 percent for teams that violate it the first time, 30 percent of the payroll for second-time offenders and 50 percent every year after that. Plus, there is a 12 percent surtax for teams that are between $20-and-$40 million over the threshold and as much as a 90 percent charge for teams $40 million over.
There are still details to work out, including discussions about raising the minimum salary, which is $507,500 right now, and the discussions about more off days, earlier start times for games before a travel day and even an increase in meal money on the road.
But baseball got the deal done and after the most popular postseason in a quarter century, that was job No. 1.
File-This July 31, 1972, file photo shows Jack Nicklaus kneeling as partner Arnold Palmer looks over his shoulder while they study a putt on 18th green at Laurel Valley Golf Club at the PGA National Team Championship in Ligonier, Pa. Palmer, who made golf popular for the masses with his hard-charging style, incomparable charisma and a personal touch that made him known throughout the golf world as "The King," died Sunday, Sept. 25, 2016, in Pittsburgh. He was 87. (AP Photo, File) The Golden Bear speak
When Jack Nicklaus speaks it normally makes good sense to listen.
The Golden Bear is an all-timer. The best golfer ever. An unbelievable business man. Great family guy. You name it, and Jack's likely better than the rest of us at it.
Well, he spoke to a golf convention earlier this week and some of the news was rather horrifying for those of us who love golf.
"Fact is, more golf courses have closed in the U.S. in each of the last 10 years than have opened," Nicklaus told the Golf Business Forum on Tuesday. "This is thanks in great part to changes in the golf ball and the distance it travels. Courses have had to change along with it. It's now a slower game and more expensive than before, and that can't be a good thing."
The discussions about golf balls have long been a hot-button issue.
Companies do not want to hear it, but it's true.
Sadly, though, that's not the biggest thing hurdle staring the sport in the face as we speak, however.
The game is very expensive and pretty slow all things considered, two big obstacles in a world in which we are looking to save more and in which young people need almost constant stimulation.
And that has nothing to do with whether you're playing a ProVI or a Callaway.
This and that
- Here are the 'Color Rush' uniforms for tonight's Dallas-Minnesota game. Side note: Dallas' collection of young talent and history make them fun to watch right now.
- Tiger Woods tees off today. Color us intrigued.
- UNC and Indiana played a rough and tumble college basketball game last night, and it didn't mean all that much in the grand scheme of things when we get to March. Please do not let college football get there. So it goes.
- Another game, another triple double for Russell Westbrook, who now has triple doubles in four straight games and is averaging a triple double for the season.
- Also of note, Karl-Anthony Towns scored 47 points last night in a loss to the Knicks. KAT is the youngest Minnesota player to score more than 40; he is the third youngest player to have a 45-point, 15-rebound game behind Durant and Shaq. Also of note, the last six 40-point, 15-rebound games in the NBA have been accomplished by former Kentucky players. (Four by Anthony Davis, one by DeMarcus Cousins and last night by Big KAT.)
Today's question
Have you submitted a mailbag question? If not why not?
There are a lot of things we could ask:
Now that the all-star game is back to being a true exhibition, what's the dumbest rule in sports? Go.
As for today's date, well, on this day in 1953, Hugh Hefner released a little magazine he called Playboy. So there's that. Also, Michael Jackson releases Thriller today in 1982. Let's go there, what's your Rushmore of best albums/CDs.
Go and remember the mailbag.