Great week folks.
Thanks to everyone for playing along. We got a bunch of questions about the Super Bowl, and we kind of combined them all into one space.
(We also got one late, very interesting question that we will roll into next week. So thanks for that Terry.)
Enjoy the game.
From the "Talks too much" studios,
From a ton of you:
Super Bowl pick? What's a prop bet? Rushmore of Super Bowl foods? Best Super Bowl games - entertainment options - for a party?
A great back-and-forth this week and a lot of folks asking for Super Bowl stuff.
OK, after a high-energy college season that roamed right at 60 percent for most of the season, our NFL postseason picks have been staggeringly mediocre.
Yes, a 2-2 mark in the conference championship round left us with the coin-flipping mark of 6-6. We were 2-2 through each weekend, and now face the Super Bowl with one last chance to push above the .500 mark. Since this is the last game for seven months, let's roll the dice.
Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton (1) scrambles against the Cleveland Browns during the second half of an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Dec. 21, 2014. The Panthers won 17-13. (AP Photo/Bob Leverone)Carolina minus-5.5. The main reason I have pause here is that (Warning: research alert - do not get spoiled) Vegas has lost money on the game line of the Super Bowl exactly twice since 1991. The public made money on the New York Giants as a 12-point favorite in 2008 when they beat the Pats straight up. The public also got the best of Vegas when San Francisco covered as an 18.5-point favorite over San Diego in 1995. According to Vegasinsider.com, 68 percent of the public is on Carolina and laying the points. One Vegas analyst claims that as much as 71 percent of the public's money is on the Panthers, which would be the largest divide in Super Bowl history. The line started around 3.5 10 days ago and grew to as large as 6 before settling this morning at 5.5.
And if we know anything about the pursuit of entertainment, it's that Vegas knows best. (That also explains the line moving that much as the establishment tries to shade the favorites.) Now this is before the heavy-hitters in Vegas - also know as the sharps - have stepped to the window, so they could alter the direction of this at least somewhat. (Now to be fair, Vegas wants Denver to cover but not lose the game. As of Friday morning, more than 70 percent of the public's investment on the money line - betting Denver to win the game outright - was on Peyton Manning and the Broncos at +190. (Plus-190 means you win $190 if you bet $100.)
There are plenty of trend numbers to back Denver even more against the spread. It's been almost a decade since a favorite of more than a field goal won the game and covered. (Indy did it as a 7-point favorite in 2007 over Chicago with a 29-17 win.) Teams that score 40 or more points in a playoff game - like the Panthers did against Arizona - are 1-8-1 against the number the next playoff game in the last 10 and 4-22-1 against the spread since 1996. Ouch-standing.
Still, this is a matchup that leans toward Carolina in almost every phase. So you do you trust, your eyes or the numbers? Wait, don't answer that.
Under the 45. Is this a little bit of a hedge to play off playing the favorite? Yes it is. (A 'hedge' bet is a play that seems to balance another bet without being directly linked to it. For example, taking the under here is a 'hedge' bet because if the total moves north of 45, it will be because the Carolina offense is really clicking. It's really hard to see Denver scoring more than a couple of touchdowns against a Panthers defense that led the NFL in turnovers. So, by taking the under, this bet at least in part 'hedges' your entertainment investment against the possibility of Carolina struggling against the best defense in the league and winning say 20-17.) That said, the Carolina defense is outstanding - and really not getting enough discussion this week - and certainly can deliver on each end of covering the line and keeping this one under.
Prediction: 27-13.
Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning passes against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half in an NFL football divisional playoff game, Sunday, Jan. 17, 2016, in Denver. (AP Photo/Joe Mahoney)As for the potential props, well, let's have a little fun. (To answer the question, propositional bets are exactly what they sound like. Vegas presents several 'propositions' be it the coin flip, what the first score will be, length of the National Anthem, what have you, for bettors to play. This started back in 1986 when the hype around the Chicago Bears and William "The Refrigerator" Perry was everywhere. Vegas allowed people to bet whether The Fridge would score a TD and bettors ate it up. And won when Perry scored. The rest is history, and now the list of prop bets offered by West Gate casino in Vegas fills 33 pages http://www.vegasinsider.com/visports/nfl/westgate-super-book-2016.pdf.)
Let's pick five props, shall we? And let's 'imagine' we are placing, say 100 entertainment vouchers on each. Deal? Deal.
We'll go tails on the flip at even money.
Over 5.0 total sacks for both teams at even money.
Over 2.5 number of players to attempt a pass. (Great odds here at +200, too.)
Over 12.5 on longest run by Cam Newton at even money.
Over 1.5 number of field goals by Denver's Brandon McManus at even money.
As for some of the crazy ones, well, we just know that you can bet which will be greater the total points for the Kings and Celtics in the first quarter of their game Sunday or the yards of Brad Nortman's first punt. (And the Kings+Celtics are an 8.5-point favorite. Seriously) Or you could bet who has more Hofsta's basketball team's score in the first half (-13.5) against the Broncos' total score. Or will Bubba Watson have more birdies Sunday in Phoenix than Emmanuel Sanders has receptions in the Super Bowl. Or even, well you get the idea, but there's also Super Bowl props that involve hockey, MMA and international soccer.
As for our Rushmore of Super Bowl party food, well, we'll turn to the Mrs. 5-at-10 here. (And know this: She can really deliver on the party food.)
With her input, the easy version is wings (a given, right), sausage-queso dip, jalapeño rolls (she dices jalapeños and puts them inside tortillas spread with cream cheese. Easy-peasy, lemon squeezy and quite delicious), and chili (especially good for a crowd that's looking for more than finger food). She also found this link on the web for some of the more adventurous hosts among you http://www.buzzfeed.com/jessicaprobus/28-best-things-about-watching-the-superbowl#.ixlpMbJqw.
As for Super Bow games, OK, this is more up our alley. Here are a few with an effort at an easy explanation. (If you have questions, email us at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com)
- The big board. You need a poster board and draw a 10x10 grid. (Leave space across the top and down the left side. Here's an example https://www.google.com/search?q=super+bowl+board&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwirodyO2-DKAhUGRiYKHY7OBeUQsAQIHA&biw=1152&bih=588#imgrc=e4Y0KD3POw1IbM%3A.) Have all your guests randomly fill out the grid with their initials. If you have a large crowd you can charge a $1 a square (or more even). If you have a smaller group, it can be less per square, because it works best if all the squares are accounted for. After the grid is full randomly draw numbers 0-through-9 from a hat and place them in order as you draw them from left to right for the Panthers across the top. Then do it again, in order form top to bottom, down the left side for the Broncos. The scoring grid now has a winner for every possible score. You can payout at the end of each quarter or hold it for the final or anything in between. Remember it's the last digit when the scores reach double digits. This is the most common game.
- As for others, well, feel free to be the house and offer various prop bets to anyone interested. Use the link above if needed for more ideas. Remember to only allow the even-money bets like coin flips and/or over unders. If you start offering odds, the risk grows and it could confuse a a lot of folks.
- One year we played pass the jar with quarters. Simple process and lots of fun. We passed a literal jar to everyone playing. If there was a score (field goal, TD, safety - anything other than an extra point) on the play you kept the money in the jar. If there wasn't you put a quarter in the jar and passed it along. You could do this with any coin, but the host needs to have a lot of change on hand.
- One year we had a $1 lottery jersey draw. For 1 entertainment note - remember all wagers are for entertainment only - you got to draw a number from the hat. The first lottery was for the first player to score; the second lottery was for MVP. Keep the same jersey number for each. Do all the major players for each team (Carolina 1; Denver 18; etc.) and remember to put Denver field and Carolina field in the hat too to cover everyone else.
As for the breakdown of the game, oh yeah, the game. Man it's easy to get distracted with all the side stories.
Simply put, we believe Carolina's dictates the game. Denver is going to have to find creative ways to generate offense, and that still may not be enough. Here are five items/players we think will dictate this one:
Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (88) celebrates a touchdown with Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh) Can Denver wide outs Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders have a big game? We don't think so, but one of these cats is going to have to go north of 100 receiving yards and since Manning's arm strength is not what it once was, that means making catches and plays after the catch. We put each of these cats here because one likely will get the Josh Norman treatment, meaning the other needs to deliver.
Can Luke Kuechly squash the Denver running game? We think so. Kuechly is arguably the best defensive playmaker in the league, and with Star Lotulelie and Kawann Short in front of him, he has every opportunity to stay clean and make those plays. (We love Kuechly as an MVP pick at 25-to-1.)
Is Cam ready for the stage? This is a bigger question than race and dancing and all the rest. The stakes in front of Newton right now are off the charts. Life-changing even. Can he handle it? We think so, but this, in our view - Cam coming out wild and/or wild-eyed and loose with the football - is Denver's best chance to win.
Can Manning find three big plays? Denver would take 20 points right now and roll the dice with their defense, right? For Manning, those big plays can be catching Carolina off-balance and changing into a run play. (C.J. Anderson's big run for the game-changing field goal against the Patriots comes to mind.) This - Manning's mind and his ability to control and dictate the game - may be Denver's second best chance to win the game.
Who will be the unknown we're talking about come Monday? (And or which commercial steals the show?)
As for the player, we'll go Kurt Coleman, the Panthers safety as really making a name for himself and the Bud Light commercial with Amy Schumer and Seth Rogen as the one people are talking about Monday.
Thoughts?